The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -13.5, O/U 46.5
• Raiders vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Antonio Pierce has been straightforward. He wants the team to be a run-first team, and they have been. Over the last two weeks, the Raiders have the eighth-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Mike McDaniel can make anything swaggy. I don’t know if he can class up the slow-and-throw club, but it looks like he’s willing to try. Since Week 5, the Dolphins have the tenth-slowest neutral pace while remaining pass-happy with the second-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell is a low-ceiling QB2 with QB23 and QB21 finishes over the last two weeks as he has averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game. Even if we want to argue that he remains an upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo, he hasn’t set the world on fire. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 24th in highly accurate throw rate, 21st in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback, so even as a game manager he has been subpar. Since Jalen Ramsey‘s return the Dolphins pass defense has stepped up allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and CPOE. Since Week 8 they have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 11 Positional Value: Basement-level QB2

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa has been volatile at times, but he has still played quite well overall this season as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Tagovailoa is second in yards per attempt and passer rating while also ranking 11th in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 5, the Raiders’ pass defense has posted some strong numbers, holding passers to the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns (three), and the fifth-fewest fantasy points via passing. These numbers need context, though, as they have played against Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito, and Zach Wilson. Jared Goff completed 70.2% of his passes with 7.3 yards per attempt against them. Tagovailoa can light them up if the Dolphins don’t just lean on their ground game all day. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: With Pierce calling the shots, Jacobs has averaged 27.5 touches and 112.5 total yards with RB3 and RB21 finishes. The offensive line has finally started to play better in terms of run blocking. Over the last two weeks, the Raiders are ninth in yards before contact per attempt. The volume and improved blocking have helped Jacobs’ fantasy days, but his tackle-breaking has still been unimpressive. Over the last two weeks among 47 qualifying backs, Jacobs has ranked 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs will have tough sledding in Week 11 against a strong Miami run defense. Since Week 5, the Dolphins have held backs to the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: Volume-based Low-end RB1

De’Von Achane: Achane should be back this week just in time for a wonderful matchup against the Raiders. In his final two games before missing time due to injury, Achane averaged 11.5 touches and 142.5 total yards (54% of snaps played). I’m projecting Achane to resume his previous workload, which isn’t saying much. Achane likely won’t be an 18-20 carry back this week, but he doesn’t need that type of volume to smash, as we’ve already seen. His 18.4% explosive run rate, 53% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, and 5.61 yards after contact per attempt are insane. Achane should have no issues with running wild against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Raheem Mostert: In Weeks 4-5, Mostert averaged 51% of the snaps played with 11 touches and 61.5 total yards. He was on the wrong side of the red zone workload split with only five red zone opportunities compared to Achane’s nine. This backfield likely stays a committee approach, but I think Achane leads the backfield this week. Mostert and Jeff Wilson should still account for 45-50% of the work here, with Mostert taking the heavy majority. Mostert continues to kick Father Time in the junk as he has shown no signs of slowing down. Among 47 qualifying backs, Mostert is first in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Mostert should see 10-15 opportunities in this game with the ability to take any of his touches to the house. Las Vegas has allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: With O’Connell under center the last two weeks, Adams has seen a 34.6% target share, a 56.9% air-yard share, and a 39.5% first-read share producing 2.40 YPRR. Adams remains one of the best wide receivers in the game, but the evaporating passing rate and suspect quarterback play are tough pills to swallow. Adams ranks 11th in deep targets and first in red zone looks among wide receivers. The high leverage usage should continue, but his median projection for targets weekly takes a hit even though he has averaged ten targets per game since Week 9. Adams will run about 82% of his routes against Xavien Howard (70% catch rate and 94.8 passer rating) and Jalen Ramsey (50% catch rate and 29.9 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR2

