Derek Brown | Thu, Nov 9th 2023, 4:15pm EST

The Primer: Week 10 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals

ATL -1.5, O/U 43.5
Falcons vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Falcons have the seventh-highest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
We’ll see what the offensive approach with Kyler Murray looks like this week, but it’s worth noting that the Cardinals are 17th in neutral pace and have the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke was the QB14 in fantasy last week. His quarterback play is a rollercoaster as he was 14th in yards per attempt and 12th in big-time throw rate last week while also sitting at 23rd in passing grade and fifth-worst in turnover-worthy play rate. The good thing for Heinicke is that this week’s matchup could allow the rollercoaster ride to be a joyous event instead of ending in vomit and nausea. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate. Heinicke could flirt with QB1 numbers this week. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Kyler Murray: What version of Murray will we get in his first game back? Will he run? Will he look rusty and be firing poorly-timed passes all day? We shall see, but the matchup is glorious for Murray to have a big outing in his return if he’s right. Atlanta’s pass defense has declined recently. Since Week 5, they have given up the second-most passing touchdowns and fifth-highest passer rating. If you need upside at the quarterback position this week, Murray can absolutely smash in his return against this defense. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Weeks 8-9

Player	Rushing attempts	Targets	Routes	Red zone opportunities
Bijan Robinson	22	9	50	2
Tyler Allgeier	20	3	12	5

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has fallen to RB24 in fantasy as the Falcons have continued with their usage shenanigans. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has played 74% and 61% of the snaps, averaging 12 touches and 60.5 total yards. I could rant here for days about the usage of this backfield, but I’ll take the high road. Robinson remains one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, ranking 12th in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. I will continue to invest in that type of talent despite the headache-inducing usage so far this season. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points via rushing and the 12th-highest yard per carry to zone runs (Robinson 65% zone) while also having the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Robinson is an RB1/2 that could finish in the top three this week if ole Arthur can get out of his own way. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tyler Allgeier: Over the last two weeks, Allgeier has played 22% and 35% of the snaps while averaging 11 touches and 30.5 total yards. He has out-touched Robinson five to two over the last two weeks in the red zone. No, it doesn’t make any sense, but you know the name of the game here. Add in that Allgeier isn’t as explosive as Robinson, and the head-scratching continues. Among 45 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 37th in explosive run rate and 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Allgeier is a decent flex option this week, even if the backfield shifts more in Robinson’s favor. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points via rushing while also having the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3

James Conner: Conner was limited in practice all week (knee). Everything points to Conner returning this week. In Weeks 1-4, with Conner healthy, he was the RB21 in fantasy, averaging 18 touches and 87 total yards. Conner has been amazing when available this season, ranking third in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Atlanta has been 16th in explosive run rate while allowing the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Conner 51.5% gap). Assuming he is fully healthy, Conner should see at least 15 touches this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Drake London: London practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and hasn’t been listed with an injury designation this week. He should be a full-go this week. In Weeks 2-7, London had a 23.2% target share, a 30.2% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. He also led the team with six end-zone targets. Since Week 5, Arizona has had the fourth-highest rate of two-high (59.0%). In Weeks 2-7 against two-high, London had a 31.2% target share, a 38.1% air-yard share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 39.1% first-read share. London should smash this week. Since Week 5, Arizona has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Marquise Brown: Brown is the WR32 in fantasy, ranking 15th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. Brown has had a 25.4% target share, a 39.6% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 30.9% first-read share. Brown has five games with WR2 or higher finishes this season. Since Week 6, A.J. Terrell (65% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating) has shadowed DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Terry McLaurin. Each of the receivers has surpassed 50 receiving yards in his primary coverage, and as a unit, they have scored three touchdowns. Brown could be shadowed by Terrell this week, but as recent history has shown, that’s not a bad thing. Since Week 5, Atlanta has had the second-highest rate of two-high (66.7%). Against two high this season, Brown has had a 20.4% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 1.10 YPRR, and a 23.9% first-read share. His 1.10 YPRR is concerning no matter how you slice it, so don’t go overboard with Hollywood love this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Michael Wilson: Wilson is dealing with a shoulder issue. He has been limited in practice all week and listed as questionable. Since Week 5, Atlanta has had the second-highest rate of two-high (66.7%). Against two high this season, Wilson has had a 17.5% target share, a 32.3% air-yard share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with two end zone targets against two-high. Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Pitts is the TE17 in fantasy. Even with Drake London out of the lineup last week, Pitts couldn’t buy improved usage as he finished as the TE16. He was fourth on the team with a 13.2% target share and ranked second with a 17.2% first-read share. Overall, this season he has had a 16.9% target share, a 25.0% air-yard share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 19.0% first-read share. Arizona is 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to slot tight ends (Pitts 61.6% slot). At this point, Pitts is a TE2 that you pray for TE1 production weekly, but it likely doesn’t happen. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2

