The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The NFL is a jungle. A rollercoaster of emotions. It is a weekly experience that can leave you questioning your sanity, but dear lord, we love it. C.J. Stroud is doing things few rookie passers have done before him. Dak Prescott is playing at MVP level. The Lions look like they could make a deep playoff run, while the Bills are possibly on the outside looking in as they stare down a frightening rest of the season schedule.

Toss in the weekly injury chaos grenade, and you’ll feel like your head is about to explode when setting fantasy football lineups. But hey, it’s ok. The Week 11 Primer is here to help. Sit down. Pour yourself a pumpkin-spiced beverage (ok, maybe don’t do that), and let’s figure out this week in fantasy football together.

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

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Fantasy Football Primer

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

• CLE -1, O/U 33
• Steelers vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 5, the Steelers have been obsessed with the run as they have been second in neutral rushing rate and 17th in neutral pace.
• Over their last five games, the Browns have picked up the pace as they have been second in neutral pace, but they remain committed to the run (fifth in neutral rushing rate).

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has displayed zero upside this season. With the pass rates neutered, his fantasy stock has tanked, and is currently on life support. He has zero games with at least 250 passing yards and only two passing touchdowns since Week 5. Pickett is QB33 in fantasy points per game. Pickett is droppable in one quarterback formats and a weekly bench candidate in Superflex. Week 11 Positional Value: Droppable

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: In his only start this season, Thompson-Robinson completed only 52.8% of his passes with 3.4 yards per attempt and three interceptions. He finished with 4.2 fantasy points as the QB30 for the week. Thompson-Robinson isn’t on the fantasy radar, even in Superflex formats. Cleveland should look to feature the ground game this week, as the Steelers have been a nasty pass defense since Joey Porter Jr. became a starter. Since Week 7, they have contained quarterbacks with the seventh-lowest passer rating, the 12th-lowest CPOE, fourth-most interceptions forced, and the tenth-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Week 10

Najee Harris: Harris and Jaylen Warren split the work down the middle last week, with Warren gaining a slight edge in routes and red zone opportunities. His volume was still fantastic last week, with 19 touches and 96 total yards. With Pittsburgh leaning into their rushing attack as much as they have, both Harris and Warren could get 15-20 touches weekly moving forward. It’s impossible to ignore how good Harris has been this season on a per-touch basis, ranking sixth in explosive run rate and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should remain a key cog in the Steeler’s weekly plans despite the world condensing on an announcement that Warren is the team’s starter. Since Week 6, the Browns have given up the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most fantasy points via rushing, and the highest missed tackles per attempt. Since Week 7, Harris has been the RB13 in fantasy points per game. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Jaylen Warren: Warren has been amazing this season. He has been an RB2 or higher in 67% of his games. For all of those keeping up with that in-depth math, yes, it has been in 6 of 9 games (nice :). Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 15.5 touches and 111.5 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Warren is third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Warren and Harris should feast again this week against the Browns. Since Week 6, the Browns have given up the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most fantasy points via rushing, and the highest missed tackles per attempt. The reason that the Browns’ run defense isn’t talked about as a weak link is that they have faced the fifth-fewest carries this season. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Jerome Ford: Ford’s return to close to full health is reflected in his volume and playing time over the last two weeks, as he has played 64% of the snaps both weeks while averaging 21.5 touches and 93 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Ford ranks 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. The biggest issue for Ford has been his red zone usage, as Kareem Hunt has out-touched him in this realm of the field five to three over the last two weeks. The Steelers have improved some as a run defense, but this is still a matchup that Ford should smash. Since Week 6, the Steelers have been 20th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. The secret sauce is their issues with defending gap runs. Over their last five games, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.62). 53.2% of Ford’s runs have been on gap plays. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Kareem Hunt: Hunt is an uninspiring flex play. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 33% of the snaps with 12 touches and 35 total yards. Hunt’s most redeeming quality is his red zone usage, where he has out-touched Ford five to three over the last two weeks. Hunt has lost his former juice, though. Among 47 qualifying backs, he is 43rd in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt. A good rushing matchup should help Hunt this week. Since Week 6, the Steelers have been 20th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Hunt should also enjoy the efficiency boost on his gap runs this week (58.6% gap). Over their last five games, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3/4