Jakobi Meyers: Over the last two weeks with O’Connell, Meyers has had a 13.5% target share, a 14.4% air-yard share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 15.8% first-read share. His fantasy value has been crushed in a run-first offense where Adams sucks all of the target oxygen out of the room. The passing volume in this offense and the quarterback can’t support multiple receiving options. There will be weeks moving forward where Meyers will be a matchup-based flex, but this isn’t one of them. The tandem of Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey has allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target and the third-lowest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Tyreek Hill: Hill remains the WR1 in fantasy points per game. Hill is second in target share (30.0%), sixth in air-yard share (43.8%), first in YPRR (4.20), and sixth in first-read share (36.4%). Hill is third in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Hill is a weekly top-three wide receiver option regardless of matchup. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Jaylen Waddle‘s splits vs. zone coverage (per Fantasy Points Data)

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is the WR24 in fantasy, with seventh red zone targets across his last six games. After Week 4, the Dolphins woke up and realized that Waddle remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL at destroying zone coverage. His Week 1-4 usage was blasphemous, with a 16.4% target share, an 18.0% air-yard share, and an 18.9% first-read share despite producing 2.80 YPRR against zone. Since Week 5, his numbers against zone are closer to what we should expect, with a 22.8% target share, 33.5% air-yard share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 5, among 70 qualifying wide receivers (minimum 75 routes against zone), Waddle has been the WR6 in fantasy points per route run and the WR1 in expected fantasy points per route run. Why do I keep running on and on about Waddle against zone coverage? Well, since Week 5, the Raiders have the third-highest rate of zone (81.3%). Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: Over the last two weeks, Mayer has had a 54.5% route run rate, an 11.5% target share, 1.00 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share. None of these metrics scream “PLAY ME IN FANTASY,” but the matchup for Mayer and the low threshold to be a TE1 in any week puts him on the streaming radar for Week 11. The Dolphins’ outside corners are fearsome, so featuring Mayer this week makes some sense, as well as Miami has been giving up production to the position. Miami has allowed the 11th-highest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: Matchup-based streamer

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -9.5, O/U 37
• Giants vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Over the last two weeks with Tommy DeVito under center, the Giants have had the fifth-lowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 5, Washington has ranked 12th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tommy DeVito: Over the last two weeks, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, DeVito has had the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate. He has ranked 21st in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 6, Washington has remained a basement-level pass defense, giving up the fifth-highest passing yards per game, the 12th-highest yards per attempt, and the most passing touchdowns. DeVito could squeak by with decent QB2 numbers this week, as crazy as it sounds. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2

Sam Howell: Howell has jumped up to the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He’s been a lucrative source of volume all season, ranking first in passing attempts, passing yards, and air yards. He ranks fifth in passing touchdowns, 12th in CPOE, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and ninth in hero throw rate. The Giants’ pass defense has declined since Week 6, allowing the eighth-highest yards per attempt, passing touchdowns (tied), and fantasy points via passing. Howell should flirt with another QB1 game in Week 11. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is the RB9 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in snap share and opportunity share. He is also sixth in carries and red zone touches this season. Barkley ranks 11th in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. In a DeVito-led offense, he has averaged 18 touches and 87 total yards. Washington has been up and down as a run defense. Since Week 5, while they have held backs to the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate, they have also ranked 15th in stuff rate, 13th in yards after contact per attempt, and given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and 1th-highest yards per carry to zone runs. Barkley has been 50/50 zone versus gap this season. Despite the (at best) questionable quarterback play, Barkley should get 18-20 touches this week with a chance to surprise with a strong rushing day. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Week 10

Brian Robinson: Robinson enjoyed a massive Week 10 with 14 touches and 157 total yards. Oddly enough, 119 of those yards came via receiving. While it might suggest that this backfield has titled more in Robinson’s, it hasn’t. He just made the most of his volume. Robinson has averaged 14.1 touches and 74.1 total yards. Robinson has been surprisingly explosive this season, ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in explosive run rate. The Commanders’ offensive line is still doing these backs no favors. Since Week 6, they have had the eighth-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. This isn’t a smash matchup like many think for Robinson this week. Since Week 6, the Giants have the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and have held backs to the ninth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Robinson 65.3% zone). During the same span, the Giants have been 17th in yards after contact per attempt. In their last matchup, Robinson only had 23 rushing yards on eight carries (2.8 yards per carry). Don’t set the bar too high for Robinson this week, or you’ll be disappointed. Antonio Gibson has been listed as doubtful this week (toe). If he misses this game, Robinson could get a workload bump, while I do think Chris Rodriguez will still work in some. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3

