The Primer: Week 10 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders

LV -1.0, O/U 36.5
Jets vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

New York is third in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.
Las Vegas had the second-slowest neutral pace last week with the highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: Another week. Another disappointing Zach Wilson performance. He still has only one game on his 2023 resume with more than 12 fantasy points. He is not startable in any format. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in passing grade, 31st in yards per attempt, and 29th in adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: Not fantasy viable

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell was a fine game manager last week, completing 64% of his passes with 8.4 yards per attempt. He was 15th in passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate. O’Connell performed well with what he was asked to do, but that doesn’t make him fantasy viable this week. Against an even tougher pass defense this week, he might not even attempt 25 passes this week. New York has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the third-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-lowest CPOE. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Breece Hall: Since being unleashed, Hall has finished as the RB3, RB4, RB7, and RB23 in weekly scoring. Over his last four games, Hall has averaged 20 touches and 110.1 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, Hall ranks eighth in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Hall faces a Raiders’ run defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Since Week 4, Las Vegas has given up the 13th-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Hall should decimate them. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB13 in fantasy, ranking fifth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and first in weighted opportunities. His 98 rushing yards last week are his highest rushing output this season. He has averaged 20.8 touches and 83.1 total yards. I wish I could tell you that over the last two weeks, with encouraging performances, his tackle-breaking metrics have rebounded, but they haven’t. Since Week 8 among 39 qualifying backs, he ranks 25th in explosive run rate, 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. The plus for Jacobs is that since Week 4, the Jets have been a softer run defense. Over their last five games, they have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Incredible as it sounds, Garrett Wilson has been Zach Wilson-proof. His WR22 standing in fantasy defies all logic if you’ve watched a minute of the Jets’ offense this season. Honestly, it’s just a testament to Garrett Wilson’s talent. He is sixth in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets this season. Also, the fact remains that volume can cure a lot of problems in fantasy. Wilson has had a 28.7% target share, a 48.1% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 42.9% first-read share. Wilson will run about 71% of his routes against Marcus Peters (68.3% catch rate and 101.6 passer rating) and Amik Robertson (60.7% catch rate and 66.5 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Davante Adams: In O’Connell’s two starts, Adams has had a 31.3% target share, a 47.1% air-yard share, 1.85 YPRR, and a 41.3% first-read share. That all sounds amazing, but looking at how the Raiders offense ran last week, the biggest concern for Adams is volume. Adams had a 28% target share last week, which amounted to only seven targets. That’s not a coffin nail, but this will be a run-first offense moving forward, especially this week, considering the matchup. Adams has dropped to WR20 in fantasy while still ranking 11th in deep targets and first in red zone targets among wide receivers. He will run about 83% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (72.4% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (71.4% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating). The Jets have held perimeter wide receivers to the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Jakobi Meyers: In O’Connell’s two games as the starter, Meyers has had a 14.1% target share, a 19.0% air-yard share, 1.25 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share. Meyers failed to eclipse 40 receiving yards in either game, and I don’t think he surpasses that mark this week. Meyers will run about 75% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (72.4% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (71.4% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: Since his Week 6 breakout, Mayer has had a 58% route run rate, an 11.4% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 10.9% first read share. The passing volume concerns also extend to Mayer, who drew only two targets and finished with 11 scoreless receiving yards last week. Mayer is a touchdown-or-bust TE2 at this juncture. New York is 19th in receiving yards per game and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

BUF -7.0, O/U 46.5
Broncos vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Buffalo is 16th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
Denver is a run-centric offense with the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Wilson is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with only two QB1 weeks this season. He could make those three in Week 10. Wilson has shown flashes of his former glory this season, ranking seventh in big-time throw rate and adjusted completion rate, but he has also been 20th in passing grade and yards per attempt. Since Week 5, the Buffalo Bills’ pass defense has looked like a shell of itself, giving up the seventh-highest passer rating, the eighth-highest passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. Wilson could flirt with QB1 numbers this week. Week 10 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Josh Allen: Allen remains a fantasy behemoth as the QB1 overall this season. Allen is still performing at a ridiculously high level, ranking second in passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, and fifth in adjusted completion rate. Denver has been a reformed pass defense since Week 5. The Broncos in that timeframe have allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passer rating, and second-fewest passing touchdowns. Allen has the talent and the weapons to overcome a bad matchup. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Williams has been unleashed. Before the bye, he played 63% of the snaps while logging 30 touches and 98 total yards as the RB9 for the week. Williams has been awesome on a per-touch basis all season. He is seventh in explosive run rate, 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Bills’ run defense has improved, with the fourth-highest stuff rate and the tenth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. Buffalo has also been 17th in explosive run rate in that timeframe. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

