Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -3, O/U 39
• Packers vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Packers have been trying to hide Jordan Love. Since Week 5, they have had the second-slowest neutral pace with the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 5, the Steelers have picked up the pace in close games (12th in neutral pace) while remaining committed to running the ball (seventh in neutral rushing rate).

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love is the QB15 in fantasy, but that doesn’t accurately reflect his recent play. Since Week 5, he has finished as the QB15 or higher only twice. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Love is 24th in passing grade, 25th in yards per attempt, and 34th in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 5, the Steelers have clamped down on quarterbacks with the lowest passing touchdowns allowed, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-fewest fantasy points via passing permitted. The Steelers can also get after the quarterback, which has been Love’s kryptonite. Pittsburgh is third in blitz rate and sixth in pressure rate. Against pressure, Love has the tenth-lowest passing grade and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is a basement-level QB2. He has zero QB1 finishes this season and hasn’t been better than QB15 in any week. He hasn’t passed for at least 250 yards in any game this season and has only one outing with multiple passing touchdowns. Even in Superflex, you can probably get more production by starting a positional player over Pickett. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Last week, Jones saw his highest workload and snap share of the season. He played 57% of the snaps with 24 touches and 99 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics still resemble those of a back who is not fully healthy. Jones had zero explosive runs while forcing only two missed tackles with 1.95 yards after contact per attempt. The sad thing is even in his diluted state, Jones is still better than A.J. Dillon. The Steelers are an exploitable matchup for Jones, even at less than full strength. Since Week 5, Pittsburgh has had the 12th-lowest stuff rate while ranking 17th in missed tackles per attempt and giving up the 13th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 67.3% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

A.J. Dillon: Dillon played his lowest snap share of the season last week (40%) as he handled ten touches, turning them into 43 total yards. Dillons has been an utter disappointment again this season. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is dead last in explosive run rate and 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt. If Jones’ snaps climb even higher this week as the team searches for a spark on offense, Dillon will carry even less value. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit / RB4

Najee Harris: Harris has climbed to RB36 in fantasy with three straight top-24 weeks (RB13, RB22, RB12). Since Week 7, he has averaged 15.6 touches and 66.3 total yards. Harris has also been the team’s preferred red zone option, with eight red zone opportunities over the last three games (Warren two). Harris has been explosive. We can’t ignore it. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is sixth in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 4, the Packers have remained a favorable matchup for backs, allowing the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Harris looks primed for his best outing of the season. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Jaylen Warren: Warren is the RB33 in fantasy with RB2 outings in five of his last seven games. Over that span, he has averaged 11 touches and 64.8 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics are scintillating as he is fifth in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Warren’s lack of red zone involvement over the last three games (only two red zone opportunities) caps his upside unless he breaks off a long run for a touchdown, but this week’s matchup could allow that. Since Week 4, the Packers have remained a favorable matchup for backs, allowing the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Harris looks primed for his best outing of the season. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: With Love struggling, this entire passing offense has been hampered. Since Watson has returned to a full-time role, he has had a 17.1% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 1.81 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. He has only two red zone targets over his last four games while noting that both came in Week 8. Over the last two weeks, the Steelers have allowed Joey Porter Jr. (28.6% catch rate and 46.3 passer rating) to shadow as he followed Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins on 50-76.5% for their routes allowing an average of only 36 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. Don’t expect Watson to do much this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4

Romeo Doubs: Since Watson’s return to the lineup in a full-time capacity, Doubs has only a 16.3% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, 0.81 YPRR, and an 18.4% first-read share. Since Week 5, Doubs has finished inside the top 36 wide receivers only once (WR33). He is tenth in red zone targets among wide receivers, so it’s possible he luck boxes a touchdown this week to reverse that trend but I’m not counting on it. If Porter Jr. is glued to Watson, Doubs should see a combination of Patrick Peterson (60.5% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and Levi Wallace (58.8% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4

Jayden Reed: Last week Reed saw his snaps cut to 39% without warning. He drew only three targets and finished with 19 receiving yards. As the third or fourth option in a Love-led offense, Reed is an easy sit candidate this week as we see if his playing time can bounce back. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

Weeks 8-9

Diontae Johnson: Johnson has reestablished himself as the team’s clear WR1 over the last two weeks. His 31.5% target share, 49% air-yard share, 2.36 YPRR, and 37.5% first-read share have spoken volumes. Johnson finally scored a touchdown last week and has three red zone targets over his last two games. Since returning in Week 7, he has finished as the WR23, WR20, and WR6 in weekly scoring. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

