Thanksgiving Day Fantasy Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice (Week 12)

In Week 12 of the Primer, I usually discuss my favorite Thanksgiving dishes, sides, desserts, etc. I could ramble on about how Mac N Cheese is a glorious must-have at every Thanksgiving table (yes, Kelly Kirby, it’s true), but this year, I’m switching it up.

This time of year, I think it’s incredibly important to take a second to remind ourselves what’s really important, what we are thankful for, and why. Again, I could take 10,000 words here at the top and tell you that I don’t know where I’d be if it weren’t for my amazing wife and my wonderful kids, which is all true, but I want to talk about my FantasyPros family.

This is a collection of amazing souls. People that have supported my work and supported me as a person. Late-night conversations imploring me to keep pushing in this industry when all I wanted to do was delete my social media accounts and disappear into the ether. Impromptu phone calls that last hours as we talk about life and all of its struggles. I could run through a billion stories displaying the friendship and kindness of my coworkers at FantasyPros. I will never be able to thank them enough for that, but it won’t stop me from trying.

All of the higher-ups at FantasyPros have forced me to take a step back from work when I’ve been ill or beleaguered. To rest. To focus on life and my family. They forced me to take a step back even when I fought them on it, kicking and screaming. That’s rare. Thank you.

When you find yourself in a workplace working your butt off alongside people that you consider not only to be your coworkers and friends but family, you stop and appreciate it because it is rare. It truly is rare. That’s how I have felt from my first day working at FantasyPros and how I still feel today.

Stop. Think of what you are thankful for and why. What means the most to you? Who is there for you when the chips are down? Who will pick you up when you don’t have the strength to?

Tell them today. Tomorrow isn’t promised. Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the Week 12 Primer.

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Thanksgiving Day Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -7.5, O/U 45.5
• Packers vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 6, the Packers have been 19th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
• Detroit continues to pick up the pace. Over their last five games, they have ranked sixth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 outings this season. The last time he squared off against the Lions, Love completed 63.9% of his passes with 6.8 yards per attempt as the QB12 for the week. Love has been a middle-of-the-road QB2 this season, and his play since Week 7 has done nothing to change that fact. Over his last five games, among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 6, the Lions pass defense has bottomed out, allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest passer rating. The one issue for Love is over that same span, Detroit has ranked eighth-best in time to pressure and 12th-best in pressure rate. Love has been an adventure against pressure. Since Week 7, he has improved some, ranking eighth in yards per attempt and seventh in passer rating against pressure, but his accuracy metrics still display his play-to-play struggles with pressure as he ranks 23rd in highly accurate throw rate and 22nd in hero throw rate. Love has a wide range of outcomes this week. He could be a strong QB1 if he can handle the pressure or a mid-range QB2 if not. Week 12 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 games this season. Goff would rank higher in fantasy, but he is only 11th in passing touchdowns, which has lowered his weekly floor as he has had a ton of touchdown production siphoned off by the ground game. Detroit ranks third in rushing touchdowns this season, behind only Baltimore and Miami. Since Week 7, Goff continues to operate at a high level, ranking 12th in yards per attempt and CPOE while sitting at seventh in adjusted completion rate. Green Bay has been a neutral pass-defense matchup. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 13th-highest passer rating while sitting at 16th in adjusted completion rate and CPOE. Goff should return solid QB2 numbers this week, as the Lions should have no problems running the rock, which will drain Goff’s ceiling. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

A.J. Dillon: With Aaron Jones dealing with a significant knee injury, Dillon will be the Packers’ lead back. Dillon has underwhelmed as Green Bay’s leading guy this season. Including last week, in the four games that Dillon has been the main running back, he has averaged 16.2 touches and 58.2 total yards. Dillon has lacked juice this entire season. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 43rd in explosive run rate and 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Detroit should have no problems shutting Dillon down. Since Week 6, they have yielded the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Dillon will operate as the team’s goal line back, and you’re praying he gets a touchdown this week. Week 12 Positional Value: Touchdown or bust RB3