Antonio Gibson: Gibson is the RB40 in fantasy, ranking 44th in snap share and 56th in opportunity share. He has only six red zone touches all season (55th). Gibson has averaged six touches and 40.6 total yards. Gibson’s calling card is the passing game. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him. The Giants have allowed the second-fewest receptions per game and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to backs. Gibson has been listed as doubtful (toe). He hasn’t practiced all week. I doubt he will play this week, but even if he is active, sit him this week. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Darius Slayton: Over the last two weeks, Slayton has had an 81% route run rate, a 19.6% target share, 1.25 YPRR, and a 26.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Commanders have the eighth-highest rate of two-high (53.1%). Against two-high, Slayton has seen his air-yard share increase to 33.2%. Since Week 5, the Commanders have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Slayton is a strong flex this week that could surprise. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Wan’Dale Robinson: With DeVito under center, Robinson has had a 53.2% route run rate, a 12.5% target share, 0.98 YPRR, and a 15.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Commanders have the eighth-highest rate of two-high (53.1%). Against two-high this season, Robison has had a 16.7% target share, 1.36 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. One of these Giants receiving weapons will pop off with a good game this week. It’s just a question of who. Since Week 5, Washington has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR30 in fantasy, ranking 11th in deep targets. He has six red zone targets over his last four games. In Week 7 against this secondary, he secured six of his nine targets with 90 receiving yards (WR20). Since Week 6, the Giants have utilized man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (47.2%). Against man coverage, McLaurin leads the team with a 22.8% target share and a 37.7% air-yard share with 1.86 YPRR and a 26.3% first-read share. McLaurin could catch shadow coverage from Deonte Banks (57.6% catch rate and 86.2 passer rating) this week. In their last meeting, Banks followed McLaurin on 45% of his routes. McLaurin ate him alive, securing four of his six targets for 70 yards. Banks has followed wide receivers on 50% of their routes on five occasions this season with varying results. He held Jaylen Waddle, Michael Gallup, and Davante Adams all below 30 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Still, D.K. Metcalf had 34 receiving yards (one touchdown), and Garrett Wilson posted 100 receiving yards. If McLaurin doesn’t get shadowed by Banks (57.6% catch rate and 86.2 passer rating), he’ll run about 83% of his routes against Banks and Nick McCloud (63.6% catch rate and 81.6 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jahan Dotson: Against New York in Week 7, Dotson had eight targets (two red zone targets) with five receptions and 43 scoreless receiving yards (WR43). Since Week 6, the Giants have utilized man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (47.2%). Dotson’s usage against man coverage has increased some in recent weeks. Since Week 6, he has had a 15.4% target share, an 18.9% air-yard share, 1.25 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share against man coverage. Against the man coverage heavy Patriots, he posted eight targets, 69 receiving yards, and a score (WR9). The Giants’ secondary has been giving in recent weeks. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Dotson will run about 56% of his routes against Banks (57.6% catch rate and 86.2 passer rating) and Nick McCloud (63.6% catch rate and 81.6 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR4 with WR3 upside

Curtis Samuel: Samuel is gutting it out through a toe issue currently. He was limited in practice all last week. Last week, he had only a 51.1% route run rate and a 9.1% target share, playing a limited role. The matchup is pretty good for Samuel this week as New York (since Week 5) has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 12th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. I can’t reasonably project that he sees a full-time workload in Week 11. He’s still flex-worthy if you’re in a pinch, though. Week 11 Positional Value: Middling Flex