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Since his return in Week 7, Johnson has been the WR28 in fantasy, but the bottom fell out last week. Against the Packers, his target share fell to 17.3%, which isn’t a coffin nail, but when your team switches over to a run-heavy approach, and Pickett throws the ball only 23 times, it’s a huge problem. Over the last four weeks, he has had a 27.3% target share, a 46.6% air-yard share, 2.26 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Johnson’s fantasy value could tank with this drastic shift in the offensive philosophy. Pickett has not been a touchdown machine, which affects Johnson. Prior to last week, he could be looked at as a volume WR2, but now he may be just a volume-based WR3 with shaky touchdown equity weekly. Johnson could walk away from Week 11 with a solid stat line against a secondary that has faltered since Week 5, allowing the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4

George Pickens: Since Johnson’s return, Pickens has seen his fantasy production dry up with an 18.2% target share, a 37.2% air-yard share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. Pickens hasn’t eclipsed ten fantasy points in a game since Week 7. The silver lining for Pickens is that since Week 5, the Browns have utilized single-high looks at the highest rate in the NFL (75.2%) while also giving up the eighth-highest fantasy points per dropback in them. Against single-high since Week 7, Pickens has been the team’s leading weapon with a 25.5% target share, a 48.9% air-yard share, 2.74 YPRR, and a 31.7% first-read share. Pickens could lead the Steelers in receiving production this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Amari Cooper: Cooper has had a 22.9% target share, a 43.2% air-yard share, 2.42 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. Since Week 5, the Steelers have the second-highest rate of single-high (69.7%). Against single-high, Cooper’s numbers have jumped across the board with a 24.4% target share, a 43.6% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 31.5% first-read share. The big concern for Cooper is Joey Porter Jr.. Porter Jr. didn’t shadow last week, but he has followed receivers on at least 50% of their routes twice this season, holding Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins to 46 and 26 receiving yards (zero touchdowns). If Porter Jr. doesn’t shadow, Cooper will run about 74% of his routes against Porter Jr. (32% catch rate and 48.1 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (60.5% catch rate and 107.1 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Elijah Moore: Moore has had an 18% target share, an 18.8% air-yard share, 1.06 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share as the WR62 in fantasy. Last week, Moore flashed some hope for his rest of the season prospects with 44 receiving yards and a score. That was only the second game this season in which he has surpassed ten fantasy points. Moore will run about 51% of his routes against Keanu Neal (63.9% catch rate and 72.1 passer rating). Since Week 5, the Steelers have been abysmal at defending the slot, allowing the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Since Week 7, the Browns decided that not featuring one of their best players in Njoku was a bad idea. Over the last four weeks, among 34 qualifying tight ends, he has ranked seventh in target share (21.6%), tenth in YPRR (1.87), tenth in receiving yards per game (53.8), and seventh in first-read share (25%). Over that span, he has been the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in end zone targets. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-highest yards per reception to tight ends, but they have also held them to the sixth-lowest fantasy points per game, partially due to the fact that they have allowed only one receiving touchdown to the position. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -7.5, O/U 48
• Bears vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Chicago has the third-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 6, the Lions have been a fringe slow-and-throw team with the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the 13th-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: The last time we saw Fields, he was fresh off QB3 and QB1 finishes in fantasy before an injury booted him from his Week 6 game against Minnesota. The rushing upside is always present with Fields, especially with the Bears recommitting to using his legs. Fields is second in rushing yards per game and sixth in red zone carries per game. Fields remains an underrated passer. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Since Week 5, the Lions have been a team that you can pass against with a high degree of success. They have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 12th-most fantasy points via passing. Fields’ biggest concern is against the Lions’ pass rush. Detroit is tenth in pressure rate. Against pressure, Fields has been middle of the road, ranking 20th in adjusted completion rate and 17th in passing grade. Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%) and have allowed the second-highest fantasy points per dropback in single-high. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks against single-high, Fields is tenth in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback against single-high while also ranking sixth in CPOE. This game could turn into a shootout easily. If that happens, Fields could be a top-three quarterback this week. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 weeks on his resume. He is seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and fourth in CPOE. Goff doesn’t get enough credit for how accurate he has been this season, ranking ninth in highly accurate throw rate and 12th in hero throw rate. The Bears’ pass defense has improved since the outset of the season, but they still aren’t a pass defense to be frightened by. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing. Over the last two weeks after the addition of Montez Sweat, the Bears still have ranked 17th in pressure rate and 20th in time to pressure. Goff should have plenty of time to pick apart this secondary in Week 11. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Khalil Herbert: Herbert will be back this week. The Bears played around with split backfields in the first few weeks of the season before turning the backfield over to Herbert in Week 4. Against the Broncos, he played 78% of the snaps with 22 touches and 122 total yards. The next week, he got hurt. Herbert should resume his status as lead back this week, especially with D’Onta Foreman on the injury report. Herbert’s per-touch efficiency has been amazing this season, as he is fourth in explosive run rate and second in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 5, the Lions have remained strong against the run, but there have been some interesting dings in the armor. Over their last five games, this run defense has allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, but they have been 15th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs while also allowing the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Herbert 56.9% zone). His workload this week is a question, and the downside is real for Herbert, but there’s also an avenue for him to surprise in his first game back. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3

