It is the time of year to reflect and be thankful. I am thankful for the family, friends, peers, and people that read this weekly NFL DFS article. I am thankful for the points and lineups we have been able to put together by finding good value plays every week. And I am thankful for another 10-game slate of Thanksgiving weekend DFS topped with a heaping helping of potential fantasy points.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Shake off the turkey tiredness, and let’s get into it.
NFL Week 12 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
This is not as gross as it sounds. Through 10 weeks, Carr has finished as the QB15 or better in six, including three inside the top twelve. He averaged 20.2 DK points per game in his last four complete games. Complete being the operative word, since he exited his last game with a shoulder injury and a concussion. However, he had the remainder of that week and the subsequent bye week to recover and should be in good shape to play well despite the questionable tag he’s been carrying.
The Falcons allow the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In week eight, they allowed untested rookie Will Levis to drop four touchdowns on only 19 completions. In week nine, Joshua Dobbs barely had a uniform, did not know his teammates names and still managed two passing and one rushing score. In week 10, Kyler Murray returned and, despite any rust from a near calendar year of action, managed 249 passing yards and a rushing score.
Carr will be minus Michael Thomas, which is more a ball distribution problem than a problem to move the offense. With his weapons and sub-par secondary, Carr becomes intriguing as a low-rostered GPP play for this slate.
FanDuel is still below salary on Stroud, in one DFS analyst’s humble opinion. His 19.64 FD points per game average is the fifth-highest among quarterbacks on this slate, while his salary is the sixth-highest. Trevor Lawrence is $100 more expensive than Stroud despite far more reliable output from Stroud. Granted, the difference is not that huge in terms of cost, but for GPP contests, every little edge helps.
Stroud is averaging 296 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns per game this season. The last time these two teams met, Stroud hung 280 yards and two scores against them. The Jaguars allow the fourth-most FD points to quarterbacks, and Stroud is coming off of three straight games of over 300 passing yards. In those games, he has thrown eight touchdown passes to four interceptions. The interceptions have been a rarity for the rookie.
This game should be fun and lucrative for fantasy managers in a game that could feature some back-and-forth exploitation of each team’s defensive units. Stroud has appeal in both cash and GPP contests this week and is in the QB1-range conversation.
Running Backs
It has not been a pretty pair of outings for King Henry. Over his last two outings, he has seen 11 and 10 carries for 24 and 38 scoreless yards, respectively. While the offense as a whole has struggled this season, Henry should be a focal point of the plan, especially in a matchup where they are they are currently favored by 3.5 points.
Henry is the type of back who wears defenses down and in this game, he should be involved early and often and then operate as closer in the fourth quarter. Even on the cusp of 30 years old, he maintains a 4.2 yards per carry average and has 24 targets on the season.
The Panthers have transitioned to Christmas mode and have been very generous with giving up yards and fantasy points to opposing running backs. They are currently allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. Four different running backs have scored twice in the same game against them this season.
Henry’s struggles have resulted in a lower-than-normal salary, and this is the perfect game to take advantage of that discount. Henry should be heavily featured and can be used in both cash and GPP contests. For those who utilize multiple lineups, Tyjae Spears ($4400) is a high-upside but riskier pick for this matchup.
In half-point PPR scoring, White is currently the RB11 and averaging 12.98 points per game. He is tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the third-most receptions (41) among running backs and has five touchdowns. His consistent usage in the receiving aspect of the game renders him far less game-script-dependent than other running backs. He has finished with 14 or more FD points in four of the last five games.
The Colts are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. They allow an average of 99.1 rushing yards, 1.1 rushing touchdowns, and 38.9 receiving yards to the position. This defense has also allowed 12 total touchdowns to running backs this season.
It is a solid matchup for White to continue to build on his recent success. At his current salary, White profiles as a moderate return on the investment. He typically is not going be a week-winning type of back, but he offers an enticing floor as a dual-threat back. He is a play primarily for cash contests.
Wide Receivers
At the conclusion of week 11, Pittman had the same number of targets (98) as Amon-Ra St. Brown. Granted, St. Brown missed a week, but the 98 targets are still tied for eighth-most among wide receivers, and Pittman has done it very quietly. He averages a respectable 10.3 yards per target and has three touchdowns on the season. His 15.7 DK points per game is the ninth-best on this slate for a receiver.
The Buccaneers are being gashed by wide receivers this season. Overall, they allow the third-most fantasy points and 198.9 receiving yards to the position. Seven different receivers have cleared the 100-yard mark, and ten have scored against them this season.
Pittman represents a consistent floor play with the hope of an upside touchdown. He only has two games this season in which he has finished a WR1. He is a tidy play in cash contests. His upside is below some of the other options in his salary range, so he seems safer in cash than GPP contests.
At the time of this writing, we still are not sure who will be under center for the Patriots and how long of a leash that signal-caller has. However, Douglas’ role did not diminish when Bailey Zappe came in on relief for Mac Jones. Since week seven, Douglas has maintained just over a 21% target share and 7.2 targets per game. He is averaging 8.8 FD points in that stretch. The only separating Douglas from WR2 range scoring is touchdowns, which the usage would suggest are on their way.
The Giants can be manhandled through the air. They allow the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers, including 11 receiving touchdowns through just as many games.
Douglas is a floor play with potential scoring upside in a plus matchup. He is not a recommended cash contest player. He can be used in GPP contests and would be best utilized as the one-off player in multiple lineups.
Tight Ends
McBride is working himself into a trusted full-time role in this offense with Kyler Murray still shaking some rust off. The two are catching stride together and more big games are coming for the pair. Since week six, McBride has seen five or more targets in each game, with one hitting double-digits. He has averaged 72.7 receiving yards over the last four games and has scored once in that span.
The Rams allow the sixth-most fantasy points to big guys. Five tight ends have scored touchdowns against their secondary.
As Murray shapes more into form and continues to build chemistry with McBride, the pair have more big games coming. There are a few really good tight end plays this week, and I’ll want McBride in a few different lineups between cost, ceiling, and matchup. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson drew his second start in week 11 and promptly targeted Njoku 15 times. Granted, it only led to 56 scoreless yards, but it showed DTR’s target comfort level. Short to intermediate routes and across the middle of the field, an area in which Njoku is familiar. He has finished with 50 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games.
The Broncos allow the most fantasy points to tight ends. They allow an average of 72.2 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. Over their last two games, they allowed 153 receiving yards and two touchdowns to tight ends.
Plenty of players will spend their salary elsewhere this week based on concerns about DTR possibly limiting Njoku’s ceiling. However, Njoku is covering the safety blanket part of the field for a rookie with limited time with the first-team offense. Njoku will see a healthy amount of targets against a team that has not shown the ability to cover the position. He is a GPP contest value pick at the position this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
