Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -6, O/U 48
• Cardinals vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will run at a blistering pace. Last week, with Kyler Murray back, the Cardinals were seventh in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
• The Texans are back to sprinting and passing a ton, baby! Over their last two games, they have been second in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: Murray looked good in his first game back, with 7.8 yards per attempt and 33 rushing yards (six carries). He had three red zone carries and a rushing score. He finished eighth in highly accurate throw rate last week. Murray was QB13 for the week with zero passing scores and a pick. Since Week 5, the wheels have fallen off the Texans pass defense. They have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, the second-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. Murray should smash as a high-end QB1 this week. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

C.J. Stroud: Stroud has been so much fun to watch weekly. He is the QB6 in fantasy with QB1 games in three of the last four weeks (QB12, QB1, QB9). Since Week 4, Stroud has been operating on another level, ranking second in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, tenth in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Stroud will create a masterpiece with dots this week against Arizona. Since Week 5, they have surrendered the fifth-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. Stroud should have no problems dismantling them with deep passing. Arizona, during the same span, has given up the second-highest deep passer rating and the fifth-highest depth-adjusted completion rate. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

James Conner: Conner returned to the lineup last week and played 63% of the snaps rolling up 16 rushing attempts (zero targets) with 73 rushing yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Conner is still rocking the fifth-best explosive run rate, tenth-highest missed tackles forced per attempt, and the seventh-best yards after contact per attempt. Conner will have difficulty posting a standout stat line this week. Since Week 5, Houston has been among the best run defenses in the NFL allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the lowest yards per carry to zone runs (2.21 ypc). 53.6% of Conner’s runs have been via zone runs. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Dameon Pierce: Pierce has been ruled out. 

Devin Singletary: Singletary turned on legend mode last week. He played 81% of the snaps turning 31 touches into 161 total yards (one touchdown). He is a good bet for 15-20 touches this week. Among 47 qualifying backs, Singletary is seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. The biggest issue for Singletary is that Arizona has been improving as a run defense. Since Week 5, they have the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, allowed the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (3.8). 51.1% of Singletary’s runs have been on gap plays. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Last week, in Murray’s return, Brown handled only a 12.5% target share, a 22.1% air-yard share, and a 15.4% first-read share (fourth on the team). Prior to Murray’s return, Brown had seen a 25.4% target share, a 39.6% air-yard share, and a 30.9% first-read share, producing 1.54 YPRR. Brown ranks 12th in deep targets and 21st among wideouts in red zone targets. Since Week 6, Houston has had the third-highest rate of two high (60.3%). Against two high, Brown has seen his usage decline. In Weeks 1-9, his target share dropped to 20.4%, his air-yard share was 28.3%, his YPRR stood at 1.10, and his first-read share was 23.9%. Add these numbers on top of his usage last week against Atlanta, who has had the second-highest usage of two high since Week 6 (63.2%), and Brown’s Week 11 outlook is worrisome. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Michael Wilson: Last week, with Murray back, Wilson had an 88.9% route run rate, 15.6% target share, an 18.7% air-yard share, 1.06 YPRR, and a 19.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, Houston has had the third-highest rate of two high (60.3%). Against two high prior to Murray’s return, Wilson had a 17.5% target share, a 32.3% air-yard share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. His air-yard share ranks first on the team, and his first-read share is second on the team against two high. Wilson has a red zone target in each of his last two games. Since Week 5, Houston has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Tank Dell: In Dell’s six full games, he has handled a 23.0% target share and a 34.9% air-yard share with a 28.2% first-read share producing 2.24 YPRR. He has finished as a top-24 wide receiver in four of those six games (WR19, WR7, WR1, WR12). Dell has seen six red zone targets over the last two games. He is the WR16 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, the Cardinals have had the fourth-highest rate of two high (57.7%). In Dell’s six full games, he has seen a decline in usage against two high with a 15.8% target share, a 27.7% air-yard share, and a 20.4% first-read share (2.06 YPRR). Week 11 Positional Value: WR2

Noah Brown: Brown has not practiced this week (knee). The Texans have decided to play injury report games this week and list him as questionable. Brown feels closer to out or doubtful. Look in other directions for wide receiver or flex help this week.