Tight Ends

Daniel Bellinger: Over the last two weeks, Bellinger has had a 67.1% route run rate, a 10.7% target share, and a 7.9% first-read share. Yes, Bellinger is a thin play, but tight end is ugly. The only reason Bellinger makes the Primer this week is because Washington can’t stop tight ends either. Shocking, I know, since they can’t stop anyone from catching passes. Since Week 6, they have allowed the fifth-highest fantasy points per game and the tenth-highest receiving yards per game to tight ends. If Bellinger scores, he’ll be a TE1 this week. Week 11 Positional Value: Matchup-based streamer

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE13 in fantasy, ranking 11th in targets, 13th in air yards, and 12th in red zone targets. Thomas is just another run-of-the-mill TE2 this week. The Giants have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-lowest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE2

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers

• DAL -10.5, O/U 42
• Cowboys vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 6 the Cowboys have leaned into their passing game with the eighth-best neutral pace and the ninth-best neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 6, the Panthers have been 15th in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: In Prescott’s last four games, he has finished as the QB1, QB3, QB2, and QB1 in fantasy. Prescott has been on a legendary tear. Ok, are you ready for the categories that he has led the league in since Week 6? Ok, here goes nothing. Since Week 6, Prescott has led all passers in yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, passer rating, CPOE, and highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 6, the Panthers have been a middle-of-the-road pass defense, ranking 14th in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and 12th in adjusted completion rate allowed. Prescott should keep cooking in Week 11. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Bryce Young: Young is the QB25 in fantasy who has mightily struggled this season. He has only one game this season with above 6.5 yards per attempt, multiple passing touchdowns, or at least 240 passing yards. Outside of an outlier game against Detroit, he has not finished higher than QB17 in weekly scoring this season. Since Week 6, the Cowboys have held passers to the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate while pressuring them at the sixth-highest rate. Young doesn’t stand a chance against this defense this week. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: Pollard remains the lead back of this offense, but Dallas has been featuring the pass and not Pollard. Since Week 8, he has played at least 65% of the snaps weekly while averaging 14.3 touches and 57.7 total yards. Even if we look more recently., since Week 5, Pollard still has been disappointing in tackle-breaking, ranking 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt (among 49 qualifying backs). The role that we wanted for so long for Pollard has been present all season, but it came after the Energizer Bunny ran out of juice. Since Week 5, the Panthers remain a team that you can run on, giving up the tenth-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Pollard 58.1% gap). Pollard is the RB22 in fantasy, and that’s exactly what he is this week. A low-end RB2. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Rico Dowdle: Dowdle played only 28% of the snaps last week, but he finished with 12 rushing attempts and 79 rushing yards (one score). We could see Dowdle work more into this backfield, as Dallas has seen plenty of Pollard leaving yards on the field this season. Dowdle has shown more juice with limited work than Pollard has this season. Among 56 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 24th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. His season-high for carries was seven until last week. We could see him possibly push for 10-14 carries this week, and it wouldn’t shock me. Since Week 5, the Panthers remain a team that you can run on, giving up the tenth-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 8th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Dowdle 53.2% zone). Week 11 Positional Value: RB3

Chuba Hubbard: Last week, Hubbard’s workload fell. He played 50% of the snaps with 11 touches and 39 total yards. That was his lowest snap count since Week 5. Partially, this can be traced to Miles Sanders‘ health, but also the fact that Hubbard hasn’t been amazing this season. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in explosive run rates and missed tackles forced per attempt. He is the RB36 in fantasy, ranking 49th in yards per touch and 61st in fantasy points per opportunity. This week against Dallas’s run defense, all I can say is good luck. Since Week 5, they have contained backs with the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3/4

Miles Sanders: Last week, Sanders played 38% of the snaps with four touches and ten total yards. His efficiency has been in the toilet all season, but now he is just a backup running back on a bad team. Don’t waste a roster spot on Sanders at this point. Week 11 Positional Value: Droppable