James Cook: Cook is the RB29 in fantasy, averaging 14.4 touches and 79.6 total yards. Since Week 4, Cook has only one game where he’s surpassed 15 touches, as the team has been underutilizing him. In the same span, he has only two games in which he has more than three targets. Among 45 qualifying backs, Cook is 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Broncos have remained a team that you can run on, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt while also having the third-lowest stuff rate. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR30 in fantasy with three WR or higher weeks, which ranks 13th in red zone targets. Sutton has had a 19.7% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 24.6% first read share. Since Week 5, the Bills have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers while also having the fifth-highest rate of two-high (58.3%). Against two-high, Sutton’s YPRR has dipped to 1.40, but he leads the team with six end-zone targets. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR56 this season with zero games as a WR2 or higher this season. He does have four weeks where he has managed WR3 production (WR33, WR29, WR29, WR32). Jeudy has garnered a 19.6% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share (leads the team). Since Week 5, the Bills have allowed the 9th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers while having the fifth-highest rate of two-high (58.3%). Like Sutton, Jeudy’s numbers have plummeted against two-high with a 15.6% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, 1.13 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. The matchup in the slot is good against Taron Johnson (83.3% catch rate and 124.0 passer rating), so it’s possible Jeudy can overcome his two-high woes this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR4 in fantasy, ranking top three in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Forget the matchup with him. Diggs is in your lineup weekly. No matter the defense that he is facing. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR42 in fantasy this season as the Bills’ downfield threat. Davis is 15th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has been as volatile as ever with three weeks of top 15 wide receiver production (WR14, WR7, WR9) while also logging four games outside the top 60 wide receivers in weekly scoring. Since the Bronco’s Week 5 turnaround, they have allowed the sixth-lowest passer rating and fifth-fewest deep passing yards per game. This doesn’t set up as a big Davis week. Sit Davis. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Khalil Shakir: Since Week 8, Shakir has had a 68.5% route run rate, a 12.8% target share, an 18.2% air-yard share, 2.44 YPRR, and an 8% first-read share (fourth on the team). He has finished as the WR24 and the WR32 in weekly scoring. Even with the Broncos’ pass defense improving over the last few weeks, they have remained vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the 11th-highest PPR points per target. Shakir will run about 75% of his routes against Ja’Quan McMillian (69.6% catch rate and 105.6 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: Since Week 7, Kincaid has been a revelation with a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. Over his last three games, he has been the TE7 in fantasy with four red zone looks. Kincaid should eat again this week against a pass defense that has allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears

CHI -3.5, O/U 38.5
Panthers vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

This game will be one of the slowest for the Week 10 slate. The Panthers have the fourth-slowest neutral pace, which is trumped by the Bears, who are the third-slowest in close games.
Since Week 5, the Panthers have been 11th in neutral passing rate. The Bears have taken the opposite approach all season. They have the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young: Young has been tough to watch this season. He is the QB27 in fantasy with only one outing where he surpassed 15 fantasy points. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is dead last in yards per attempt, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and 19th in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate. During this stretch, they have utilized more man coverage and have the fourth-highest rate of single-high (65.4%). Against single high, Young has seen his yards per attempt increase from 5.4 to 7.2. This is a wonderful matchup for Young to flash some of the promise that made him a top draft pick in the 2023 draft class. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Tyson Bagent: Justin Fields has still not been cleared to return, so this will be another week with Bagent under center. Last week, Bagent finished as the QB9 in fantasy as he flashed some rushing upside. Bagent’s passing numbers have been an adventure. He has the second-highest turnover-worthy throw rate and ranks outside the top 28 quarterbacks in yards per attempt (29th) and passer rating (33rd). If Bagent can reel in the off-target throws and retain some of the rushing equity we saw last week (70 rushing yards), he could flirt with QB1 numbers this week. Quarterbacks have destroyed Carolina. Over the last four weeks, Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest passer rating while ranking fifth in adjusted completion rate and fantasy points allowed via passing. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has taken Miles Sanders‘ job. Since Week 8, he has averaged 66% of the snaps with 18.5 touches and 60.5 total yards per game. Among 68 qualifying backs, he is 32nd in explosive run rate and 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Hubbard has a tough road to travel this week. The Bear’s run defense has been one of the league’s best this season, with the best stuff rate, lowest explosive run rate allowed, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt permitted. It doesn’t help Hubbard’s case that Carolina has not blocked well this season. They have the third-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2/3

Miles Sanders: Sanders has been demoted to understudy. Since Week 8, he has played 18% and 25% of the snaps, averaging 5.5 touches and 30.5 total yards. In a terrible matchup behind an offensive line that couldn’t stop a light breeze, Sanders is a hold but shouldn’t come anywhere near your fantasy lineups. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