D’Onta Foreman: We haven’t seen Foreman and Khalil Herbert active in a game together since Week 1, so we’re speculating on the possible workload this week in this backfield. Foreman has been limited all week with an ankle issue, so Herbert may walk back in and resume his previous lead-back status this week. Foreman has been solid in Herbert’s absence, averaging 17.6 touches and 79.6 total yards across his last five games. Let’s get something straight, though. These players aren’t in the same stratosphere in terms of tackle-breaking this season. Among 47 qualifying backs, Foreman ranks 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Foreman’s range of outcomes this week is wide. If making a bet on who leads this backfield in touches this week, my money is with Herbert, but I do admit, as I said at the beginning of this blurb, that we’re all speculating. Would it shock me to Foreman lead the way and Herbert to get eased back in? Nope. Week 11 Positional Value: RB3 with low-end RB2 upside

Week 10

David Montgomery: Last week, Montgomery had a successful return to the lineups with 12 rushes (zero targets) and 116 rushing yards. His day would have been a letdown for many if he hadn’t broken a 75-yard run for a score. Outside of that monster run, he had 11 rushing attempts with 41 rushing yards and a 38% snap share. I’m not a big proponent of the “well if you take away this big play, then” type of analysis, but with his limited volume and low snap count, the downside and floor are very real. Montgomery was still active in the red zone, finishing with a 40% red zone share of the backfield work last week (60% Gibbs). With Gibbs outpacing Montgomery in every facet, we have to come to grips with the fact that Montgomery’s early season domination of the workload is likely gone. Montgomery still has been one of the best pure rushers in the NFL this season. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. His value is closely tied to what he produces on the ground moving forward, and this week could be tough. Since Week 5, the Bears have not allowed an explosive run. They also have the best stuff rate, the third-best mark in yards after contact per attempt, and have given up the fewest fantasy points via rushing. Montgomery is a good bet for 12-15 touches this week, but if he doesn’t score, you’ll likely be disappointed. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Jahmyr Gibbs: Last week, Gibbs led the backfield with 58% of the snaps, 17 touches, and 112 total yards. Gibbs out-snapped, ran more routes, and saw more red-zone opportunities than Montgomery. With this being a tough rushing matchup this week, Gibbs should see a similar snapshare this week. The Lions could opt to “run through the passing game” with check downs instead of traditional carries. Gibbs is second in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Bears have the best stuff rate, the third-best mark in yards after contact per attempt, and have given up the fewest fantasy points via rushing. Gibbs should destroy this defense through the air. Chicago has allowed the fourth-most receptions per game and the second-highest yards per reception to backs. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: In Weeks 1-5 with Fields under center, Moore had a 22.4% target share, a 44.3% air-yard share, 3.18 YPRR, and a 37.1% first-read share. He also led the team with four end-zone targets. Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%). In the first five games of the season, Moore dominated single-high with 3.16 YPRR and a team-leading 35.3% first-read share. Moore is eighth among wide receivers in deep targets. He will run about 82% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (61.5% catch rate and 106.0 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (60.4% catch rate and 80.2 passer rating). Since Week 5, Detroit has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside

Darnell Mooney: With Fields under center, Mooney had a 9.9% target share, a 17.3% air-yard share, 0.82 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share. In Weeks 1-5, he had only two red zone targets with one weekly finish as a WR3 or better (WR20). Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%). With Fields against single-high, Mooney saw his target share increase to 11.8%, his air-yard share rose to 25.4% (16.7 aDOT), and his first-read share stood at 15.7%. Since Week 5, the Lions have been a turnstile against slot receivers, allowing the third-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns. Mooney will run about 67% of his routes against Brian Branch (76.7% catch rate and 114.4 passer rating). Among 29 qualifying slot corners, Branch has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the sixth-highest passer rating. Mooney is a solid flex this week with upside. Week 11 Positional Value: Sexy upside flex

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR6 in fantasy points per game with three red zone targets over his last four games. St. Brown is eighth in target share (28.2%), 25th in air-yard share (34.4%), sixth in YPRR (3.01), and 11th in first-read share (35.0%). St. Brown has surpassed the century mark in receiving mark in six of eight games played. That is insane consistency in what is a volatile position in fantasy. Since Week 5, the Bears have deployed single-high looks on 54.5% of their defensive snaps. St. Brown’s YPRR against single-high has increased to 3.30. St. Brown ranks seventh in fantasy points per route run against single-high. St. Brown will run about 52% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (75% catch rate and 101.3 passer rating). Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds has had a 67.8% route run rate, 10.4% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and an 11.7% first-read share. After starting hot this season, Reynolds has gone cold. He hasn’t surpassed eight fantasy points in any game since Week 5. He hasn’t had more than 60 receiving yards in his last four games while drawing only one red zone target. Since Week 5, the Bears have held outside wide receivers in check with the 11th-lowest PPR points per target. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Jameson Williams: Williams remains a part-timer in this offense. Last week he had only a 45.5% route run rate, 7.0 aDOT, 6.1% target share, and a 3.8% first-read share. Hold him if you have the bench space, but it’s not a must at this point. Williams could be a bust. Sad times. I won’t even discuss his food taeks. Week 11 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE6 in fantasy, ranking fifth in red zone targets. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he is ninth in target share (18.0%), tenth in YPRR (1.70), fifth in end zone targets (five), and 12th in first-read share (18.9%). Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%). With Fields under center, against single-high, Kmet has had an 18.8% target share and a 21.6% first-read share. The Lions have been a friendly matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the tenth-highest fantasy points per game and the 12th-highest yards per reception. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

Sam LaPorta: Ballgame remains the TE4 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets this season. He has been a TE1 in 67% of his games this season. He is sixth in target share (19.6%) and air-yard share (21.5%), seventh in YPRR (1.98), and eighth in first-read share (20.1%). All Ballgame all the time, baby. He faces a Bears’ pass defense that has allowed the third-highest fantasy points per game, the sixth-most receiving touchdowns per game, and the highest catch rate to tight ends. Since Week 5, the Bears have deployed single-high looks on 54.5% of their defensive snaps. Ballgame has dominated single-high looks with a 21.3% target share, 2.65 YPRR (WOW!), and the highest fantasy points per route run (among 33 qualifying tight ends). Ballgame could have a smash game incoming in Week 11. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers

• LAC -3, O/U 44
• Chargers vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Chargers are sixth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate. 
• Since Week 6, the Packers have been 22nd in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Herbert has been the QB8 in fantasy points per game since Week 4, but that fantasy output has masked a quarterback that has struggled. Since Week 4, Herbert has been 19th in yards per attempt, 15th in big-time throw rate, and 27th in adjusted completion rate. He also has had the tenth-highest turnover-worthy play rate during that span. Since Week 5, the Packers have been a volatile pass defense, ranking 19th in passer rating and 14th in adjusted completion rate allowed. They have also shown some flashes of strength, holding passers to the sixth-lowest CPOE and the ninth-lowest yards per attempt. Herbert could post another QB1 week here, but the range of outcomes is wider than it might seem. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Jordan Love: Love is the QB15 in fantasy with four QB1 outings on his 2023 resume. Love has been incredibly erratic this season, ranking 23rd in yards per attempt, 31st in CPOE, and 21st in highly accurate throw rate. Luckily for Love, the Bolts have created much resistance in the way of quarterbacks all season. They have been a dream “get right” matchup for passers. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest adjusted completion rate. During this timeframe, they have also been 23rd in pressure rate, so Love should enjoy clean pockets, which he needs. His struggles against pressure have been profound. Week 11 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Since Ekeler’s return, he has averaged 18.8 touches and 83.2 total yards while playing at least 63% of the snaps weekly. Ekeler’s elusiveness was compromised when he first returned from injury, but we’ve started to see his usual explosiveness over the last two games. Since Week 9 among 35 qualifying backs, Ekeler has been seventh in explosive run rate and 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 5, the Packers have remained a team that you can run the ball against. Over their last five games, Green Bay has had the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Ekeler should shred this run defense. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Aaron Jones: Jones remains limited in practice as he plays through a hamstring issue. Over the last three weeks, Jones has played 51-57% of the snaps, averaging 17.3 touches and 66.4 total yards. Jones still isn’t healthy, and it’s showing up in his metrics. Since Week 8, Jones has had zero explosive runs. Among 46 qualifying backs, he has ranked 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. Outside of the Lions imposing their will against the Bolts, this remains a strong run defense. Since Week 5, they have contained backs with the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

A.J. Dillon: Since Week 8, Dillon has averaged 11 touches and 42.6 total yards. Dillon is the RB41 in fantasy, ranking 22nd in red zone touches and 32nd in weighted opportunities. He has been a low-end flex/RB3 all season that won’t blow your socks off. In a tough matchup, he’s better off sitting on the bench this week. Since Week 5, the Chargers have contained backs with the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has been listed as questionable this week (shoulder). He missed practice on Wednesday before returning for a limited session on Thursday and a full practice on Friday. It sounds like Allen is not 100%, but he will give it a go this week with what has been described as an AC joint sprain. Allen is the WR2 in fantasy with a 29.7% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. Allen will run about 62% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (80% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating). Green Bay has allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Quentin Johnston: Since Week 8, Johnston has had an 11.8% target share, a 21.7% air-yard share, 1.08 YPRR, and a 13.0% first-read share. His role has changed as the team doesn’t have him running clearouts anymore, with his aDOT dropping to 10.2. My faith in the Chargers to get Johnston involved and his ability to get open has been shaken. Johnston falls into the “break glass only in case of emergency” flex conversation. Week 11 Positional Value: WR5

Christian Watson: Watson was limited (shoulder) in practice on Wednesday. Since Week 5, Watson has led the Packers with a 17.2% target share, a 36.7% air-yard share, and a 21.4% first-read share. He has produced a saddening 1.56 YPRR and eight end zone targets with zero touchdowns. Watson ranks 23rd among 85 qualifying receivers in open score, so this hasn’t been a Watson problem but a Love issue. Watson has been banged up along the way as well. If Love can pull it together this week, Watson could have a fantastic day. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to boundary receivers this season. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3

Jayden Reed: Since Week 5, Reed has only had a 56% route run rate with an 11.8% target share, a 16.1% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. His usage and snap share have been all over the map all season. He has three games with six or more targets while also logging two weeks with less than 50% of the snaps played. The matchup this week is worth taking the swing if you need some upside from your WR3 or flex spot. Reed ranks 12th in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 5, the Chargers have allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards to slot receivers (Reed 80% slot). Week 11 Positional Value: High upside flex

Romeo Doubs: With Watson playing a full-time role, Doubs has seen a 15.4% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share producing 0.87 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Doubs has been a Love red zone favorite this season, ranking ninth in red zone targets with six over his last five games (three touchdowns). Doubs could continue to run hot with touchdowns again this week. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to boundary receivers this season. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave is the TE22 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks this season. He has had a 13.4% target share and an 11.1% air-yard share. He is third in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends (three red zone targets over his last two games). Musgrave has had at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last two games. Musgrave could have a banner day against a secondary that has allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

CIN vs. BAL | PIT vs. CLE | CHI vs. DET | LAC vs. GB | LV vs. MIA | NYG vs. WAS | DAL vs. CAR | TEN vs. JAC | ARI vs. HOU | TB vs. SF | NYJ vs. BUF | SEA vs. LAR | MIN vs. DEN | PHI vs. KC