Jonnu Smith: Smith is the TE14 in fantasy after exploding with 100 receiving yards and a score last week. That was Smith’s fourth TE1 outing this season (TE3, TE12, TE4, TE5). Smith is third on the team with a 13.6% target share while also posting 2.12 YPRR and a 15.8% first-read share. Smith has three red zone targets over his last four games (Pitts one). Smith is a dart-throw TE2 that could pay big dividends in any week. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, McBride has had a 33.3% target share, a 41.7% air-yard share, 2.13 YPRR, and a 40.5% first-read share. These are bonkers usage numbers. After Clayton Tune derailed the hype train last week, we are ready to get back rolling in Week 10 with Murray’s return. The Falcons have allowed the 13th-highest receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers

DET -3, O/U 48.5
Lions vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Lions have morphed into a slow-and-throw team. Since Week 5, they have had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral passing rate.
Los Angeles has had an identity crisis as they have transformed from a pass-happy offense to a vanilla run-balanced attack. Since Week 5, they have been 16th in neutral pace and 15th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with three top-ten weekly finishes this season. Goff has been playing exceptional football all season. He is fourth in passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate. Digging even deeper, he is sixth in highly accurate throw rate and 12th in hero throw rate. This is arguably the best football of his career. The Chargers pass defense continues to struggle. Since Week 5, they have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate, and the third-highest CPOE. Overall, they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Goff should carve them up with a surgical performance in Week 10. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Justin Herbert: Herbert roasted the Bears’ secondary in Week 8, but sandwiched around that game have been QB22 and QB26 weeks where Herbert has looked like a shell of himself. Since Week 7, he has been 16th in passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and tenth in turnover-worthy play rate. Since Week 5, the Lions have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, but they have kept passers in check in every other area. They have the 14th-lowest CPOE, the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the 11th-lowest fantasy points allowed via passing. Over their last four games, Detroit has ranked tenth in pressure rate. Since Week 7, Herbert has not dealt with pressure well, with the 14th-lowest passing grade, the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, and the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. In a high total game, Herbert can likely squeeze out fantasy numbers that will put him around the QB1 status, but don’t expect a banner performance in Week 10. Week 10 Positional Value: Low-end QB1

Running Backs

David Montgomery: Montgomery practiced in full on Wednesday. I expect him to be back this week and play his usual role. In Weeks 1-5, he averaged 23.3 touches and 104.6 total yards while playing at least 71% of the snaps in three of four games. Among 45 qualifying backs, Montgomery is 19th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. I would love to tell you that Montgomery will return to a 70% snap role this week, but we could see more Gibbs this week, especially considering the matchup. If the Lions do get up early, Montgomery would be the one grinding away the clock. The Chargers have been a run defense to avoid all season. Since Week 5, they have continued to shut down backs with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest stuff rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Montgomery is still a good bet for at least 15 touches and goal-line work this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Jahmyr Gibbs: This is a new world that we are living in. One in which people have ceased to grip about Gibbs in fantasy. Yeah, averaging 25.5 touches and 157.5 total yards over your last two starts while playing at least 70% of the snaps in each can do that. In Weeks 1-4, in the three games in which Montgomery was active, Gibbs averaged 11.6 touches and 55.6 total yards playing 27-48% of the snaps. Gibbs has proven he can carry the load in Montgomery’s absence. I expect that this backfield will be closer to an even split moving forward while also understanding that game script will play a big role in each back’s usage. Gibbs has been exceptional this season with the ball in his hands. He is first in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt. He is also seventh in receiving grade, 17th in YPRR, and 13th in missed tackles forced in the passing game. Since Week 5, the Chargers have continued to shut down backs on the ground with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest stuff rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. The area that they have had issues defending is backs in the passing game. Los Angeles has allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. Gibbs should return RB2 value this week with upside for more if Detroit feeds him in the passing game early. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB7 in fantasy, ranking 11th in snap share and opportunity share. Since his return to the lineup, Ekeler has played 63-68% of the snaps, averaging 17.8 touches and 75.3 total yards. Since Ekeler’s return in Week 6, he has looked like a shadow of himself, ranking 35th in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt. Detroit has shown some weakness in the run defense department recently, but since Week 5, they are still one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Over their last five games, they have allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the ninth-lowest fantasy points via rushing. Week 10 Positional Value: Low-end RB1