George Pickens: Pickens has faded into the background with a healthy Johnson back in the lineup with a 13.7% target share, 25.6% air-yard share, 0.30 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. He has finished as the WR53 and WR91 in fantasy over the last two weeks. With his 13.9 aDOT over that span, Pickens has returned to the field stretching role he had last year with Johnson in the lineup. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest passer rating and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing this season, so there’s an avenue for Pickens to finish with a nice day if he and Pickett can sync up. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave is the TE20 this season with a 13.7% target share, a 10.1% air-yard share, and four red zone targets. Last week, he managed his second TE1 finish of the season with his first red zone target since Week 3 and his first touchdown of the year. Pittsburgh has made things difficult for tight ends, allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest fantasy points per game to the position. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2

CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF

Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -1.5, O/U 39
• Titans vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Will Levis under center, the Titans have been 11th in neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral rushing rate.
• This game is quietly one of the best in this slate for play volume. Since Week 5, the Bucs have been fifth in neutral pace while also sitting at eighth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: Levis has been an adventure during his brief NFL action. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks ninth in yards per attempt and first in big-time throw rate, but he also has the seventh-highest turnover-worthy-play rate while sitting at 36th in adjusted completion rate. Levis is 37th in catchable throw rate. Levis should post another solid stat line and continue to build the hope and hype this week against a Bucs secondary that has been burned repeatedly. They have allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the second-highest passing yards per game. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is the QB18 in fantasy, ranking 15th in passing grade, 24th in adjusted completion rate, and 21st in yards per attempt. Since Week 5, Tennessee has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 15th in passer rating and 14th in adjusted completion rate. With Tennessee’s penchant for slowing games down, they have faced the fourth-fewest passing attempts over their last four games while also giving up the second-fewest passing touchdowns. Mayfield should post a healthy QB2 stat line this week. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB12 in fantasy, ranking 12th in opportunity share, 14th in weighted opportunities, and third in carries. With the Titans’ offensive struggles this season, he is only 28th in red zone touches. Henry has still shown no signs of slowing down. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Tampa Bay is a pass funnel. They have shut down rushing attacks all season. Since Week 5, they have surrendered the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Henry is a volume-driven play this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tyjae Spears: Spears offers some stand-alone value in the right matchup, but that is not this week’s matchup. Over the last two weeks, Spears has averaged 7.5 touches and 29 total yards. He remains one of the best handcuffs in fantasy, but he isn’t playable this week against a run defense that prides itself on shutting down running backs. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Week 10 Positional Value: Handcuff

Rachaad White: White is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, with his pass game role doing the heavy lifting for his fantasy value. White is tenth in targets, 13th in target share, and second in reception among backs. That pass-game role has been a saving grace, as he has only three touchdowns this season, with two of those coming last week. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. White gets the Titans at a good time because their run defense has faltered lately. Since Week 5, they have had the 13th-lowest stuff rate while giving up the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt and the highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 57.1% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: With Levis under center, Hopkins has had a 23.5% target share, a 40.2% air-yard share, 3.24 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Overall, Hopkins is the WR24 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets among receivers. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Treylon Burks: Burks has been ruled out. 

Kyle Philips: Last week, Philips only played 30% of the snaps with a 42.2% route run rate, but he drew a 12.8% target share (26% target per route run rate) with 68 receiving yards and 3.58 YPRR. He led the team in slot routes (77% slot). Philips is a great flex option this week. With Burks likely to miss, Philips should see more playing time as Nick Wesbrook-Ikhine moves to the boundary. Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Mike Evans: I wrote Evans off during the off-season. Wow, he has proved me wrong. He is the WR12 in fantasy, ranking eighth in deep targets among wide receivers. He is tenth in open score. He has had a 20.9% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 2.53 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Since Week 5, the Titans have the seventh-highest rate of two-high (55.1%). Against two-high, Evans’ target share has increased to 22.2%, and his first-read share has climbed to 30.5%. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2

Chris Godwin: Godwin is the WR36 in fantasy, ranking seventh among wide receivers in red zone targets. Godwin has had a 22.4% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share. Against two-high looks, his target share has dropped to 20.4%, with his YPRR (1.76) and first-read share (24.8%) also dipping. Godwin is a solid WR3. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo is the TE29 in fantasy. He has not finished higher than TE17 in any week. He has only two red zone targets this season (both came in Week 5) and two games in which he garnered more than four targets. Okonkwo is droppable. Week 10 Positional Value: Droppable

