Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Seahawks vs. Cowboys.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
- DAL -8.5, O/U 47
- Seahawks vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 6, Dallas has ranked fourth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate. Go, Mike McCarthy. Go!
- Across their last seven games, Seattle has been eighth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith: If you are a late-round quarterback proponent in fantasy draft seasons, you likely drafted Smith on some teams. That either led you to drop Smith or to roster him for longer than necessary, expecting him to bounce back to 2022 Chef Geno levels. While Smith has been a major disappointment in fantasy as the QB24 in fantasy points per game, he has not been playing at that basement level all season. He has only one QB1-worthy fantasy showing since Week 3, which came against Washington, so there’s even a caveat with that week. Since Week 6, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 27th in fantasy points per dropback, 23rd in passer rating, and 25th in highly accurate throw rate with the 13th-highest off-target throw rate. Not all of this has been Smith’s fault, as he’s faced the eighth-highest pressure rate over that span. Don’t expect Smith to bounce back this week against a Cowboys’ pass defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE. Across their last five games, Dallas is also fourth in pressure rate and third-best in pressure rate over expectation. Smith will be under duress all day. Week 13 Positional Value: QB2
Tell me Mike McCarthy hasn't been in his bag
(per @FantasyPtsData)Since Week 6 DAL is 4th in dropbacks with pre snap or during the snap motion behind only LAC, MIA, & KC. pic.twitter.com/IU1cgX1vfr
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 28, 2023
Dak Prescott: Since Week 6, Prescott has finished lower than QB3 in weekly fantasy scoring only once (QB17). Over his last six games, he has played at an MVP level, ranking second in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. Seattle will be a good litmus test for Prescott. Since Week 7, they have allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and the fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate while ranking 18th in fantasy points allowed via passing. Over their last six games, Seattle has also ranked ninth in pressure rate and sixth in quarterback pressures. Prescott should be considered a mid-level QB1 this week. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1
Running Backs
Seahawks are listing RB Kenneth Walker III as doubtful for Thursday’s game vs. Dallas due to his oblique injury.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 29, 2023
Kenneth Walker: Walker has not practiced this week. I would be shocked if he was back in Week 13 with a short week of preparation. He has been listed as doubtful.
Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet has played at least 85% of the snaps in each game over the last two weeks while averaging 19.5 touches and 63.5 total yards. Charbonnet has averaged five targets per game over the last three weeks. Among 54 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks 24th in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Dallas has allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate while ranking in the middle of the road in yards after contact per attempt (14th) and yards per carry to zone runs (16th) allowed. 68.7% of Charbonnet’s runs have been on zone plays. Charbonnet is a volume-based RB2. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2
Tony Pollard since Week 8
among 32 RBs per @FantasyPtsData
3rd in explosive run rate ✅
10th in MTF/attempt ✅
5th in yards after contact/attempt ✅ pic.twitter.com/G53hnr0pWb— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 28, 2023
Tony Pollard: Pollard is BACK BABY! Since Week 8, he has been among the league’s best tackle breakers, averaging 15.6 touches and 71.2 total yards. Since Week 8, among 32 qualifying backs, he ranks third in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard could post his best stat line of the season this week against a downtrodden Seattle run defense. Since Week 7, this run defense has been in shambles, allowing the third-highest explosive run rate, the second-most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards after contact per attempt. Dallas should lean on their ground game this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1
Rico Dowdle: Dowdle enters the low-end flex conversation this week with the matchup for the ground game. Dowdle hasn’t seen a ton of work this season, averaging 6.2 touches and 28.7 total yards per game, but he has had at least ten touches in two of his last three games with Dallas blowing opponents out, which could happen again versus Seattle. Dowdle has flashed some juice with the ball, ranking seventh in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 50 carries). Since Week 7, Seattle has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the second-most missed tackles per attempt, and the highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: Low-end flex