Joshua Kelley: Kelley is a handcuff only. Over the last two weeks he has averaged only five touches and 21.5 total yards. Week 10 Positional Value: Handcuff

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR6 in fantasy, commanding a 28.3% target share, a 32.3% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and a 35.7% first-read share. St. Brown has eclipse 100 receiving yards in five of his seven games this season. He is top 12 in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch among wide receivers. St. Brown will run about 51% of his routes against Ja’Sir Taylor (60% catch rate and 71.8 passer rating). The Chargers have allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Jameson Williams: Since his return in Week 5, Williams has had a 33.9% route run rate, a 9.3% target share, a 25% target per route run rate, and a 15.1 aDOT. We’ll see what his role is coming out of the bye, but he could see a snap bump. Williams could pop off with a big game this week, even on limited touches against a secondary that has allowed the fifth-highest deep passing yards per game and the seventh-highest depth-adjusted completion rate. Williams will run about 66% of his snaps against Asante Samuel Jr. (70.9% catch rate and 95.6 passer rating) and Michael Davis (62.7% catch rate and 110.5 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Josh Reynolds: With Williams back, Reynolds has seen his route run rate and target share decline to 64.9% and 7.4% respectively. He has still led the team with two end zone targets in this span. Reynolds will run about 58% of his snaps against Asante Samuel Jr. (70.9% catch rate and 95.6 passer rating) and Michael Davis (62.7% catch rate and 110.5 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4

Keenan Allen: Allen is the WR5 in fantasy ranking top-24 in red zone and deep targets. Without Mike Williams, Allen has had a 26.7% target share, a 38.1% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 38% first-read share. Allen will run about 62% of his routes against Brian Branch (70.8% catch rate and 106.4 passer rating). Detroit has allowed the second-highest PPR points and the most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Quentin Johnston: Last week without Joshua Palmer, Johnston had a 100% route run rate, a 7.1% target share, 0.56 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share in a tough matchup. The avenues for Johnston to succeed in this matchup via yards after the catch and deep passing aren’t promising. Detroit has allowed the third-lowest yards after the catch and has given up the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and depth-adjusted completion rate with deep passing. Johnston will run about 72% of his routes against Jerry Jacobs (61.9% catch rate and 73.5 passer rating) and Cameron Sutton (60.5% catch rate and 92.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame continues crushing this season as the TE4 in fantasy. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in target share (20.1%), sixth in YPRR (1.97), and eighth in first-read share (20.7%). The Chargers have been a glorious matchup for tight ends, giving up the second-highest receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest fantasy points per game. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

DAL -17.5, O/U 39
Giants vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 5, the Cowboys look like a team that rehired Kellen Moore. They have been seventh in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.
We’ll see what the neutral pace looks like for the Giants this week with a different quarterback, but I would not expect this offense to sprint. New York leads the NFL in neutral rushing rate, and I do expect that to continue.

Quarterbacks

Tommy DeVito: Let’s keep this short and sweet. There’s no way DeVito is making it anywhere close to fantasy lineups. In his limited action this season, he has had 6.4 yards per attempt, a 62.9 passer rating, and zero big-time throws. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Dak Prescott: Since Week 6, Prescott has been playing some of the best football of his career. Over his last three games, he ranks first in passing grade, yards per attempt, and big-time throw rate with QB1, QB3, and QB2 finishes. The Giants will be a tougher test through the air than many realize. While they have been destroyed on the ground all season, their pass defense has started to take shape. Since Week 6, they have the highest man coverage rate (51.7%) in the NFL. In this stretch, they have held passers to the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate. Against man coverage this season, Prescott has feasted with the sixth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating while also ranking eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Prescott will also have to deal with the blitz this week as the Giants have the second-highest blitz rate (43.1%) despite ranking 15th in pressure rate. Against the blitz, Prescott is sixth in passing grade, eighth in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Since Barkley’s return in Week 6, he has averaged 27.6 touches and 114.3 total yards, playing at least 75% of the snaps weekly. Barkley is second in snap share and opportunity share while also ranking 12th in weighted opportunities. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is 14th in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Barkley will have to overcome a tough matchup with volume this week. Since Week 5, Dallas has allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Barkley is a volume play at this point. Week 10 Positional Value: Low-end RB1