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is now the WR4 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets. He has been on an “A.J. Brown” type of run, with at least 117 receiving yards in each of his last four games and at least 151 receiving yards in each of his last three contests. During this wonderful run of amazingness by Prescott, Lamb has been the pass-game engine with a 32.9% target share, a 41.3% air-yard share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 34.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Panthers have had the third-highest rate of single-high (66.9%). Since Week 6 against single-high, Lamb’s numbers have been ridiculous, with a 33.7% target share, a 43.7% air-yard share, 4.58 YPRR, and a 38.1% first-read share. Lamb will run about 63% of his routes against Troy Hill (63% catch rate and 60.0 passer rating). Lamb should rock out again this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Since Week 6, Cooks is the only wide receiver outside of Lamb with above a 60% route run rate. Over the last four games, Cooks has had a 13.2% target share, a 17.2% air-yard share, 2.05 YPRR, and a 15.7% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Panthers have had the third-highest rate of single-high (66.9%). Against single-high over the last four weeks, Cooks has had a 15.7% target share, a 20.3% air-yard share, 2.85 YPRR, and a 19% first-read share. Cooks should cook again in Week 11. Since Week 5, the Panthers have allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers. Cooks will run about 64% of his routes against Donte Jackson (65.7% catch rate and 116.1 passer rating) and Dicaprio Bootle (Career: 68.4% catch rate and 81.9 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Adam Thielen: The wild ride of the Thielen show over the first few weeks has come to a screeching halt. Since Week 8, Thielen has finished as the WR24, WR42, and WR35 in weekly fantasy scoring, eclipsing 50 receiving yards only once. Since Week 8, Thielen has had a 25% target share, a 19.8% air-yard share, 1.14 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. The usage numbers have still been present, but the production hasn’t. This could be a good bounce-back spot for him, though. Since Week 5, Dallas has allowed the highest PPR points per target and highest passer rating to opposing slot receivers. Thielen will run about 68% of his routes against Jourdan Lewis (65.2% catch rate and 134.1 passer rating). With how badly Bryce Young has struggled and with consideration of the outside corner matchups, Thielen is the only wide receiver worth discussing as a start this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE9 in fantasy, ranking first in red zone targets. He has six red zone looks in his last three games. Since Week 6, he has had a 14.5% target share, 1.27 YPRR, and a 14.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Panthers have had the third-highest rate of single-high (66.9%). Over the last four games against single-high, his target share has dipped to 9.6% while his YPRR decreased to 1.04, and his first-read share has been 9.5%. Carolina hasn’t been a favorable matchup for tight ends, as they have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-lowest receiving yards per game to the position. Week 11 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAX -7, O/U 40
• Titans vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Levis under center, the Titans have had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral rushing rate.
• The Jaguars have turtled this season. They have retreated inside their offensive shell, playing slow and operating a run-heavy attack. Since Week 6, they have had the ninth-slowest neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: After his outlier game against Atlanta, Levis has looked closer to the quarterback I saw during prospect season. Over the last two weeks, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has had the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, sixth-lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest highly accurate throw rate. I don’t see Levis bouncing back this week against a Jaguars secondary that has played better recently outside of the 49ers whooping them. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, passer rating, and CPOE. They have also had the 13th-best time to pressure. Levis will struggle again this week. Week 11 Positional Value: low-end QB2

Trevor Lawrence: Since Week 6, Lawrence’s struggles have been profound as he has ranked 18th in passer rating, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Lawrence is the QB22 in fantasy. He still has only three QB1 weeks this season, and two of those came against Indy. The Titans remain a favorable matchup for quarterbacks, so a bounceback game could be in the cards for Lawrence this week. Since Week 6, they have allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE. Week 11 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: Henry ran into a buzzsaw Tampa Bay run defense last week that limited him to 24 rushing yards on 11 carries. Henry remains a game script-sensitive back whose snaps will dip if the Titans get down early. He has four games this season with less than 50% of the snaps played. Henry has averaged 18.5 touches and 87.3 total yards as the RB16 in fantasy. While he is fourth in carries this season because of the putrid state of the Tennessee offense, he is also 28th in red zone touches. Henry remains one of the best rushers of the football in the NFL, ranking fifth in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yard after contact per attempt. Unfortunately for Henry, this week will look similar to Week 10. Jacksonville has been a top-shelf run defense all year. Since Week 5, they have had the eighth-best stuff rate, the seventh-lowest yard after contact per attempt allowed, and the fifth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Henry 56.8% zone). Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Tyjae Spears: Spears is a viable flex play weekly. He has averaged 7.8 touches and 44.4 total yards. Spears has finished as an RB3 or higher in 67% of his games this season and is the RB39 in fantasy points per game. He remains in the conversation for the most explosive back in the NFL, ranking first in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Spears’ biggest contribution at the moment comes via the receiving department. He has three games with at least 35 receiving yards and four outings with at least four receptions. Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions to running backs and the third-most receiving yards. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3