Cade Otton: Otton has been a match-up-based streamer all season as the TE16 in fantasy. Otton has three weeks this season with TE1 production. Last week, he crushed with 70 receiving yards and two scores, but that came against Houston, which is one of the best matchups a tight end can draw this season. This week is a different story. Tennessee has allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They are the only defense in the NFL yet to allow a touchdown to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit

CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• SF -3, O/U 45
• 49ers vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• San Francisco has the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking eighth in neutral rushing rate.
• Jacksonville is a vanilla, run-balanced affair. Since Week 5, they have been 17th in neutral pace with the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: Purdy is the QB14 in fantasy. After two down games, he rebounded in fantasy with a QB12 outing in Week 8. Purdy has four weeks with QB1 fantasy output this season. Looking at his full-season resume, Purdy has still been quite good for fantasy while we can poke some holes in his real-life quarterback play. Purdy is first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and third in fantasy points per dropback, but he is also 25th in highly accurate throw rate and 20th in hero throw rate. This speaks to Purdy being a serviceable real-life quarterback, but he’s not among the league’s elites. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has had the third-highest rate of zone coverage (82.2%). Against zone, Purdy has been ninth in first-read rate, so expect him to zero in on San Francisco’s zone-beater this week. Jacksonville has been a pass funnel, but not one that we should be heavily targeting. Since Week 5, they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game, but they also are tied for the most interceptions, the tenth-lowest passing touchdowns, and the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Purdy should be able to rack up the yardage this week, but touchdowns and efficiency will be the question marks. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1 

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been underwhelming in fantasy this season as the QB19 in fantasy. He has only three QB1 weeks this season, and two of those performances came against the Colts. Lawrence is 15th in yards per attempt, 13th in passer rating, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, the 49ers have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate as their pass defense has hit a lull. Defending deep passing has been their biggest issue, as they have given up the fifth-highest deep yards per attempt and the tenth-highest deep passer rating and depth-adjusted completion rate. If Lawrence can navigate the 49ers’ pressure (tenth-best pressure rate), he should be able to carve them up deep. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is the RB2 in fantasy, ranking third in snap share, sixth in opportunity share, and third in weighted opportunities. He is also top-five in carries, targets, and red zone touches. He has averaged 21.1 touches and 118 total yards. He has finished outside the top 12 backs in weekly scoring only once (RB15). Among 45 qualifying backs, McCaffrey ranks 11th in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey will have issues producing on the ground this week against a Jaguars run defense that has given up the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. Jacksonville is 16th in touchdown rate, and they have allowed the most receptions to running backs, so it’s not all doom and gloom this week for McCaffrey. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Travis Etienne: Etienne has crushed any off-season expectations that I had for him. He is the RB4 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share and opportunity share while also sitting at second in weighted opportunities. Etienne has been a volume monster, ranking second in carries and sixth in targets among running backs. He is 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a 49ers run defense that has taken a step back this season. Since Week 5, they have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Etienne 45.7% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR13 in fantasy this season, ranking tenth in deep targets and first in open score. Aiyuk is 11th in target share (27.7%), second in air-yard share (48.2%), second in YPRR (3.58), and 16th in first-read share (32.3%). Since Week 5, the Jaguars have had the ninth-highest rate of two-high in the NFL (53.6%). Against two-high Aiyuk with a healthy Deebo Samuel, he has had a 25.6% target share, a 48.5% air-yard share, 4.76 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share. Aiyuk and Samuel should crush this week. Since Week 5, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to outside wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has practiced in full all week and carries no injury designation into Week 10. In Weeks 1-5, Samuel had a 21.9% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, 2.42 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share as the WR24 in fantasy. Since Week 5, the Jaguars have had the ninth-highest rate of two-high in the NFL (53.6%). Against two-high, Samuel has dominated with a 29.0% target share, a 27.9% air-yard share, 4.32 YPRR, and a 36.6% first-read share. Samuel will announce his return loudly this week with a monster game. Week 10 Positional Value: WR1

Calvin Ridley: Ridley has underperformed versus expectation this season as the WR41 in fantasy. He has been a WR3 or better in only 50% of his games this season. Ridley has a 20.7% target share, a 39.8% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Since Week 5, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 55.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high Ridley has seen his numbers jump across the board with a 25.8% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 29.7% first read share. Ridley also leads the team in deep targets with 13 (Kirk seven), so if Lawrence is looking to attack this secondary deep Ridley will be the main weapon. Ridley will run about 84% of his routes against Charvarius Wards (59.6% catch rate and 77.6 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (69.1% catch rate and 76.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Christian Kirk: Kirk is the WR22 in fantasy with a 21.1% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, 2.06 YPRR, and a team-leading 24.3% first-read share. Against single-high (55.3% of the 49ers snaps since Week 5), his target share drops to 16.6% (1.66 YPRR), his air-yard share falls to 22.0%, and his first-read share declines to 17.2%. Kirk will run about 72% of his routes against Isaiah Olive (87.5% catch rate and 109.5 passer rating). The plus for Kirk is that Oliver has struggled mightily in recent weeks. Since Week 5, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the third-most receiving touchdowns to slot wideouts. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Zay Jones: Jones has been ruled out. 