Tony Pollard: My preseason RB1 has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this season. He is RB18 in fantasy and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Since Dallas has skewed more pass-heavy (Week 6), Pollard has retained his lead role, playing at least 77% of the snaps if we take out the blowout win against the Rams. He has averaged 16.3 touches and 76 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is 20th in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Luckily for Pollard, the Giants remain putrid against the run. Since Week 5, they have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate and the highest yards before contact per attempt with the eighth-lowest stuff rate. Pollard ran for 5.0 yards per carry with two scores against this defense in Week 1. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Rico Dowdle: Dowdle is only a handcuff. He has failed to surpass 20% of the snaps played in two of his last three games. Since Week 6 (excluding the Rams blowout), Dowdle has averaged only 2.5 touches and ten total yards. Week 10 Positional Value: Handcuff only

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson: Since Week 4, Robinson has had a 59.6% route run rate, a 16.1% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 19.0% first-read share. He has two top-36 fantasy finishes this season. He should soak up empty PPR targets this week, but the chances of him scoring are slim as he has only one red zone look this season and zero deep targets. The big plus for Robinson is that Dallas has had issues containing slot receivers all season. Dallas has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-highest passer rating to slot receivers. Robinson will run about 85% of his routes against Jourdan Lewis (65.2% catch rate and 134.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: PPR WR4/5 with WR3 upside

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR7 in fantasy, and he’s been on fire. Lamb has at least 117 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Since Week 6, Lamb ranks first in target share (34.3%), seventh in air-yard share (45.8%), first in YPRR (3.88), and sixth in first-read share (37.7%). Since Week 6, the Giants have led the NFL in man coverage rate (51.7%). In his last three games against man, Lamb has had a 38.9% target share, a 52.9% air-yard share, 5.51 (WOW!) YPRR, and a 44.4% first-read share. Lamb will add the Giants to his recent list of victims this week. Lamb will run about 65% of his routes against Cor’Dale Flott (60.7% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Michael Gallup: Since Week 8, Gallup has split routes with Jalen Tolbert. He has had only a 46.8% route run rate and a 7.7% target share. Gallup has been droppable for a few weeks. Week 10 Positional Value: Droppable

Brandin Cooks: Since Lamb has taken over as the team’s must-feed alpha, Cooks has seen a 9.3% target share, an 11.6% air-yard share, and produced only 0.88 YPRR. During the same stretch against man coverage, he has only churned out 0.97 YPRR and an 11.1% first-read share. Cooks is also droppable. Week 10 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson has emerged as a full-time player in this offense and the team’s clear second receiving option behind only Lamb. Over the last two games, Ferguson has had a 17.9% target share, 1.73 YPRR, and an 18.2% first read share. All of those figures are second to only Lamb. Against man coverage, Ferguson has shined with a 19.8% target share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 20.3% first-read share this season. New York has given up the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends this season. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks

SEA -6, O/U 44.5
Commanders vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Commanders punch their slow-and-throw card weekly, ranking 18th in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.
The Seahawks are 11th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Howell is the QB10 in fantasy. He has been a passing volume monster, ranking first in passing attempts, second in passing yards, and first in air yards. He is the QB20 in fantasy points per dropback, but the volume has helped prop him up as the QB3 in expected fantasy points per game. Howell has been an adventure, ranking 26th in passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, fifth in big-time throw rate, and 11th-highest in turnover-worthy play rate. The volume will remain on his side, but this week’s matchup is gruesome. Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest fantasy points via passing. Week 10 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Geno Smith: Smith has gotten a bad rap this season for his play. He only has one QB1 performance on his resume this season, but his deeper passing metrics all scream that he is playing better than that. Smith is 13th in passing grade, big-time throw rate, and adjusted completion rate. Smith is fifth in hero throw rate. Smith should post his second QB1 game of the season against Washington this week. Since Week 4, the Commanders have given up the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passing yards per game, and the fifth-highest passer rating. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: Robinson is the RB23 in fantasy this season, averaging 14.2 touches and 64.9 total yards. He is 27th in snap share, 17th in opportunity share, and 22nd in weighted opportunities. Robinson is 18th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Prior to last week’s debacle against Baltimore, Seattle was a tough run defense, and I still believe that to be true. In Weeks 1-8, they had the eighth-best stuff rate, the ninth-lowest missed tackles per attempt allowed, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact permitted. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3