D’Onta Foreman: Last week, Foreman led the backfield with a 59% snap share, 20 rushing attempts (zero targets), and 83 rushing yards. With the Bears expected to operate in neutral or positive game script in this matchup, Foreman should lead the running back room again. Among 68 qualifying backs, Foreman is 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. This is a smash matchup for Foreman. Carolina has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Foreman 61.5% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB2/3

Roschon Johnson: Johnson has been regulated to a backup role with 36% and 29% snap shares over the last two weeks while averaging six touches and 23 total yards per game. Johnson has only one red zone opportunity over the last two weeks (Foreman four). Johnson is now a low-end stash only. Week 10 Positional Value: Stash

Darrynton Evans: If you had Evans rostered in a deep league, it’s okay to drop him. Last week, the Bears went back to a two-way committee. Evans played only six snaps with three touches and 21 total yards. Week 10 Positional Value: Droppable

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR9 in fantasy, coming off his first disappointing game since Week 1. In Week 9, he broke a streak of six straight games as a top 24 fantasy wideout. Thielen has a 24.4% target share, a 29.0% air-yard share, 1.96 yards per route run (YPRR), and a 33.5% first-read share. He ranks 17th among wide receivers in red zone targets with seven looks inside the 20-yard line over his last four games. Chicago has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Thielen should thrive this week against the Bears’ new love for single-high. Against single-high, his target share balloons to 27.9% with a 34.2% air-yard share, 2.60 YPRR, and a 37.2% first-read share. Thielen will run about 71% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (84.2% catch rate and 115.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Jonathan Mingo: Mingo has had a 13.6% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 0.81 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. He has surpassed 50 receiving yards only once this season while only posting one week as a WR3 (WR36) in fantasy. Against single-high looks, Mingo’s target share has increased to 16.2%, and he is second on the team with a 26.6% first-read share. Mingo has five deep targets this season, but only one red zone look and that came in Week 5. He will run about 67% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (46.4% catch rate and 40.9 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (76.9% catch rate and 93.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

D.J. Chark: Chark isn’t playable until he returns to a full-time role. Last week, he only logged a 56.3% route run rate while drawing a 7.7% target share and a 9.4% air-yard share (three targets). Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

D.J. Moore: Moore has a 22.4% target share, a 43.0% air-yard share, 2.50 YPRR, and a 35.8% first-read share. Moore is the WR11 in fantasy and also ranks sixth in deep targets. Since his monster Week 5 performance, Moore has managed only one week as a WR2 or better. This is a fantastic bounce-back spot for Moore. Since Week 6, Carolina has the fifth-highest rate of single-high (64.4%). Against single-high, Moore has a 43.8% share of the team’s receiving yards, and his YPRR has climbed to 2.95. Carolina has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to boundary wide receivers (Moore 82% outside). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Darnell Mooney: Mooney is coming off arguably his best game of the season, securing five of his six targets with 82 receiving yards. Mooney has an 11.8% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 15.8% first-read share. He doesn’t have much touchdown equity in this offense, with only three red zone targets this season (one over his last four games). Carolina has been superb at defending the slot, allowing the fewest receiving yards in the NFL and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target. Mooney is a low-end flex play that is better off left on the bench this week. Week 10 Positional Value: Low-end flex/Sit

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE5 in fantasy, ranking fourth in red zone targets and second in receiving touchdowns. Kmet has been a breath of fresh air this season with two games with multiple touchdowns and five TE1 weekly finishes. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, he is ninth in target share (17.6%), 12th in YPRR (1.70), and 11th in first-read share (18.8%). Among 66 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in fantasy points per route run against single-high coverage (since Week 6, CAR is fifth in single-high). Carolina has allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception and the 12th-most fantasy points to inline tight ends (Kmet 40.5% inline). Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Streamers Weekly Advice Zach Wilson Aidan O’Connell Breece Hall Josh Jacobs Garrett Wilson Marcus Peters Amik Robertson Davante Adams Sauce Gardner D.J. Reed Jakobi Meyers Michael Mayer Russell Wilson Josh Allen Javonte Williams James Cook Courtland Sutton Jerry Jeudy Taron Johnson Stefon Diggs Gabriel Davis Khalil Shakir Ja’Quan McMillian Dalton Kincaid Bryce Young Tyson Bagent Justin Fields Chuba Hubbard Miles Sanders D’Onta Foreman Roschon Johnson Darrynton Evans Adam Thielen Kyler Gordon Jonathan Mingo Jaylon Johnson Jaylon Jones D.J. Chark D.J. Moore Darnell Mooney Cole Kmet