Robert Woods: Woods didn’t practice on Wednesday (foot), but he returned to full sessions on Thursday and Friday. Woods has not been listed with an injury designation. He’ll play in Week 11. Woods has had a 17.8% target share, a 21.2% air-yard share, 1.27 YPRR, and a 19.2% first-read share. Woods has nine red zone targets this season and only one touchdown to show for it. He has only one game this season as a WR3 or higher (WR32). Arizona has given up the 13th-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season. Woods will run most of his routes against Garrett Williams (57.1% catch rate and 58.6 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR5

Nico Collins: Collins was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday before practicing in full on Friday. He has not been listed with an injury designation, so Collins is a go for Week 11. Collins is the WR14 in fantasy points per game with three red zone targets over his last two games played. Collins has commanded an 18.9% target share, a 28% air-yard share, and a 26% first-read share. He has produced 2.92 YPRR while ranking second on the team in yards after the catch per reception (8.0) behind only Noah Brown. Since Week 6, the Cardinals have had the fourth-highest rate of two high (57.7%). Against two high, Collins has seen his target share drop to 16.4% with a 28.2% air-yard share and 1.65 YPRR (22.9% first-read share). Week 11 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, among 50 qualifying tight ends, McBride has ranked second in target share (31.5%), third in air-yard share (34.5%), second in YPRR (3.02), and first in first-read share (38.2%). He has been utterly filthy in nearly every efficiency and usage metric I can find. Since Week 6, Houston has had the third-highest rate of two high (60.3%). Since Week 8, against two-high (among 41 qualifying tight ends), McBride has been third in fantasy points per route run. Houston has allowed the highest fantasy points per game and the fifth-highest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: top-three TE

Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE7 in fantasy, ranking sixth in red zone targets. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he is 13th in target share (16.6%), ninth in YPRR (1.80), first in end zone targets (eight), and 15th in first-read share (16.7%). Since Week 6, the Cardinals have had the fourth-highest rate of two high (57.7%). Against two high, he has had a 22.2% target share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fourth in fantasy points per route run against two high. Arizona has allowed the 11th-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -12, O/U 41.5
• Buccaneers vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, against a pass funnel defense, the 49ers still had the tenth-slowest neutral pace, but they did pass at a 60.9% clip (tenth-highest) when the score was close. Shanny could let Purdy cook again this week.
• Tampa Bay will do their part to help out the pace and passing volume. Since Week 5, they have been 11th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is the QB17 in fantasy, but he has rattled off QB1 weeks in five of his last six games. He has been relying on volume and not efficient play. All of his efficiency metrics scream that he is a QB2 who is outperforming his ability as he ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 15th in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 6, the 49ers’ pass defense has been one to target, ranking 11th in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. During this timeframe, their biggest issue has been defending the deep ball, as they have allowed the fifth-highest deep passer rating and the ninth-highest deep passing yards per game. Mayfield’s offensive line will have to buy him time against a defense that is tenth in time to pressure and pressure rate. If the pass rush gets home, Mayfield has surprisingly been good this season against pressure, ranking sixth in pressured passing grade and fifth in pressured passing touchdowns. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Brock Purdy: Purdy is the QB12 in fantasy, ranking first in yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points per dropback. Purdy is tied atop the mountain in fantasy points per dropback with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. Yep, you read that correctly. He’s playing Purdy well. Ok, I apologize for that dad joke (I don’t). Tampa Bay has been ripped to shreds by quarterbacks this season. Since Week 6, they have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White is the RB11 in fantasy. He’s been a volume king, ranking sixth in snap share, tenth in opportunity share, and sixth in red zone touches while averaging 18.6 touches and 83.9 total yards. His tackle-breaking continues to be lackluster. Among 45 qualifying backs since Week 6, he is 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Not only have the 49ers fallen off the mountain as a pass defense recently, but their run defense has been in shambles. Since Week 6, they have allowed the highest explosive run rate (tied) and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the 12th-lowest stuff rate. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey remains the RB1 in fantasy, ranking in the top three in snap share, carries, targets, and red zone touches. He has averaged 21.2 touches and 120.7 total yards per game. He is a consistency beast with only one game where he hasn’t finished as an RB1 (RB15). McCaffrey ranks fourth in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 6, the Buccaneers remain a horrible matchup for backs, allowing the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Tough matchups are nothing for McCaffrey, though. Just take last week, for example. He torched the Jaguars with 22 touches and 142 total yards. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans has continued to defy off-season logic. The fall-off has not happened. He is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in deep targets with three red zone targets across his last five games. Overall, Evans has a 22.2% target share, a 38.7% air-yard share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share. Since Week 7, the 49ers have had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (56.6%). Against single-high, Evans’ YPRR has increased to 2.93, but his first read share has fallen to 24.1%, along with his target share sliding to 21.3%. Evans should have a strong day against the 49ers. Evans will run about 71% of his routes against Ambry Thomas (73.7% catch rate and 91.6 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (57.1% catch rate and 74.5 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR1/2