Weeks 10-11

David Montgomery: Since his return from injury, Montgomery has averaged 39% of snaps played with 13 touches and 107 total yards. He has finished as the RB12 and RB13 over the last two weeks. Montgomery has lost the route and red zone battle to Jahmyr Gibbs over the last two weeks, but that doesn’t mean he has been a zero in either department. Montgomery remains one of the most explosive runners in the NFL this season, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should destroy a Packers’ run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs has been the leader of this backfield over the last two games, averaging 57% of the snaps played with 15.5 touches and 103.5 total yards per game. Gibbs has also had the edge in routes run (37 versus 15) and red zone opportunities (nine versus seven). Gibbs is now the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He has been an explosive play waiting to happen, ranking second in explosive run rate and sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt. Gibbs szn continues this week against a porous Packers’ run defense. Since Week 6, Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. If Gibbs doesn’t get it done on the ground, he can through the air. Since Week 7, he has had a 15.8% target share, which has ranked third on the team behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: Since Week 5, Watson has led the team with a 15.8% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, and a 20.1% first-read share, but the usage has begun to turn sour. Last week, Watson was fifth in target share (10.0%) and first-read share (14.3%) for the Packers. Watson still owned the end zone role with a team-leading two end zone targets. Since Week 5, he has led the team with ten end zone targets (one touchdown). Watson has been turned into a downfield-only weapon over his last six games with a 17.8 aDOT. That doesn’t bode well for Watson this week. Since Week 6, the Lions have shut down deep passing with the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and sixth-lowest CPOE allowed to deep shots. Watson will run about 66% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (62.5% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (61.5% catch rate and 90.9 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR4

Jayden Reed: Reed is coming off a season-high 69% snap rate, seeing a 15.0% target share and 17.9% first-read share (second on the team). Since Week 6, Detroit has utilized zone coverage on 69.6% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, Reed against zone has had a 13.3% target share (second on the team), 2.52 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share (second on the team). Reed has seen plenty of high-leverage usage this season, ranking 12th in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Reed will run about 78% of his routes against Brian Branch (75% catch rate and 113.2 passer rating), who slot receivers have eaten up. Detroit has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the third-most PPR points per target to slot receivers this season. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Romeo Doubs: Doubs has seemingly taken over the WR1 role in Green Bay. Since Week 8, he leads the team with a 15.6% target share while also kicking in a 26.5% air-yard share, and an 18.9% first-read share. Since Week 6, Detroit has utilized zone coverage on 69.6% of their defensive snaps. Over his last four games against zone, his air-yard share has increased to 31.7%. Doubs has been on a touchdown hot streak with four scores over his last five games. Doubs ranks sixth among all pass catchers in red zone targets this season immediately behind Tyreek Hill. Doubs will run about 85% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (62.5% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (61.5% catch rate and 90.9 passer rating). Since Week 6, Detroit has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3/4

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown ranks seventh in target share (28.5%) and YPRR (2.91) while also seeing a 35.7% first-read share (eighth-best). St. Brown is the WR6 in fantasy points per game while also ranking 10th in targets inside the 10-yard line. St. Brown has been ultra-consistent this season, with at least 71 receiving yards in every game this season except for one. He has at least 100 receiving yards in 67% of his games this season. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (63.4%). Against single high, St. Brown’s YPRR has slightly increased to 3.04. St. Brown will run about 55% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (79.6% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating). Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Jameson Williams: Williams has seen his snap share increase in each of his last three games, with a career-high 65% mark last week. This could be the eruption game that we’ve been waiting for all season for Williams. Green Bay has allowed the eighth-highest passer rating and the fourth-highest depth-adjusted completion rate on deep balls this season. Since Week 7, Williams has led the team with five deep targets, which account for 62.5% of the team’s deep shots. Other data points line up in Williams’ favor this week. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (63.4%). Since Week 7 against single-high, Williams is second on the team with a 25.9% air-yard share and a team-high 15.4 aDOT. Over his last four games against single-high, he has an 11.1% target share and 10.8% first read share, which aren’t amazing numbers, but if you’re considering Williams this week as a flex, it’s not because of volume. It’s because when he does see targets, they will be downfield. Week 12 Positional Value: High upside flex

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave is dealing with an abdominal injury and hasn’t practiced this week. I doubt he will play this week, especially considering the short week.