Wide Receivers
D.K. Metcalf: Since Week 8, Metcalf has remained the leader of this passing attack with a 25.1% target share, a 48.7% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 33.9% first-read share. He also leads the team with seven end zone targets during the last five games. Since Week 7, Dallas has had the second-highest rate of single-high (68.9%) in the NFL. Since Week 8 against single-high, Metcalf has had a 28.2% target share, a 54.9% air-yard share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 39.1% first-read share. Metcalf will be leaned on this week, but it’s fair to question how much success he will have. Since Week 7, Dallas has held perimeter wide receivers to the second-lowest PPR points per target. Metcalf will run about 63% of his routes against Dallas’s top baller, DaRon Bland (52.5% catch rate and 36.9 passer rating). Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3
Tyler Lockett: Lockett is the WR29 in fantasy with only four games where he has landed inside the top-24 wide receivers in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 7, Dallas has had the second-highest rate of single-high (68.9%) in the NFL. Since Week 8 against single-high, Lockett has had a 19.1% target share, a 21.4% air-yard share, 1.61 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share (third on the team). Lockett will run about half of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (50% catch rate and 76.3 passer rating). Gilmore remains one of the best corners in the NFL. Keep your Lockett hopes in check for Week 13. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4
#Seahawks coach Pete Carroll on Jaxon Smith-Njigba:
“We have unique talents and we gotta make sure that we’re maximizing that, and I feel like we’re not. I feel like we’re not seeing stuff. You saw the playmaking of Jaxon again last night, and he continues to show stuff that… pic.twitter.com/cwGNSlvoPN
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 25, 2023
Calling it…
This is the week Jaxon Smith-Njigba BREAKS OUT
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 27, 2023
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: I expect Smith-Njigba to be a focal point of the passing attack this week. Smith-Njigba has not managed more than seven targets in a game all season. I expect that to change this week. Since Week 7, Dallas has had the second-highest rate of single-high (68.9%) in the NFL. Since Week 8 against single-high, Smith-Njigba has had a 14.5% target share with a healthy aDOT of 9.4, 2.04 YPRR, and a 20.3% first read share (second on the team). Where you attack this Dallas secondary is the slot. Smith-Njigba will run about 72% of his routes against Jourdan Lewis (73.7% catch rate and 127.2 passer rating). Among 35 qualifying slot corners, Lewis ranks 34th in passer rating when targeted and 29th in yards per coverage snap. Smith-Njigba could lead Seattle in receiving production this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3
CeeDee Lamb: Since the Cowboys decided to commit to Lamb as the engine of the offense (Week 6), he has had a 29.8% target share, a 38.5% air-yard share, 3.17 YPRR, and a 34.8% first-read share. Since Week 7, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (83.7%). Across his last six games against zone coverage, Lamb has handled a 26.8% target share, a 32.4% air-yard share, and a 31.7% first-read share with 2.59 YPRR. His numbers have taken a hit, but these are still strong metrics against zone. The biggest worry for Lamb this week is matching up (54.3% slot) in the slot with Devon Witherspoon (50.9% catch rate and 75.6 passer rating). Since Witherspoon took over as the team’s primary nickel corner, Seattle has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: low-end WR1
Brandin Cooks: Cooks has found a second wind since Week 6 with receiving touchdowns in four of six games and two outings with at least 72 receiving yards. Since Week 7, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (83.7%). Since Week 6, Cook has had an 11.3% target share, 1.64 YPRR, and an 11.9% first read share against zone. Cooks will run about 58% of his routes on the boundary. Since Week 6, Seattle has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson: Ferguson should be Prescott’s best friend in Week 13. Since Week 7, Seattle has utilized zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (83.7%). Since Week 6, against zone coverage, Ferguson has had a 14.1% target share (second on the team) with 1.52 YPRR and a 16.8% first read share. Ferguson is second in the NFL in red zone targets, behind only Davante Adams. Seattle has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the 10th-most receptions per game to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