Antonio Gibson: Over his last five games, Gibson has averaged only six touches and 49.8 total yards. I’m not chasing last week’s usage into Week 10. Gibson’s primary utility is through the air, but this matchup doesn’t lend itself to smash numbers from Gibson on limited volume. Seattle has allowed the 13th-lowest yards per reception and the 14th-lowest receiving yards per game to running backs. Week 10 Positional Value: RB4

Kenneth Walker: Walker is dealing with a chest injury, but he practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. It’s easy to see that Walker isn’t fully healthy just from his playing time the last two weeks. He has averaged 45% of the snaps with 9.5 touches and 43.5 total yards per game. His tackle-breaking metrics have also reflected this, with a 12% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.47 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, Washington has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, but they have also given up the 11th-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Walker could have an RB2-worthy day on limited volume, but he likely needs to break a big run or get in the end zone. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2/3

Zach Charbonnet: With Walker banged up the last two weeks, Charbonnet has played at least 55% of the snaps in each game, averaging six touches and 38.5 total yards. Charbonnet has continued to be explosive anytime he has the ball in his hands. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 22.2% explosive run rate, a 22% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, and 4.33 yards after contact per attempt. While the snap shares and explosive metrics are encouraging, Charbonnet hasn’t seen enough volume weekly to consider him as anything more than a flex play. Since Week 5, Washington has allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, but they have also given up the 11th-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3/Flex

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR26 in fantasy, ranking 11th in deep targets and 37th in red zone targets. He has had at least 63 receiving yards in each of his last four games without posting any ceiling performances. McLaurin has had a 19.3% target share, a 29.3% air-yard share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. Since Week 4, the Seahawks have allowed the sixth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3

Jahan Dotson: In Weeks 1-7 with Samuel on the field, Dotson handled a 14.1% target share, a 17.8% air-yard share, and a 17.8% first-read share. In that span, he had only one game as a top-36 wide receiver (WR28). He also registered six red zone targets but they came in bunches in only two games. I think Dotson’s recent hot streak (WR7, WR9) ends this week. Since Week 4, the Seahawks have allowed the sixth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Curtis Samuel: In Samuel’s seven full games, he has had a 15.2% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and an 18.9% first-read share. Samuel has three games as a top 24 wideout this season (WR12, WR14, WR23). Seattle hasn’t been giving to slot receivers. Since Week 5 they have allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns. Sit Samuel. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is the WR35 in fantasy this season, commanding a 20.8% target share and a 39.7% air-yard share with 2.17 YPRR and a 28.7% first-read share. His high cholesterol targets have been bountiful as he is 22nd in deep targets and third in red zone targets among receivers. He has only two scores this season, which means that better days are ahead, and that could start this week. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns. Washington has the sixth-highest rate of two high (56.6%). Metcalf has been Seattle’s answer for two high since Week 5 with a team-leading 24.5% target share, 44.1% air-yard share, and six end-zone targets. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tyler Lockett: It’s fair to question if we see a “fully healthy” version of Lockett this season. He opened this week with a limited practice as he continues to deal with a hamstring issue. Lockett has had a 20.8% target share, a 34.5% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. Lockett is the WR34 in fantasy, ranking 13th in red zone targets this season. Since Week 4, Washington has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns. Washington has the sixth-highest rate of two high (56.6%). Lockett is second on the team in nearly every receiving category against two high since Week 5 with a 21.7% target share, a 35.1% air-yard share, and a 27.5% first-read share. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba opened the week with a DNP (hip), but he practiced in full the rest of the week. I think he’ll have his usual workload this week. Against two high since Week 5, he has seen a 15.1% target share with 1.65 YPRR and an 18.8% first read share. Smith-Njigba has zero end-zone targets in this three-game sample. There’s reason for optimism this week, as the Commanders can’t guard slot receivers. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target and most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE12 in fantasy with a 15.2% target share (17th) and an 11.0% air-yard share (17th). Thomas ranks seventh in deep targets and 12th in red zone looks among tight ends. Seattle is a favorable matchup, allowing the seventh-highest receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL

The Primer: Week 10 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals

Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks

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