Tucker Kraft: Tucker Kraft will likely be the team’s starting tight end this week. Over the last two weeks, the talented rookie has had a 29.9% route run rate, a 5.0% target share, and a 15% target per route run rate with 1.46 YPRR. If you’re looking for a dart-throw TE that could sneak into TE1 territory this week, it’s Kraft. Detroit has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

Sam LaPorta: Ballgame has had two down games in a row, but this week’s matchup offers bounceback potential. Ballgame is the TE5 in fantasy, ranking second on the Lions in red zone targets. Among 33 qualifying tight ends, Ballgame is seventh in target share (19.1%), seventh in YPRR (1.80), and 11th in first-read share (19.7%). Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (63.4%). Among 46 qualifying tight ends, LaPorta ranks sixth in target share (20.9%), third in YPRR (2.40), sixth in first-read share (23.5%), and third in fantasy points per route run (0.60) against single-high. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -11, O/U 48.5
• Commanders vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Across their last six games, the Commanders have ranked 13th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.
• Dallas continues to push the pedal to the metal with pace and passing rates. Since Week 6, they have been fifth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Howell had one of his worst games in recent memory in Week 11, and he still finished as QB10 in fantasy for the week. Howell remains a passing volume monster, ranking first in passing attempts, passing yards, and air yards. Howell remains the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Howell has played better as the season has moved along, and he currently stands seventh in adjusted completion rate and ninth in highly accurate throw rate. Howell has a tough road to walk this week against Dallas. Since Week 6, the Cowboys have allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns, but everything else in their statistical locker says to stay away. Over that span, they have given up the lowest yards per attempt and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate while also ranking fourth in pressure rate and first in time to pressure. Howell has navigated pressure well this season. His ability to deal with muddy pockets will define his week. Howell is 13th in yards per attempt, second in adjusted completion rate, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate when pressured. Week 12 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Dak Prescott: Prescott’s hot streak as a weekly top-three fantasy option was snapped last week as he finished as the QB17. Since Week 6, his numbers still leap off the page as he ranks fourth in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and first in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 6, Washington has remained putrid at defending the pass, allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game and the most passing touchdowns while also giving up the fourth-highest passer rating. Deep passing has been their enemy. In that same timeframe, they have yielded the third-most deep passing touchdowns and the eighth-highest deep passer rating. Cook Prescott. Cook. Cook the Commanders in Week 12. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: Without Gibson last week, Robinson played a season-high 78% of the snaps with 24 touches and 131 total yards. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 7.5 targets and 88.5 yards through the air. Robinson has surprised me in the efficiency categories, ranking 16th in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. The matchup for Robinson this week is tough, but there’s a sliver of hope here. Since Week 6, the Cowboys have allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt while also bolstering the eighth-highest stuff rate. None of this inspires confidence for Robinson, but in this same timeframe, Dallas has also ranked 17th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Robinson 65.9% zone) and has given up the 11th-highest success rate to zone runs. Since Week 8, the Commanders’ offensive line has been run blocking better, with the 11th-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt. In this same span, Dallas has permitted the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Robinson could surprise in Week 12. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Antonio Gibson: Gibson opened this week with a limited practice (toe) after missing last week’s game. Even if Gibson gives it a go this week which is unlikely on the short week, he’s a must sit. Gibson’s upside resides in the passing game, but Dallas has shut down receiving backs giving up the tenth-fewest receptions per game and receiving yards per game to backs. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Tony Pollard: Don’t look now! Pollard’s tackle-breaking is BACK! Since Week 9 among 47 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks third in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. In his last three games, he has averaged 15.3 touches and 66 total yards. Pollard ranks eighth in snap share, 15th in opportunity share, and eighth in weighted opportunities this season. Finally, the Cowboys have switched up their run game scheme, with Pollard back to rocking 61.5% of his rushing attempts on zone runs. Sadly, this won’t help him this week. Since Week 6, Washington has held backs in check, allowing the sixth-lowest explosive run rate while logging the second-highest stuff rate. Their splits in defending zone versus gap runs have been massive. Against zone, they have ranked 15th in yards per carry with the fifth-lowest success rate allowed. Versus gap runs over their last six games, Washington has allowed the sixth-highest yards per carry (4.84). Overall, this season, Pollard has handled 57.8% of his carries on gap runs, so it’s possible Dallas switches things back up this week to account for the matchup, but we’ll see. Pollard is still a safe bet for 15-plus touches this week. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR32 in fantasy, ranking 12th in deep targets. The issue for McLaurin has been touchdown equity. While he has spiked three scores this season, he only has six red zone targets, all of which came in only two games. McLaurin has an 18.8% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, Dallas has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (64.7%). Against single-high, McLaurin has seen his target share balloon to 20.1%, his air-yard share climb to 33.8%, and his YPRR jump to 1.94 with a 25.8% first-read share. McLaurin has a horrible matchup this week, but Howell will lean on him, especially under duress. McLaurin’s first-read share is 29.2% when Howell has been pressured this season. McLaurin will run about 84% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (53.2% catch rate and 83.0 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (46.8% catch rate and 29.1 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Curtis Samuel: Samuel’s snap counts look off the last two weeks as he was dealing with a toe issue in Week 10 and then ejected from last week’s game due to a sideline scuffle. In Weeks 1-7, as a full-time player, he had a 15.2% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and an 18.9% first-read share. Since Week 6, Dallas has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (64.7%). In those first seven games against single-high, Samuel’s target share and YPRR dropped to 13.7% and 1.39, while his first-read share sat at 17.2%. The big plus for Samuel this week is that slot corner Jourdan Lewis (71.4% catch rate and 136.5 passer rating) has been the weak link of the Dallas secondary. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR3 upside

