The Primer: Week 10 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LV -1.0, O/U 36.5
• Jets vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New York is third in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.
• Las Vegas had the second-slowest neutral pace last week with the highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: Another week. Another disappointing Zach Wilson performance. He still has only one game on his 2023 resume with more than 12 fantasy points. He is not startable in any format. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in passing grade, 31st in yards per attempt, and 29th in adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: Not fantasy viable

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell was a fine game manager last week, completing 64% of his passes with 8.4 yards per attempt. He was 15th in passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate. O’Connell performed well with what he was asked to do, but that doesn’t make him fantasy viable this week. Against an even tougher pass defense this week, he might not even attempt 25 passes this week. New York has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the third-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-lowest CPOE. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Breece Hall: Since being unleashed, Hall has finished as the RB3, RB4, RB7, and RB23 in weekly scoring. Over his last four games, Hall has averaged 20 touches and 110.1 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, Hall ranks eighth in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Hall faces a Raiders’ run defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Since Week 4, Las Vegas has given up the 13th-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Hall should decimate them. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB13 in fantasy, ranking fifth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and first in weighted opportunities. His 98 rushing yards last week are his highest rushing output this season. He has averaged 20.8 touches and 83.1 total yards. I wish I could tell you that over the last two weeks, with encouraging performances, his tackle-breaking metrics have rebounded, but they haven’t. Since Week 8 among 39 qualifying backs, he ranks 25th in explosive run rate, 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. The plus for Jacobs is that since Week 4, the Jets have been a softer run defense. Over their last five games, they have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Incredible as it sounds, Garrett Wilson has been Zach Wilson-proof. His WR22 standing in fantasy defies all logic if you’ve watched a minute of the Jets’ offense this season. Honestly, it’s just a testament to Garrett Wilson’s talent. He is sixth in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets this season. Also, the fact remains that volume can cure a lot of problems in fantasy. Wilson has had a 28.7% target share, a 48.1% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 42.9% first-read share. Wilson will run about 71% of his routes against Marcus Peters (68.3% catch rate and 101.6 passer rating) and Amik Robertson (60.7% catch rate and 66.5 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Davante Adams: In O’Connell’s two starts, Adams has had a 31.3% target share, a 47.1% air-yard share, 1.85 YPRR, and a 41.3% first-read share. That all sounds amazing, but looking at how the Raiders offense ran last week, the biggest concern for Adams is volume. Adams had a 28% target share last week, which amounted to only seven targets. That’s not a coffin nail, but this will be a run-first offense moving forward, especially this week, considering the matchup. Adams has dropped to WR20 in fantasy while still ranking 11th in deep targets and first in red zone targets among wide receivers. He will run about 83% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (72.4% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (71.4% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating). The Jets have held perimeter wide receivers to the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Jakobi Meyers: In O’Connell’s two games as the starter, Meyers has had a 14.1% target share, a 19.0% air-yard share, 1.25 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share. Meyers failed to eclipse 40 receiving yards in either game, and I don’t think he surpasses that mark this week. Meyers will run about 75% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (72.4% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (71.4% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: Since his Week 6 breakout, Mayer has had a 58% route run rate, an 11.4% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 10.9% first read share. The passing volume concerns also extend to Mayer, who drew only two targets and finished with 11 scoreless receiving yards last week. Mayer is a touchdown-or-bust TE2 at this juncture. New York is 19th in receiving yards per game and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2

CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -7.0, O/U 46.5
• Broncos vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Buffalo is 16th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
• Denver is a run-centric offense with the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Wilson is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 weeks this season. He could make those three in Week 10. Wilson has shown flashes of his former glory this season, ranking seventh in big-time throw rate and adjusted completion rate, but he has also been 20th in passing grade and yards per attempt. Since Week 5, the Buffalo Bills’ pass defense has looked like a shell of itself, giving up the seventh-highest passer rating, the eighth-highest passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. Wilson could flirt with QB1 numbers this week. Week 10 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Josh Allen: Allen remains a fantasy behemoth as the QB1 overall this season. Allen is still performing at a ridiculously high level, ranking second in passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, and fifth in adjusted completion rate. Denver has been a reformed pass defense since Week 5. The Broncos in that timeframe have allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passer rating, and second-fewest passing touchdowns. Allen has the talent and the weapons to overcome a bad matchup. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Williams has been unleashed. Before the bye, he played 63% of the snaps while logging 30 touches and 98 total yards as the RB9 for the week. Williams has been awesome on a per-touch basis all season. He is seventh in explosive run rate, 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Bills’ run defense has improved, with the fourth-highest stuff rate and the tenth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. Buffalo has also been 17th in explosive run rate in that timeframe. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

James Cook: Cook is the RB29 in fantasy, averaging 14.4 touches and 79.6 total yards. Since Week 4, Cook has only one game where he’s surpassed 15 touches, as the team has been underutilizing him. In the same span, he has only two games in which he has more than three targets. Among 45 qualifying backs, Cook is 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Broncos have remained a team that you can run on, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt while also having the third-lowest stuff rate. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR30 in fantasy with three WR or higher weeks, which ranks 13th in red zone targets. Sutton has had a 19.7% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 24.6% first read share. Since Week 5, the Bills have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers while also having the fifth-highest rate of two-high (58.3%). Against two-high, Sutton’s YPRR has dipped to 1.40, but he leads the team with six end-zone targets. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR56 this season with zero games as a WR2 or higher this season. He does have four weeks where he has managed WR3 production (WR33, WR29, WR29, WR32). Jeudy has garnered a 19.6% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share (leads the team). Since Week 5, the Bills have allowed the 9th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers while having the fifth-highest rate of two-high (58.3%). Like Sutton, Jeudy’s numbers have plummeted against two-high with a 15.6% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, 1.13 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. The matchup in the slot is good against Taron Johnson (83.3% catch rate and 124.0 passer rating), so it’s possible Jeudy can overcome his two-high woes this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR4 in fantasy, ranking top three in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Forget the matchup with him. Diggs is in your lineup weekly. No matter the defense that he is facing. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR42 in fantasy this season as the Bills’ downfield threat. Davis is 15th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has been as volatile as ever with three weeks of top 15 wide receiver production (WR14, WR7, WR9) while also logging four games outside the top 60 wide receivers in weekly scoring. Since the Bronco’s Week 5 turnaround, they have allowed the sixth-lowest passer rating and fifth-fewest deep passing yards per game. This doesn’t set up as a big Davis week. Sit Davis. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Khalil Shakir: Since Week 8, Shakir has had a 68.5% route run rate, a 12.8% target share, an 18.2% air-yard share, 2.44 YPRR, and an 8% first-read share (fourth on the team). He has finished as the WR24 and the WR32 in weekly scoring. Even with the Broncos’ pass defense improving over the last few weeks, they have remained vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the 11th-highest PPR points per target. Shakir will run about 75% of his routes against Ja’Quan McMillian (69.6% catch rate and 105.6 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: Since Week 7, Kincaid has been a revelation with a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. Over his last three games, he has been the TE7 in fantasy with four red zone looks. Kincaid should eat again this week against a pass defense that has allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF

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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.