The good news for the first game in Week 9 is the slight spread. The bad news is the game’s total is tiny, meaning it could be an ugly, low-scoring affair. Both defenses and kickers are featured as viable picks. Still, there are a handful of talented offensive players. It’s a fun slate with a mix of notable choices and sneaky punts.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -3.0
Over/Under: 36.0 Points
Titans Analysis: Will Levis had an encouraging debut last week. Still, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Titans ran on 57% of their 49 plays in a neutral game script. Derrick Henry is the focal point of the offense.
King Henry is averaging 75.1 rushing yards per game with three rushing touchdowns this season. He's also in stellar form, handling 77.4% of the backfield's rush share in Tennessee's previous three games, toting the rock 48 times for 245 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and one touchdown. The bulldozer running back also had three targets, three receptions and 17 receiving yards last week in Levis's first start.
There might be enough meat on the bone for Tyjae Spears to help showdown teams if the Titans maintain their run-heavy approach. In his last three games, he's had 14 rushes, 76 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. The rookie running back also had four targets, three receptions and nine receiving yards last week.
The matchup is unimposing for Henry and Spears, too. According to The 33rd Team, running backs had 103.3 rushing yards per game, 3.8 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 2.5 receptions per game, 31.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception against the Steelers since Week 4.
Levis completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions last week. How will he fare on the quick turnaround after providing the Steelers with game tape to prepare for? He could stumble, but the Steelers allowed 266.3 passing yards per game, four passing touchdowns and 19.8 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks since Week 4. The range of outcomes for Levis this week is vast.
DeAndre Hopkins erupted for four receptions, 128 receiving yards and three touchdowns last week. Nuk was on the same page as his strong-armed rookie quarterback, and Levis was willing to throw his No. 1 wideout 50/50 balls.
Sadly, Hopkins will have his hands full when he aligns on the perimeter. According to The 33rd Team, the Steelers have held perimeter wideouts to the fewest DraftKings (6.6) and the fewest FanDuel (5.5) points per game since Week 4. Fortunately, per The 33rd Team, Hopkins has a 37.8% slot rate this year and set a season-high at 52.4% in Week 8. The Steelers have been barbecued by slot wide receivers, coughing up the second-most DK (30.5) and the most FD (23.8) points per game since Week 4.
Last week, Kyle Philips had his best professional contest since his NFL debut in Week 1 of 2022. Obviously, the sophomore's three targets, three receptions and 24 receiving yards weren't anything to write home about. Still, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Philips ran 15 routes in Week 8, only two fewer than Treylon Burks (17 routes) and two more than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (13) ran. Finally, Philips has a 74.5% slot rate this season.
Steelers Analysis: Kenny Pickett is nursing a rib injury but wasn't listed on the injury report after logging a full practice on Wednesday. He has an unexciting matchup this week. The Titans have held opposing quarterbacks to only 221.8 passing yards per game and two passing touchdowns since Week 4. Tennessee is no longer a pass-funnel defense, but the quarterback on the favored team is a viable option on a showdown slate.
Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are comfortably the top options in the passing attack. Since Johnson returned from Injured Reserve in Week 7, he has led the team in targets (20), receptions (13) and receiving yards (164). In those games, Pickens was second in targets (13), third in receptions (six), second in receiving yards (129) and had the team's only receiving touchdown.
If Pickett's rib issue causes him to exit the game early and Mitch Trubisky relieves him, Johnson's value gets a bump and Pickens's takes a hit. In five games when Trubisky attempted 20-plus passes in 2022, Johnson had team-highs for targets (50), receptions (37) and receiving yards (376), markedly more than the 26 targets, 14 receptions and 196 receiving yards, which were the second-highest totals in those contests.
The matchup is midpack for both wide receivers this week when they're on the perimeter. The Titans have allowed 15.4 DK points per game and 12.2 FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4. They've allowed slightly more points to the slot, permitting 17.3 DK and 13.2 FD points per game. Yet again, chalk the matchup up as an advantage for Johnson over Pickens. The former has had a career-high 31.7% slot rate this year, and Pickens has played a pinch over 20% of his snaps aligned in the slot.
Connor Heyward is an acceptable punt on this slate. Since Pittsburgh's bye in Week 6, Heyward had nine targets, seven receptions and 47 receiving yards in two contests. The matchup isn't awful, either. The Titans have allowed 4.5 receptions per game and 48.0 receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 4.
Final Thoughts: King Henry, Levis, Nuk and Johnson are my favorite Captain/MVP options. Balanced lineups, Titans-leaning lineups and Titans onslaught lineups are my preferred lineup constructions. Finally, as gross as it sounds, using both kickers and both DSTs on the same showdown lineup isn't outrageous for gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