Jahan Dotson: In Weeks 1-7 with Samuel at full steam, Dotson had a 14.1% target share, a 17.8% air-yard share, 0.71 YPRR, and a 17.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, Dallas has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (64.7%). Against single-high, Dotson saw his target share increase to 15.3% and his first-read share bump to 18.4% (second on the team) in that span. Dotson will run about 57% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (53.2% catch rate and 83.0 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (46.8% catch rate and 29.1 passer rating). With Samuel in and out of the lineup since Week 8, Dotson has seen 48% of his target volume from the slot (Weeks 1-7 35.7%). I expect Washington to move Dotson inside some this game to get him lined up against Jourdan Lewis (71.4% catch rate and 136.5 passer rating). Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Add in that Dotson has seen more usage against single-high and man coverage than Samuel, and Dotson has sneaky upside this week. Dotson has had the same red zone issues as McLaurin this season, with only seven red zone looks that have all come in three games (none in three of his last four games). Week 12 Positional Value: WR4 with WR3 upside

CeeDee Lamb: Last week’s letdown snapped a four-game streak, with Lamb recording at least seven grabs and 117 receiving yards. Since Week 6, Lamb has had a 30.6% target share, a 39.6% air-yard share, 3.41 YPRR, and a 33.8% first-read share. Lamb is the WR4 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and ninth in red zone looks. If Prescott is attacking the Washington secondary deep, Lamb will be his go-to. Since Week 6, Lamb has led the team with a whopping 14 deep targets. Washington has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Since Week 6, Cooks has had a 72.7% route run rate, a 12.4% target share, a 16.9% air-yard share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 14.5% first-read share (second on the team). During that span, he has ranked second on the team in deep targets with four. Since Week 6, the Commanders have utilized man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (35.8%). Over his last five games, Cooks has a 15.8% target share, 2.72 YPRR, and 17.4% first-read share against man coverage. Washington has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers this season. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE14 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking ninth in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. Thomas has managed four TE1 fantasy weekly finishes. Among 45 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 18th in target share (14.0%), 25th in YPRR (1.22), and second in end zone targets (seven). Dallas ranks 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but they have also allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception to the position. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. If Thomas spikes a touchdown this week, he will finish as a TE1. Week 12 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE10 in fantasy this season, leading all tight ends in red zone targets. Among 45 qualifying tight ends, Ferguson ranks 17th in target share (14.8%), 21st in YPRR (1.41), and 15th in first-read share (16.1%). Since Week 6, the Commanders have utilized man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (35.8%). Against man coverage, Ferguson has seen his target share increase to 17.9% with 1.60 YPRR and a 17.0% first-read share. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game, the seventh-most fantasy points per game, and the second-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE1

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SF -7, O/U 43
• 49ers vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The 49ers have been changing things up recently. Since Week 7, while they remain dead last in neutral pace, they have also ranked 13th in neutral passing rate. Let Brock rock!
• Since Week 6, Seattle has ranked seventh in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: Purdy is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in passing yards and seventh in passing touchdowns, with QB1 weeks in each of his last three games. Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and 12th in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 6, the Seahawks have allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns, but the rest of their pass defense metrics have been strong. They have kept quarterbacks in check with the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the fifth-lowest CPOE over their last five games. Purdy has earned my trust at this point to recommend him as a start despite the tough matchup. Week 12 Positional Value: QB1

Geno Smith: Smith’s Week 12 status is up in the air, but I expect him to play through a triceps contusion, which is just a fancy way to say he has a triceps bruise. I continue to support Chef Geno weekly, who is playing better football than he is given credit for. His ranking of 16th in passing touchdowns has kept his fantasy production down, but his deeper metrics scream that he has played as a borderline QB1 this season. Smith ranks 13th in yards per attempt, seventh in hero throw rate, and 14th in CPOE. Since Week 6, the 49ers have had some cracks in the foundation of their pass defense, allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game and ninth-highest adjusted completion rate. In that same timeframe, they have given up the sixth-highest passer rating and the 11th-most yards per attempt to deep passes. Smith could flirt with QB1 production this week, but it’s better to view him as a strong QB2. Week 12 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey remains the RB1 in fantasy, ranking second in snap share, sixth in opportunity share, and second in weighted opportunities. McCaffrey continues to soak up volume like a sponge, ranking second in carries and targets and first in red zone touches. McCaffrey hasn’t slowed down as the season has moved along, still ranking 13th in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey has averaged 21.7 touches and 118.9 total yards. McCaffrey should destroy Seattle’s now pedestrian run defense. Since Week 6 (excluding the debacle against Baltimore), Seattle still has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles per attempt while also ranking 14th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet takes over as Seattle’s bell-cow with Kenneth Walker out. Last week, he played 85% of the snaps with 21 touches and 69 total yards. Last week, he was fourth in route run rate behind only Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Devon Singletary. He also had a 15.0% target share. Charbonnet has been excellent with his volume so far this season, ranking 10th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 6, the 49ers’ run defense has been in shambles, giving up the third-highest explosive run rate and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt while also ranking 14th in missed tackles allowed per attempt. Even if we zoom in further since the addition of Chase Young, over the last two games, San Francisco’s 5.7% explosive run rate and 2.51 yards after contact per attempt allowed would rank 10th-most and 14th-most since Week 6. Charbonnet is a plug-and-play RB1. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Weeks 1-5, 11 (per Fantasy Points Data) Overall

Weeks 1-5, 11 (per Fantasy Points Data) vs. Single High

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk has been stellar this season as the WR12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in deep targets. Aiyuk has had a 25.3% target share, a 46.2% air-yard share, 3.73 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. In the six games this season in which Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle have been active, Aiyuk has had a 26.4% target share, a 48.4% air-yard share, 4.56 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share. In that span of games, each of those metrics leads the 49ers’ receiving room. Since Week 8, Seattle has had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). Against single-high in that six-game sample, Aiyuk saw his numbers increase in target share (28.0%), air-yard share (49.8%), and YPRR (4.77). Aiyuk will run about 79% of his routes against Tre Brown (61.3% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (61.4% catch rate and 82.7 passer rating). Again, the only flaw in his profile this season has been the lack of red zone usage. Since Week 4, he has only one red zone target. Since Week 6, Seattle has been a lockdown unit against deep passing, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 20% of their deep attempts with an 8.9 deep passer rating. Week 12 Positional Value: WR2

Deebo Samuel: In Samuel’s six full games this season, he has commanded a 21.0% target share, a 23.0% air-yard share, and a 23.2% first-read share with 2.35 YPRR. Since Week 8, Seattle has had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). Against single-high in that six-game sample, Samuel’s numbers have tanked with a 16.1% target share, 20.1% air-yard share, 1.09 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. Samuel will run about 60% of his routes against Tre Brown (61.3% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (61.4% catch rate and 82.7 passer rating). This doesn’t set up as a boom game for Samuel. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Weeks 8-11 (per Fantasy Points Data) Overall

Weeks 8-11 (per Fantasy Points Data) vs. Single High

D.K. Metcalf: Since Week 8, Metcalf has had a 23.7% target share, a 47.3% air-yard share, 2.34 YPRR, and a 32.0% first-read share. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 56.4% of their defensive snaps. Metcalf has dominated single-high all season. Over his last four games against single-high, he has a 28.0% target share, a 52.6% air-yard share, 2.78 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. Metcalf is the WR22 in fantasy, ranking 16th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among receivers. Metcalf will run about 63% of his routes against Ambry Thomas (70.8% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating). Metcalf will destroy Thomas and this secondary this week. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Tyler Lockett: Since Week 8, Lockett has had a 21.1% target share, a 32.4% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 23.7% first-read share. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 56.4% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Lockett has seen his numbers slightly dip, with his target share falling to 20.4%, his air-yard share declining to 23.6%, his YPRR decreasing to 1.89, and his first-read share sitting at 19.3%. Lockett is the WR28 in fantasy, ranking 13th in red zone targets but only 29th in deep targets. Lockett will run about 80% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (72.3% catch rate and 84.6 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (58.3% catch rate and 75.8 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has finished as a WR3 or better in two of his last three games (WR23, WR34). Since Week 8, he has had a 14.5% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 56.4% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Smith-Njigba’s YPRR has jumped to 1.97 and his first-read share has increased to 19.3%. Smith-Njigba could see a volume bump this week, but his chances of scoring a touchdown aren’t great. He has only one red zone target over his five games. Smith-Njigba will run about 72% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (72.3% catch rate and 84.6 passer rating). Week 12 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle has been crushing. He has climbed to TE3 for the season with at least 20.6 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Kittle is poised to continue the hot streak against the Seahawks. In his last six games with Aiyuk and Samuel in the lineup, Kittle has had a 19.1% target share, 2.16 YPRR, and a 21.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, Seattle has had the 11th-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). Against single-high, Kittle has seen his number bump up with a 21.5% target share, 2.42 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. Kittle leads all tight ends in deep targets while also ranking ninth in red zone targets. Kittle should destroy Seattle, who, since Week 5, have allowed the eighth-most receptions per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: Top-Five TE

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*