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE6 in fantasy, ranking second in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets among tight ends. Kittle has had an 18.7% target share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 20.9% first-read share. Since Week 5, the Jaguars have had the ninth-highest rate of two-high in the NFL (53.6%). Against two-high, Kittle’s numbers have declined across the board with a 15.2% target share, 1.91 YPRR, and a 17.7% first-read share. The plus for Kittle is that the Jaguars have allowed the eighth-highest receiving yards per game and the ninth-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE7 in fantasy with a team-leading 21.1% target share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. Engram still has zero touchdowns this season. Luckily for him, he finally saw his first two red zone targets of the season in his last game. Against single-high (since Week 5, 55.3% of the 49ers’ snaps), Engram is second on the team with a 23.9% target share, 2.16 YPRR (first), and a 27.3% first-read share. While the 49ers have been tough on tight ends, Engram essentially is another slot receiver for the Jaguars (52.5% slot), so the math changes some. Since Week 5, the 49ers have allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the third-most receiving touchdowns to slot wideouts. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -6.5, O/U 38.5
• Browns vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will be slow and run heavy. While Cleveland is ninth in neutral rushing rate, the Ravens have the ninth-slowest neutral pace. Each team ranks inside the top-eight in neutral rushing rate (CLE seventh, BAL third).

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson: Watson’s passing metrics have been gross, but he has been producing in fantasy with three QB1 outings in his four full games played (QB5, QB10, QB8). Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 18th in passing grade, 25th in yards per attempt, and 28th in adjusted completion rate. Baltimore has been a brutal matchup for quarterbacks all season. Since Week 6, they have allowed the third-lowest passer rating and yards per attempt. Over the last four weeks, they have held quarterbacks to the second-fewest fantasy points via passing. I wouldn’t expect anything more than QB2 fantasy numbers from Watson in Week 10. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is the QB7 in fantasy after two subpar fantasy performances where Baltimore just ran the ball down their opponent’s throats, and the touchdowns flowed to Gus Edwards. Jackson has been playing at an extremely high level as a passer, ranking fourth in yards per attempt, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and fourth in hero throw rate. Add in his rushing upside (first in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns), and you have a fantasy quarterback that can go nuclear any week. Since Week 6, the Browns have utilized the third-highest rate of man coverage (42.0%) and the highest rate of single-high (73.3%). Against man coverage and single-high looks, Jackson’s fantasy points per dropback has dropped from 0.57 (overall) to 0.43. That ranks 25th against man coverage and 13th against single-high. Anyway, you slice it, this is a tough draw for Jackson as he faces a Browns’ secondary that, over the last four weeks, has given up the fourth-lowest passer rating, the lowest adjusted completion rate, and the 13th-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Jerome Ford: Ford reclaimed his lead role last week with 64% of the snaps played 25 touches and 77 total yards. The problem is Ford still isn’t 100% and it’s showing in his tackle breaking metrics. Last week he didn’t have an explosive run while he struggled with 1.65 yards after contact against a pushover run defense. We could see Ford bounce back this week if he is closer to full strength. In Weeks 1-7, he was one of the most explosive runners in the NFL. Among 59 qualifying backs, he was 16th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Ford will face off against an average Baltimore run defense. Since Week 5 the Ravens have the ninth-best stuff rate, but they are also 15th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Ford is a good bet for 20 touches again this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2

Kareem Hunt: With Ford inching closer to healthy, Hunt’s snaps declined (29%) as he finished last week with 14 touches and 38 total yards. Hunt is cooked at this stage of his career. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 44th in missed tackles forced per attempt and dead last in yards after contact per attempt. Hunt’s best asset currently is his red zone role with the team. Last week he had three red zone opportunities versus Ford’s two. Maybe the red zone leans back in Ford’s direction this week, but Hunt should still stay involved inside the 20-yard line. Since Week 5 the Ravens have the ninth-best stuff rate, but they are also 15th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Hunt should log 10-15 touches this week with the shot at a touchdown. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3

Gus Edwards: Edwards is the RB26 in fantasy, ranking 33rd in opportunity share and 34th in weighted opportunity. Edwards is also 19th in red zone touches. He has run hot with touchdowns over the last three games with six scores. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards played only 18% of the snaps last week after not playing less than 50% of the snaps in his last three games. This can be attributed to Baltimore blowing the doors off Seattle last week. Edwards should smash the Browns, who, since Week 5, have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Justice Hill: In the three games prior to last week’s blowout, Hill had played a complementary role to Edwards averaging eight touches and 46 total yards. He was out touched 13 to 4 in the red zone in those games with Edwards hogging all the work inside the 20. Among 45 qualifying backs, Hill is 27th in explosive run rate and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. He is a low-end flex play and only gets mild consideration in 12 team leagues because the rushing matchup is that good. Since Week 5, the Browns have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB3/4

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell could very well turn out to be a stretch run difference maker, but we need to see him work into this backfield in a non-blowout game. Last week he played only 14 snaps with ten touches and 134 total yards. With Edwards playing well I doubt Mitchell pushes him out of the picture, but it’s possible he can hop Hill and take over his role. For now, stash him and see how his role evolves. Week 10 Positional Value: Stash

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: In Watson’s four full games, Cooper has finished as the WR57, WR29, WR10, and WR4. In those games, Cooper has had a 22.0% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. Cooper is fifth among wideouts in deep targets, but he has drawn only five red zone targets this season (two in Watson’s four full games). Cooper will run about 76% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (64.3% catch rate and 104.5 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (62.1% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating). Baltimore has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and only two receiving touchdowns to boundary wide receivers this season. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3

Cedric Tillman: Tillman is an interesting deep league stash. Last week he only drew one target, but he had a 63% route run rate. His role in this offense could continue to grow as the team has been searching for a consistent secondary receiving threat all season. Week 10 Positional Value: Stash

Elijah Moore: In Watson’s four full starts, Moore has had a 15.6% target share, a 14.5% air-yard share, 0.78 YPRR, and a 13.1% first-read share. Moore hasn’t finished as a top 36 fantasy wide receiver in any game this season. At this point he is droppable. With Watson under center, he hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1. Week 10 Positional Value: Droppable

Zay Flowers: Flowers has had back-to-back disappointing outings, dropping him to WR45 in fantasy. He is still rocking a 23.4% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 26.0% first-read share. Since Week 8, Flowers only has an 11.7% target share, and 8.5% air-yard share as Mark Andrews has been the team’s WR1. Flowers has still led the team with a 77.1% route run rate. Since Week 6, the Browns have been third in man coverage rate (42%). Against man, Flowers has had a 24.4% target share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share (leads the team). Since Week 6, the Browns have been mere mortals against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.1% catch rate and 80.6% passer rating) and Martin Emerson (39.4% catch rate and 40.8 passer rating). The Browns are a tough matchup that has stumbled recently. Flowers will have his work cut out for him this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4

Odell Beckham Jr.: Over the last two games, Beckham Jr. has remained only a part time player with a 58.6% route run rate. He has seen an 18.3% target share, a 26.9% air-yard share, and a 20.8% first-read share. Beckham Jr. hasn’t done much with the volume with only 56 total receiving yards and 1.37 YPRR. Beckham Jr. does lead the team in target per route run rate (32%) and end zone targets (four) against man coverage, so there’s a faint silver lining for Beckham Jr. in this matchup. He will run about 87% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.1% catch rate and 80.6% passer rating) and Martin Emerson (39.4% catch rate and 40.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

David Njoku: In Watson’s four full starts, Njoku has had a 12.9% target share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 15.2% first-read share. These numbers look bleak, but they don’t tell the entire story. The Browns did not involve arguably their best-receiving threat behind Cooper early this season. They have corrected that error since Week 7, as Njoku has had a 22.2% target share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 23.9% first-read share. Since Week 7, Njoku has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game. The problem for Njoku is that Baltimore has been exceptional at guarding tight ends this season. They have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards and the second-lowest yard per reception (one receiving touchdown) to the position. Week 10 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Mark Andrews: Andrews is the TE2 in fantasy, ranking third in red zone targets and first in total touchdowns (six). Andrews dropped 80 receiving yards and two scores on this defense in Week 4. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, Andrews ranks third in target share (22.6%), fifth in YPRR (2.06), and fourth in first-read share (23.8%). The Browns have blanketed tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-lowest yards per reception and the fewest fantasy points. Andrews is a unicorn and can overcome bad matchups like he did last time against this defense. If you have him, you’re starting him. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF