Is it just me, or is this season absolutely flying by? We are into week 10, and four more teams are taking their bye this week. We have another game in Germany for those who like to get up early and have some coffee with their football. That brings us to another 10-game slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 10 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (DET) $6400 vs. LAC (DraftKings)
Jared Goff has the 8th-highest fantasy points per game (18.7) among quarterbacks featured on this slate. He has failed to throw at least one touchdown pass in only one game this season but has thrown for two or more in three of eight games. He also has the eighth-most passing yards (2,174) among all quarterbacks this season.
Coming out of their bye week, the Lions travel to Los Angeles, a city Goff is all too familiar with. If there is any stadium in which Goff’s home/road splits should not matter, it is SoFi Stadium. The Chargers are allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Per the time of this writing, this game has the highest over/under (48.5) on this slate. Between the suggested point total, the familiarity with the stadium, and a favorable matchup, Goff is a very good play this week.
Taylor Heinicke (ATL) $7000 vs. ARI (FanDuel)
Drawing his first start of the 2023 season, Heinicke completed 21 passes for 268 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while tacking on 20 rushing yards. As expected, Heinicke played the role of gunslinger under center and managed a respectable 15.7 fantasy points despite missing Drake London, who could return for this game.
The Cardinals allow the ninth-most fantasy points, including the ninth-most passing yards (2,193) and the sixth-most passing touchdowns (14) to quarterbacks this season. If the return of Kyler Murrays sparks some Cardinals’ scoring, Heinicke could be dialed up for another 35-plus pass attempt game.
Over the last few seasons, Heinicke has had his ups and downs from the pocket. He knows he is short-leashed and playing his opportunity to start again next week. Expect him to come out sharp and smartly execute the offense against a beatable matchup.
Heinicke is best utilized in GPP contests and can be reasonably stacked with a couple of different players in this game.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (DAL) $7300 vs. NYG (DraftKings)
If we’re being honest, Pollard has largely disappointed fantasy football players this season. After an RB8 overall finish (PPR) last season, he is the current RB18 and has not found the endzone since week one, which we will circle back to momentarily. Despite the frustrating reduction in production, Pollard is still averaging a healthy 15 rush attempts, 4.3 targets, and 83 scrimmage yards per contest.
Pollard scored both of his rushing touchdowns against these same Giants in week one. They have allowed the third-most rushing yards (985) and rushing touchdowns (10) to opposing running backs this season. Nothing is imposing about this matchup, and Pollard could see some additional carries with the Cowboys expected to maintain a lead throughout this game.
Good matchup? Check. Consistent volume? Check. Touchdown upside? Check. At cost, this should be a good bounce-back kind of game for Pollard. He may end up a little chalkier than in previous weeks, making him a better cash game fit.
Joe Mixon (CIN) $7700 vs. HOU (FanDuel)
Over the last two games, Mixon has had 30 rush attempts, 124 rushing yards, and two touchdowns while adding 54 receiving yards on eight receptions. He finished those two games as the RB6 and RB13, respectively. While not having any huge blow-up games this season, he has been consistent, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but three games this season. He is averaging 19.5 opportunities per game and may be in for an expanded role this week. Tee Higgins has already been ruled out, and Ja’Marr Chase is truly questionable to suit up.
The Texans are more formidable against wide receivers than they are against running backs. Houston allows the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. They have allowed seven rushing touchdowns, tied for sixth-most in the league.
The matchup is decent, and Mixon’s usage is fantastic. The salary is reasonable for a back that gets some utilization in the receiving game and could see a few more short-yardage targets. Mixon is a good cash game player who may be chalky for GPP contests. He has a high-end RB2 floor with a middling RB1 ceiling this week.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) $6000 vs. TB (DraftKings)
Hopkins is an interesting candidate for DFS this week. The aerial portion of the offense has been nothing short of unreliable through most of the season. Then, in week eight, Hopkins reminded the football world that he is still a very talented and dangerous wide receiver. With rookie Will Levis under center, Hopkins accrued 128 receiving yards and all three of his touchdowns this season on just four receptions. In week nine, Hopkins finished with a 4/60/0 receiving line, but had 11 targets.
Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most receiving yards (1,652), third-most receiving touchdowns (10), and the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
As rookie signal caller and veteran wide receiver continue to build rapport, Hopkins is a WR2 with WR1 upside if he can find the endzone. At 6K, Hopkins’s risk is mitigated by the 23.5% target share. He is more of a GPP play this week.
Christian Kirk (JAC) $6700 vs. SF (FanDuel)
Christian Kirk is the WR24 on a points-per-game basis among wide receivers. He averages 7.5 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 65 yards per game. He has finished as a WR2 or better in five of eight games played this season, including one finish inside the top ten. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in six of eight games. What’s most impressive about those figures is that he is a WR2 on a near-weekly basis despite only scoring three touchdowns.
San Francisco can be brutal to quarterbacks and running backs. Their kryptonite is their secondary. The 49ers are ranked fifth-most friendly opponent to wide receivers. Since week six, they have allowed three wide receivers to hit the 100-yard mark and four receiving touchdowns.
Brock Purdy and company will be looking to come out of their bye and end a three-game skid. They will be putting points up, forcing Trevor Lawrence to ramp up the pass attempts. Kirk will likely see more than his average targets this game and is priced in a good spot for a decent return on investment. He is a GPP play this week.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta (DET) $5700 vs. LAC (DraftKings)
LaPorta has put together an impressive rookie campaign. His 110.4 total PPR fantasy points are fourth-best behind only Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews. He is the TE4 on a fantasy points-per-game (13.8) average. He maintains a 20.1% target share and has the second-most targets for the Lions. He is averaging 54.2 receiving yards per game. His volume and role are secure.
Despite limiting touchdowns, The Chargers allow the second-most receiving yards and the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. As mentioned earlier, with the highest over/under on the slate, pieces of both offenses should be in lineups. LaPorta offers a solid floor with some upside and a cost-effective stacking option with Goff. LaPorta has finished as TE in six of eight games, including the overall TE1 back in week three.
LaPorta is a solid play in both cash and GPP matchups.
Dalton Schultz (HOU) $6100 vs. CIN (FanDuel)
Dalton Schultz is the TE7 on a points-per-game basis this season. But that does not tell the whole story. Since week four, he has been the TE3 and scored four touchdowns in that span. During that stretch, his 13.1 points per game are only behind Travis Kelce (14.3) and Mark Andrews (14.2). Nico Collins is doubtful for this game, leaving Schultz and Tank Dell to handle most of the targets. The volume will be there, but how about the matchup?
Well, since you asked, the Bengals allow the most fantasy points to tight ends.
As the sixth-most expensive tight end on this slate, he was already an intriguing value candidate. Add in the absence of a top target against a dreamy matchup, and all I can see is value. Expect him to be chalky, so he may be best used in cash games or stacked with C.J. Stroud ($7700) for GPP contests.
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