Travis Etienne: Last week was the first time that Etienne’s snap share has fallen below 72% all season. He finished with only 11 touches and 44 total yards. I expect his snaps to bounce back this week. He is the RB4 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share and opportunity share. Etienne is second in carries and sixth in targets. Among 47 qualifying backs, Etienne is 20th in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. The Titans have shown some cracks in the run defense armor recently. Since Week 5, they have been 17th in explosive run rate, 14th in yards after contact per attempt, and they have allowed the highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.3). Only 44.4% of Etienne’s runs have been on zone concepts, but he has been more effective with zone plays (4.24 ypc vs. 3.20 ypc). Etienne could enjoy a nice bounceback this week if he can get loose on a few zone carries. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: With Levis tossing him the ball, Hopkins has had a 22.4% target share, a 40.5% air-yard share, 2.39 YPRR, and a 26.7% first-read share. Hopkins is the WR31 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets. This has been an average matchup for wide receivers since Week 6, with Jacksonville ranking 15th in PPR points per target and 11th in receiving yards allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Treylon Burks: Burks has been ruled out (concussion). 

Christian Kirk: Overall, Krik has had a 21.8% target share, a 29.3% air-yard share, 2.18 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share as the WR21 in fantasy. This week is shaping up like another Kirk week. Since Week 6, the Titans have utilized two-high at the tenth-highest rate (52.1%). Against two-high, Kirk has exploded with a 27.1% target share, a 32.9% air-yard share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 35.1% first read share. Kirk should destroy the Titans in Week 11. Kirk will run about 71% of his routes against Eric Garror (58.3% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR2

Calvin Ridley: Ridley has been boom or bust all year. He has three games as a WR3 or higher, but also Ridley has five games in which he has failed to surpass eight fantasy points. Ridley is 15th in deep targets, but he only has five red zone targets this season. Since Week 6, the Titans have utilized two-high at the tenth-highest rate (52.1%). Against two-high, Ridley’s target share has fallen to 12.4% with a 27.9% air-yard share with 1.31 YPRR and a 16.0% first read share. Ridley has already faced the top-three teams in two-high rates since Week 6 (KC, HOU, ATL), and against them he averaged 36.6 receiving yards with only one touchdown. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4

Zay Jones: Jones has practiced on a limited basis all week (knee). He has been listed as questionable. He could be back in the starting lineup this week. In the one full game Jones has played this season, he posted a 21.9% target share, a 35.5% air-yard share (1.96 YPRR), and a 28% first-read share. Those are fantastic numbers for a wide receiver that you are looking to plug in as a flex option this week. Jones has seen at least two red zone targets in every game he has played this season, so I’d say his touchdown chances are high this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Last week Okonkwo still drew a 15.4% target share, but his route run rate dropped to 51.2% which isn’t great. A TE2/matchup-based streaming option just got even riskier. Okonkwo hasn’t finished as a TE1 or surpassed 40 receiving yards in any game this season. He still has only two red zone targets both of which came in Week 5. Jacksonville is another good matchup for Oknokwo to likely disappoint in. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-highest fantasy points per game and the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE2

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE8 in fantasy, ranking third in targets, fourth in target share, and 12th in air-yard share. He has been a hollow volume monster, ranking top-six in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch, but he has only two red zone targets and zero touchdowns this season. Engram will have to wait another week for his first score of the season. Tennessee has allowed the seventh-lowest receiving yards per game to tight ends, and they remain the only defense in the NFL yet to allow a score to a tight end. Week 11 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC