Welcome to the Week 10 Fantasy Football Primer. My weekly stat-filled novella to assist you with your fantasy lineup decisions. I try to handle the heavy lifting in the spreadsheets and matchups so you don’t have to. The NFL season is speeding along at warp speed, with the fantasy playoffs peeking over the horizon. I’ll keep this short and sweet this week. Let’s get into the slate.
CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF
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Fantasy Football Primer
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Gardner Minshew took over as the team’s starter in Week 6, the Colts are 11th-best in neutral pace with the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- This game will quietly have the healthiest play volume of the Week 10 slate. New England is second in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew: Since assuming the starting role in Week 6, Minshew has only one top 12 fantasy finish (QB3 in Week 7). Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Minshew is 23rd in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, and 29th in highly accurate throw rate. All of these QB2-worthy metrics line up with his 22nd ranking in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 6, the Patriots have been a below-average pass defense. In this timeframe, they have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the fourth-most passing yards per game. Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points via passing. Minshew is a solid QB2 who could flirt with top-12 numbers this week. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2
Mac Jones: Jones is the QB30 in fantasy with only two QB1 weeks on his resume this season. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 27th in passing grade, 30th in yards per attempt, and 29th in adjusted completion rate. Jones is no more than another low-end QB2 this week in a bad matchup. Since Week 6, Indy has been a tough pass defense to lock horns with. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, sixth-lowest passer rating, and the 13th-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor: Yes, Taylor flopped in a smash spot last week with 23 touches and only 69 total yards, but let’s not lose sight that he is back! Taylor is now the Colt’s workhorse back. After the slow ramp-up, Taylor played 74% of the snaps last week with a 67.9% route run rate and a 19.2% target share. Since Week 7, he has been seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor will need every bit of his efficiency this week against a tough Patriots run defense. New England has allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Taylor can compensate for the rushing worries with his pass game role, though, against a defense that has also given up the fifth-most receptions and the sixth-most receiving yards to backs. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1
Zack Moss: Moss has slid down the hill into handcuff-only status. With Taylor assuming a near bell-cow workload last week (74% of the snaps), Moss played only 21% of the snaps with seven touches and 26 total yards. He didn’t see a target, as Taylor was also the team’s primary receiving back. Hold Moss because we’ve seen what his role is without Taylor, so the high-end handcuff value is there, but his stand-alone value has been vaporized. Week 10 Positional Value: RB4/Handcuff
Rhamondre Stevenson: Of course the week that I finally wave the white flag on Stevenson’s season, he has arguably his best game of the season with 13 touches and 129 total yards. Over the last two weeks, Stevenson has shown some life in his tackle breaking metrics with a 5.3% explosive run rate, a 21% missed tackles forced per attempt, and 5.74 yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson could keep the rebound going against a Colts’ run defense that has been middling since Week 5. Over their last five games, Indy has permitted the tenth-highest explosive run rate while also ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt and yards per carry allowed to gap runs (Stevenson 55.7% gap). Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR15 in fantasy, quietly ranking second in red zone targets among wide receivers. Pittman is only 20th in total touchdowns, so there has been some bad luck in the touchdown department. Pittman has had a 26.3% target share, a 29.6% air-yard share, 1.85 YPRR, and a 34.1% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Patriots have increased their rate of man coverage and rank second over that span (44.7%). Pittman has taken over the man coverage mantle from Downs, now leading the team with a 24% target share and a 26.1% first read share. Since Week 6, the Patriots have given up the fifth-highest PPR points per target to boundary wide receivers. Pittman will run about 70% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (58.3% catch rate and 88.5 passer rating) and Jack Jones (66.7% catch rate and 134.0 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2
Josh Downs: Downs (knee) hasn’t practiced all week, but he has been listed as questionable. I think he’s closer to doubtful. Since his Week 5 breakout, Downs has been the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 17.5% target share, a 23.8% air-yard share, 2.56 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share. All four of his red zone targets over his last five games came in Week 6. Downs will run about 82% of his routes against Myles Bryant (85.7% catch rate and 125.3 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR3
Demario Douglas: Since Week 7, Douglas has been a full-time starter for New England. Across his last three games, he has had a 78.4% route run rate, a 19.4% target share, 1.54 YPRR, and a team-leading 22.7% first-read share. Douglas has had three red zone targets since Week 7. Douglas will run about 63% of his routes against Kenny Moore (76.1% catch rate and 64.8 passer rating), who has been exceptional this season. Moore hasn’t allowed a touchdown in his coverage. Indy has held slot receivers to the seventh-lowest PPR points per target this season. Week 10 Positional Value: Volume-based WR3/4
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster surprisingly isn’t playable. Despite drawing seven targets last week, Smith-Schuster only managed a 34% route run rate. I’m not counting on a 44% target per route run rate to be replicated this week for a player that has been disappointing this season. Week 10 Positional Value: Sit
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: Henry has three TE1 weeks on his resume this season, including last week’s TE11 finish. Henry finished Week 9 with a 15.9% target share as he got into the end zone for the third time this season. Henry’s 88% snap share was his highest mark since Week 2. He is 14th in receiving grade and 26th in YPRR. The Colts have the second-highest rate of Cover 3 this season (50.3%, per Fantasy Points Data). Against Cover 3, Henry has seen a 14.3% target share and a 15.8% first-read share (each second on the team) with 1.88 YPRR. Henry could lead the team in targets this week. Indy has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 5, the Texans have gone back to a fast-paced attack with the 11th-best neutral pace. They have been run-balanced in this stretch, ranking 16th in neutral passing rate.
- The Bengals remain the poster team for the slow-and-throw club. Since Week 5, they have the third-slowest neutral pace while ranking fifth in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: After last week’s historic performance, Stroud is the QB5 in fantasy. Stroud has been a stone-cold baller since Week 3, ranking seventh in passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and eighth in hero throw rate. He faces a stout Cincy pass defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the tenth-lowest fantasy points per game passing and the ninth-lowest passer rating, but the Bengals are not without their warts. During this stretch, they have also given up the fourth-highest yards per attempt, which can be attributed to their problems defending the deep ball. Over their last four games, they have allowed the fifth-highest passer rating, the eighth-most deep passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest deep completion rate. I can’t wait to see Stroud go toe to toe with Joe Cool this week. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1
Joe Burrow: A fully healthy Burrow has been a beautiful thing to watch. Since Week 5, he has been on a tear as the QB4 in fantasy. In his last four games, he has been fourth in passing grade, first in passing touchdowns, and third in adjusted completion rate. The Texans’ pass defense has been evaporating. Since Week 5, they have allowed the second-highest passing yards per game and yards per attempt while giving up the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate. The reason for their struggle has been tied to woes with defending the deep ball. They have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate, and the seventh-highest deep passing yards per game. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce: Pierce has been ruled out.
Devin Singletary: With Pierce out again this week, Singletary will be the Texans’ everydown workhorse. Last week, he played 75% of the snaps with 15 touches, which he only turned into 26 total yards. Since Week 5 among 59 qualifying backs, Singletary has been 32nd in explosive run rate and ninth in missed tackles forced. Singletary is a “spinning top” back who can break tackles but lacks the extra juice to pick up a ton of yards after, but he could be helped by the Bengals allowing the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt since Week 5. This could allow Singletary to build up a head of steam and get downhill before impacting oncoming tacklers. Singletary could be a strong RB2 this week with 20 touch upside. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2/3
Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB19 in fantasy, ranking seventh in snap share, first in opportunity share, and tenth in weighted opportunity. He has averaged 18.8 touches and 81.1 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, Mixon ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Texans have clamped down against the run. Yes, I know Rachaad White scored twice last week, but that was two of the only three rushing touchdowns they have allowed over their last four games. Over their last four games, the Texans have allowed the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the second-lowest explosive run rate, and the fifth-lowest fantasy points via rushing. Week 10 Positional Value: Volume RB1/2
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: Collins has been ruled out.
Tank Dell: In Dell’s five full games this season, he leads Houston with a 20.1% target share and 33.5% air-yard share while also posting 2.47 YPRR with a 24.2% first-read share (second on the team). Dell has finished as a top-20 fantasy wideout in three of those five games (WR19, WR7, WR1). Since Week 5, Cincinnati has the 11th-highest rate of single-high (56.6%). Against single-high, Dell has crushed with a 26.0% target share, a 38.9% air-yard share, 2.67 YPRR, and a 29.7% first read share (leads the team). In his five full games, Dell leads the team with nine deep targets. Dell will match up with Cam Taylor-Britt (since Week 5: 47.6% catch rate and 47.0 passer rating), Chidobe Awuzie (since Week 5: 62.5% catch rate and 97.9 passer rating), and D.J. Turner (since Week 5: 69.2% catch rate and 122.3 passer rating) all day. While Taylor-Britt is a full-time player, Awuzie and Turner are splitting snaps at the other corner position. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2
Noah Brown: With Woods back this week and Nico Collins out, I think Brown stays in his customary slot role. In the last two weeks, he has seen a 15.2% target share and a 19.9% air-yard share with 4.12 YPRR, which is heavily fueled by his big game last week. Since Week 8, he has been fourth in first-read share (16.3%). Brown will run about 68% of his routes against Mike Hilton (66.7% catch rate and 77.0 passer rating). Since Week 5, the Bengals have given up the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: WR5
Robert Woods: In Weeks 1-6, Woods had a 19.6% target share, a 25.0% air-yard share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 21.7% first-read share. Woods has been the team’s primary slot receiver when Brown wasn’t in the lineup. This week, with Woods, Dell, and Brown as the Texans’ starting trio, Woods will run on the perimeter with Dell. In Week 1, with Brown and Nico Collins, Woods ran 77.8% of his routes from the perimeter. Woods has been one of Stroud’s go-to players in the red zone with seventh looks in his six games played. Woods will tangle with Cam Taylor-Britt (since Week 5: 47.6% catch rate and 47.0 passer rating), Chidobe Awuzie (since Week 5: 62.5% catch rate and 97.9 passer rating), and D.J. Turner (since Week 5: 69.2% catch rate and 122.3 passer rating) for most of the day. While Taylor-Britt is a full-time player, Awuzie and Turner are splitting snaps at the other corner position. Week 10 Positional Value: WR5
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase had limited practices on Thursday and Friday and has been listed as questionable. I expect him to play and be a full-go (back). Since Burrow has looked like Burrow (Week 5), Chase has been the WR1 overall in fantasy. In the three games this season in which Tee Higgins has played less than 55% of the snaps or been inactive, Chase has had a 36.0% target share, a 51.5% air-yard share, 2.88 YPRR, and a 43.8% first-read share. These are prime Davante Adams-level numbers (maybe better). Chase should gobble up targets this week against a secondary that, since Week 5, has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the tenth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers. Chase is second among wide receivers in red zone targets. Week 10 Positional Value: top-three WR
Tee Higgins: Higgins has been ruled out.
Trenton Irwin: In Week 5, with Higgins out, Irwin had a 68.6% route run rate, a 21.7% target share, and a 31.8% air-yard share. He finished with 1.71 YPRR and a 25.8% first-read share as the WR22 for the week. He also drew a red zone target. Irwin will start opposite Chase this week. If you’re searching for a flex play in deep leagues, Irwin could be your guy. Since Week 5, Houston has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the tenth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers. Week 10 Positional Value: Flex play with WR3 upside
Tyler Boyd: Boyd is the WR50 in fantasy with three weeks of WR3 or higher production this season. Boyd has had a 15.2% target share, a 17.2% air-yard share, 1.08 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Boyd has three red zone targets in his last four games. The Texans have kept slot receivers in check with the 12th-lowest PPR points per target allowed. Boyd will run about 88% of his routes against Tavierre Thomas (84.2% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE8 in fantasy, ranking fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, Schultz is 12th in target share (16.8%), tenth in YPRR (1.76), first in end zone targets (eight), and 14th in first-read share (16.6%). The Bengals have been a wonderful matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the third-highest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Saints continue to sprint weekly with a pass-happy offense. They are fourth in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
- The Vikings look to remain fast-paced as they were seventh in neutral pace last week, but the passing rate might tick down as they were also 17th in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: Carr has begun to find his footing in this offense with three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB9, QB10, QB11). Since Week 6, Carr has been 11th in passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. He faces a Minnesota pass defense that has been impressive the last few weeks. Since Week 5, they have operated with the seventh-highest rate of zone coverage (76.9%), allowing the 11th-lowest fantasy points per dropback. They have also given up the 12th-lowest yards per attempt and tenth-lowest passer rating. During this stretch, they have been only 22nd in pressure rate. They continue to lead the NFL in blitz rate (51.3%). Against the blitz, Carr ranks 20th in passing grade and 24th in adjusted completion rate with the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2
Josh Dobbs: Last week, with zero practice time with the team, Dobbs came off the bench to rank 17th in passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate among 28 qualifying quarterbacks. I will not take anything away from Dobbs because what he accomplished last week was not only improbable, but it was incredible despite his deeper metrics lagging. The 66 rushing yards and one score he rolled up on the ground definitely helped save his fantasy day, though. The Saints won’t be nearly as giving as the Falcons were, though. Since Week 5, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-lowest passer rating and yards per attempt while also boasting the lowest adjusted completion rate given up. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: Last week, Kamara’s unbelievable stranglehold on the snaps came to an end as he played only 49% of the snaps with 13 touches and 70 total yards. Now, looking back, maybe we should have seen this coming as his snaps have now declined in each of the last four weeks, with 58% of the snaps played in Week 8. Dennis Allen spoke about wanting to even out the snaps this week (Shoutout to the Coachspeek Index), so this is something we should expect moving forward. Over the last two weeks, Kamara has averaged 17 touches and 90 total yards. Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy, ranking fifth in weighted opportunities and 12th in red zone touches. He’s been a volume and snaps monster until the last two weeks. Maybe the team is seeing the same thing that Primer readers have been, which is that his efficiency has been lacking, and that’s putting it kindly. Among 45 qualifying backs, Kamara ranks dead last in yards after contact per attempt and 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Minnesota continues to shut down running backs on the ground with the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed since Week 5. The saving grace for backs in this stretch has been the 3.2% touchdown rate (13th) given up to backs. Unless Kamara runs hot with touchdowns this week, he likely will disappoint because he won’t be able to make up a ton of his production through the air against a defense that has given up the third-lowest yards per reception to backs. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
Alexander Mattison: With Cam Akers out for the rest of the season, Mattison could return to his early season workhorse role. Since Week 6 he has averaged 16.8 touches and 60 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 31st in explosive run rate and 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The Vikings can take advantage of a Saints run defense that has had issues since Week 5. Over their last five games New Orleans has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also ranking 14th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Mattison 66.4% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave: Olave is the WR29 in fantasy with a 25.1% target share, a 40.1% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. He leads all wide receivers in deep targets and has four red zone targets across his last three games. Since Week 5, the Vikings have utilized single-high looks on 53.8% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Olave has seen his target share bump to 30.2%, his air-yard share increase to 42.3%, and his YPRR bump to 2.52. Olave will run about 58% of his routes against Byron Murphy (66.7% catch rate and 104.4 passer rating) and Akayleb Evans (70.7% catch rate and 117.8 passer rating). When Carr has been blitzed, he has looked for Olave, as he leads the team in blitzed target share (28.6%). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2
Michael Thomas: Thomas is the WR53 in fantasy points per game with only two WR3 or higher weeks this season. Thomas has had a 17.7% target share, a 22.7% air-yard share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 23.0% first-read share. All of the data points to Thomas getting a bump in usage this week. Against single-high looks, his target share and first-read shares increased to 19.6% and 26%. Against the blitz, which Carr will experience all day, Thomas leads the team with a 32.4% first read share while also ranking second in target share with 25.5%. Thomas has been a trusted red zone weapon for Carr all year, as he is 19th among wide receivers in red zone targets. Thomas will run about 71% of his routes against Byron Murphy (66.7% catch rate and 104.4 passer rating) and Akayleb Evans (70.7% catch rate and 117.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside
Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed has been the team’s zone-beating specialist and deep threat. Shaheed has had a 12.1% target share, a 24.0% air-yard share, and 1.93 YPRR. Minnesota has been zone-heavy (76.9% since Week 5), so that helps Shaheed. The problem is they have defended the deep ball better lately. Since Week 5, they are 16th in yards per attempt with the third-lowest passer rating allowed on deep balls. Shaheed will run about 51% of his routes against Byron Murphy (66.7% catch rate and 104.4 passer rating) and Akayleb Evans (70.7% catch rate and 117.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR4
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has been ruled out.
Jordan Addison: Without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison has seen a 20.4% target share and a 35.6% air-yard share with 2.10 YPRR and a 24.5% first-read share. Addison has been a top-36 fantasy wideout in each game (WR32, WR1, WR13, WR29). He has seven red zone targets over his last four games. Addison has a tough road to walk this week against a secondary that has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers. Addison will run about 74% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (57.8% catch rate and 77.2 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (57.1% catch rate and 40.7 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR3
K.J. Osborn: Osborn has been ruled out.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: Hill has been an elite Swiss army knife. Since Week 6, he remains the TE2 in fantasy points per game behind only Travis Kelce. He has played at least 44% of the snaps weekly, averaging 78.1 total yards. Hill has scored at least 12 PPR points in each of his last four games, with his last two outings both eclipsing 20 PPR points. You can’t stop Taysom. You can only hope to contain him. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
T.J. Hockenson: With Jefferson sidelined, Hockenson has seen a 27.9% target share and a 31.0% air-yard share with 2.29 YPRR and a 30.4% first-read share. Hockenson has been seeing Travis Kelce-level usage. Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy, ranking 18th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Look for Hockenson to get fed volume again this week, but his production with said pass game looks is in question. The Saints have been a tough draw for tight ends, allowing the fourth-lowest receiving yards per game and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
CAR vs. CHI | IND vs. NE | HOU vs. CIN | NO vs. MIN | GB vs. PIT | TEN vs. TB | SF vs. JAC | CLE vs. BAL | ATL vs. ARI | DET vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | WAS vs. SEA | NYJ vs. LV | DEN vs. BUF