Chris Godwin: Godwin is the WR37 in fantasy with a 21.9% target share, a 25.9% air-yard share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read share. He is seventh among wide receivers in red zone targets while also drawing seven deep targets this season. Godwin has not posted a monster game all season, but that changes this week. Since Week 7, the 49ers have had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (56.6%). Against single-high, Godwin has seen a huge bump in his numbers with a 24.4% target share, 1.95 YPRR, and a 32.5% first-read share. Godwin will run about 67% of his routes against Ambry Thomas (73.7% catch rate and 91.6 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (57.1% catch rate and 74.5 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR1/2

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR13 in fantasy, ranking 15th in deep targets, but he only has four red zone looks all season (none since Week 2). Overall, Aiyuk has had a 25.5% target share, a 46.3% air-yard share, 3.48 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Aiyuk should be able to roast this secondary deep this week, as Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most deep passing yards, the third-most deep passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest deep passer rating this season. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay has the tenth-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single-high, Aiyuk has seen a bump with a 28.4% target share, a 46.7% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 29.9% first-read share. Aiyuk will dominate this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, a 17.2% air-yard share, 2.26 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. He has five red zone targets in his six full games played. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay has the tenth-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single-high, Samuel has disappeared (in his five full games) with a 14.7% first-read share, a 17.2% air-yard share, 0.78 YPRR, and a 15.9% first-read share. The 49ers’ passing attack will feature Aiyuk and Kittle this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Otton is the TE18 this season. He has had his streamer-worthy weeks with three TE1 weeks this season and six red zone targets. This isn’t one of those weeks. The 49ers have shut down tight ends, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest receiving yard per game. Week 11 Positional Value: TE2

George Kittle: Kittle remains one of the best tight ends in the NFL. He is the TE5 in fantasy, ranking second in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks. He is third in receiving yards and eighth in yards after the catch among tight ends. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay has the tenth-highest single-high rate (57.9%). In Samuel’s full games, against single-high, Kittle has had a 17.9% target share, a 22.8% air-yard share, 3.28 YPRR, and a 20.3% first-read share. All of those usage marks are second on the team, behind only Aiyuk. Smash this week, Kittle. Smash. Tampa Bay has been ripped to shreds by tight ends. Since Week 7, they have allowed the seventh-highest fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to the position. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -7, O/U 40
• Jets vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 6, Buffalo has been sixth in neutral pace but also 18th in neutral passing rate. With Ken Dorsey out the door, I’m curious if the neutral passing rate goes back up.
• Since Week 6, the Jets have been first in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: Even in Wilson’s best fantasy moments, he is still rather irrelevant. He has only two games this season higher than QB20 in weekly scoring (QB14, QB17). He has not surpassed 7.0 yards per attempt since Week 5 and has only one passing touchdown over his last five games. In fantasy, the answer remains: never play Zach Wilson. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Josh Allen: Allen has easily his worst game of the season against this defense in Week 1. He finished as the QB20 in fantasy with 5.8 yards per attempt, 236 passing yards, and a 1:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Since Week 6, Allen has been struggling in most games. He has been 18th in yards per attempt, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in passer rating over his last five games. Maybe the switch from Ken Dorsey pays immediate dividends, but Allen will likely need the rushing equity in his legs to maintain QB1 status this week. Since Week 5, the Jets have remained a nasty pass defense, allowing the lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Breece Hall: Since being unleashed in Week 5, Hall has averaged 19.2 touches and 103 total yards as the RB6 in fantasy. Hall has run into resistance with defenses not respecting the Jets passing game. He hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards since Week 5. He’s been able to compensate with receiving production, as he has at least 47 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Hall’s tackle-breaking remains exquisite, as he’s 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Bills have massively improved as a run defense over the last few weeks. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-fewest missed tackles per attempt while also having the this-best stuff rate. Hall has the talent to overcome this, but it won’t be easy. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Week 10

James Cook: If you ever want a quick jolt of pain, look at Cook’s usage this season. His snap share has skipped around from 40% to 67% weekly. His workload has been as light as eight touches in a game to 21 touches. It’s a weekly dice roll. Last week, Cook fumbled early in the game and was sat on the bench, which makes all the sense in the world unless you consider that was his first fumble of the season. I could go on and on about that, but I won’t. Overall, Cook has averaged 14.4 touches and 83.7 total yards. He is the RB28 in fantasy, ranking 20th in carries, 22nd in targets, and 22nd in red zone touches. Among 47 qualifying backs, he is 12th in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. If Buffalo gives him the volume, he will produce this week. The Jets have had issues defending the run. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Latavius Murray: Last week was Murray’s best game of the season, which isn’t saying much. He played 52% of the snaps with 11 touches and 69 total yards. Murray has averaged 6.4 touches and 29.5 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, he is 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if Murray gets his work eaten into by Leonard Fournett this week. He’s a dicey flex play. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3/4

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR18 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets. Wilson has a high weekly floor, but the ceiling is always in question. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2. He doesn’t have a red zone look over his last three games. Wilson has a 29.5% target share, a 47.4% air-yard share, 1.95 YPRR, and a 42.5% first-read share. Wilson will run about 69% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (69% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (70.4% catch rate and 103.3 passer rating). Since Week 5, the Bills have allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR2

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR7 in fantasy, ranking 16th in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets. In Week 1 against this secondary, he secured ten of his 13 targets for 102 receiving yards and a score (WR4). Diggs has a 28.6% target share, a 39.5% air-yard share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 38.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Jets have the seventh-highest rate of two-high (53.9%). Against two-high, his numbers have taken a small hit with a 25.6% target share, a 36.3% air-yard share, 2.27 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. These are still strong usage metrics, though. Diggs will run about 62% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (69.7% catch rate and 94.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (70.8% catch rate and 87.7 passer rating). The Jets have allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers, so temper your expectations for Diggs this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR40 in fantasy, ranking 12th in deep targets and 21st in red zone targets among wideouts. Davis has five games as a WR3 or higher this season. Since Week 6, the Jets have the seventh-highest rate of two-high (53.9%). Against two-high, Davis has had a 15.1% target share, a 31.7% air-yard share, 2.04 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Davis finished his last meeting with this secondary with only two receptions and 32 scoreless receiving yards. I don’t expect a big game from him this week. Davis will run about 81% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (69.7% catch rate and 94.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (70.8% catch rate and 87.7 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR4

Khalil Shakir: Despite a beautiful matchup last week, Shakir saw his route run rate slip to 66.7%, his target share fall to 11.1%, and his first-read share crater to zero. The Jets have held slot receivers to the lowest PPR points per target and only one receiving touchdown this season. Sit Shakir. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is a fine streaming candidate this week. His usage has been on the rise over the last two games with two red zone targets, a 14.6% target share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. Without Matt Milano, the Bills have allowed the tenth-highest fantasy points per game and the fifth-highest receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

Dalton Kincaid: Just to clarify, Kincaid has always been this dude. Since Week 7, Kincaid has been the TE4 in fantasy points per game. Over that timeframe, among 57 qualifying tight ends, he has been ninth in target share (21.4%), ninth in YPRR (2.16), and ninth in first-read share (22.4%). Since Week 6, the Jets have the seventh-highest rate of two-high (53.9%). Since Week 7, among 36 qualifying tight ends, Kincaid is third in fantasy points per route run against two-high. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• SEA -0.5, O/U 46.5
• Seahawks vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle is eighth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
• With Matthew Stafford under center, the Rams have had the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith’s QB21 standing in fantasy still does no justice for how well he has played this season. Last week’s QB5 finish was spicy, but that’s closer to where his metrics have been all season. Smith is 13th in passing grade, 14th in yards per attempt, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. Smith could stack back-to-back QB1 games against what has become a pass funnel defense for the Rams. Since Week 5, they have allowed the sixth-highest passing yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate. One of the biggest culprits has been their recent issues with defending deep passing. Over their last five games, they have allowed the fifth-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate to downfield shots. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has zero QB1 weeks this season as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. That has been largely due to a lack of passing touchdowns, as he has only one game with multiple passing scores. We can also toss out there that the passing volume has waxed and waned, depending on the game script. Stafford can still chuck it with the best of them, though. He is ninth in yards per attempt and tenth in hero throw rate. Since Week 6, Seattle has been a middling pass defense, ranking 19th in passing yards per game and 15th in passer rating allowed. Over the same timeframe, they have given up the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied). In Week 1, Stafford completed 63.1% of his passes with 8.7 yards per attempt and 334 passing yards (zero passing touchdowns) against this defense. I won’t rule out that he can do that again, but add on some touchdowns this time. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker: Since Week 8, Walker has played 41-49% of the snaps, averaging 13 touches and 71.3 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics paint the clearest picture over this period that he isn’t close to healthy. Among 46 qualifying backs, he has ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Rams have held backs to the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Walker 63.9% zone since Week 8). Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet has played 52-59% of the snaps weekly since Week 8, averaging 7.3 touches and 46.3 total yards. Over his last three games, among 46 qualifying backs, he ranks first in explosive run rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet will lead this backfield in snaps again this week, but considering the tough matchup on the ground, the Seahawks should focus on their aerial attack. Since Week 5, the Rams have held backs to the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Charbonnet 60% zone since Week 8). Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3

Darrell Henderson Jr.: Henderson will lead the backfield in snaps again this week. He has played at least 57% of the snaps in two of his three games, with the team averaging 15.3 touches and 62 total yards. Among 56 qualifying backs, Henderson ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 45th in yards after contact per attempt. When he first returned, he looked like maybe he had some of his former juice, but that juice had expired. If we take out the game in which Seattle just gave up against Baltimore, across their last five games, Seattle has allowed the 12th-lowest missed tackle per attempt rate, the eighth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the ninth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Henderson 60% gap). Week 11 Positional Value: RB3/4

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Since Week 6, in the four games that Seattle has fielded their starting trio of wideouts, Metcalf has led the way with a 24.2% target share, a 46.6% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Since Week 4, the Rams have utilized single-high on 53% of their snaps. Against single-high over those last four games, Metcalf has had a 29.3% target share, a 52.8% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 40.4% first-read share. Those numbers jump off the page. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the tenth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside

Tyler Lockett: Lockett didn’t practice any this week (hamstring). He did side work all week with trainers and has been described as day-to-day by Pete Carroll. The expectation is that he will play this week. Lockett is the WR26 in fantasy this season, ranking 29th in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has commanded a 20.9% target share and 35.2% air-yard share with 1.73 YPRR and a 25.4% first-read share. Since Week 4, the Rams have utilized single-high on 53% of their snaps. Against single-high, Lockett has seen a 19.9% target share, 28.0% air-yard share, and a 25.7% first-read share with 1.69 YPRR. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the tenth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has started to heat up with WR3 or higher outings in three of his last four games. In the last four games that Seattle has been a full strength with all three of their starting wide receivers in the lineup, Smith-Njigba has had a 13.7% target share, a 7.1% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. Since Week 4, the Rams have utilized single-high on 53% of their snaps. Against single-high over those last four games, Smith-Njigba has had a 12.0% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 14.0% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Cooper Kupp: With Stafford in the huddle, Kupp had a 30% target share, a 41.5% air-yard share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. In those three games, Kupp finished as the WR12, WR4, and WR53 with three red zone targets. Since Week 6, Seattle has utilized single-high on 55% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 5-7, Kupp led the team with a 32.1% target share, a 45.8% air-yard share, 3.40 YPRR, and a 39.5% first-read share against single-high. Kupp will run about half of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (47.8% catch rate and 68.4 passer rating). Since Week 5, Seattle has given up the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Kupp is no stranger to overcoming tough matchups, but it’s worth mentioning. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Puka Nacua: In Weeks 5-7 with Stafford and Kupp on the field, Nacua had a 33.3% target share, a 37.7% air-yard share, 2.70 YPRR, and a 35.9% first-read share. Since Week 6, Seattle has utilized single-high on 55% of their defensive snaps. In Weeks 5-7, Nacua had a 28.6% target share, a 40% air-yard share, 2.86 YPRR, and a 32.6% first-read share against single-high. Nacua had two red zone targets in those three games, with Stafford and Kupp both active. Nacua will run about 66% of his routes against Tre Brown (66.7% catch rate and 75.1 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (62.5% catch rate and 92.8 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tutu Atwell: In Weeks 5-7, with Kupp, Stafford, and Nacua all active, Atwell had an 8.9% target share, a 16.4% air-yard share, and 0.91 YPRR. Atwell has been droppable. Week 11 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee saw his target volume dry up, with Kupp and Nacua soaking up all the goodness in this passing attack with Stafford. In the three games, they were all in the lineup together; Higbee had a 10% target share, 0.58 YPRR, and a 9.4% first-read share. Higbee only makes this week’s Primer because the matchup with Seattle is fairly juicy for tight ends. Seattle has allowed the eighth-highest receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest receptions per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE2 streamer

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