The Bengals and Ravens are meeting for the second time this season after Baltimore won 27-24 in Cincinnati in Week 2. The Bengals are backed into a corner at 5-4 after losing last week, and the Ravens must keep winning to stay atop the AFC North after suffering a thrilling loss in Week 11. Both teams will pull out all the stops to secure victory. The following players are the best picks for the Thursday Night Football showdown slate. However, the lineup construction and Captain/MVP picks are another critical consideration.
NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Primer
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals have a pass-first offense, but Joe Burrow will have his work cut out for him tonight. The Ravens have allowed only one quarterback to eclipse 250 passing yards and two to throw multiple touchdown passes this year.
Moreover, Baltimore's defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, has kept Burrow quiet in four career meetings, holding him to only 215.75 passing yards per game, five passing touchdowns, and two interceptions. Burrow chipped in 7.5 rushing yards per game and two touchdowns on the ground, but it's unwise to bank on the stud quarterback maintaining his pass for rushing touchdowns against his AFC North foe.
Burrow isn't a must-use player on this slate. Still, he's a high-upside pick, averaging 325.7 passing yards per game, with seven passing touchdowns and two interceptions in three games since Cincinnati's bye.
Ja'Marr Chase should be a volume hog since Tee Higgins is out. Chase had 25 targets, 20 receptions, 316 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in two contests without Higgins this season. Chase's ceiling is undeniable.
However, the Ravens could sell out to make anyone else in Cincinnati's receiving corps beat them, and they've had a few impressive showings against Chase, holding him to 50 scoreless yards on seven receptions in Week 5 last season and 31 scoreless yards on five receptions in Week 2 this season. As a result, Chase isn't a shoo-in to light up the Ravens.
Tyler Boyd has also thrived without Higgins this season. In those two games, he had 19 targets, 14 receptions and 156 receiving yards. Boyd did the bulk of that damage last week, flaming the Texans for eight receptions and 117 receiving yards.
Boyd's slot usage will also help him this week. According to The 33rd Team, Boyd's aligned in the slot on 84.6% of his snaps this year, spiking at a season-high 96.5% in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed more points to slot wideouts (16.7 DraftKings and 12.4 FanDuel points per game) than perimeter wide receivers (10.8 DK and 8.5 FD) since Week 7.
Trenton Irwin (50.7% slot rate this year and 46.0% in Week 10) will also have opportunities from the slot. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he was third on the Bengals in routes (80), targets (14), receptions (10), receiving yards (114) and touchdown receptions (one) in the two contests when Higgins was out.
Tanner Hudson is also an enticing value option. He was targeted on an eye-popping 41.2% of his 17 routes last week, producing six receptions for 33 yards. In four games this year, Hudson was targeted on 22.8% of his routes, amassing 14 receptions (3.5 per game) and 126 receiving yards (31.5 per game). Irv Smith had only one target, one reception and six scoreless yards on 15 routes last week and could cede more playing time to Hudson after another lackluster effort.
The Bengals might also lean more heavily on Joe Mixon as a runner than usual. According to RotoViz's pace app, Baltimore's opponents ran on 55% of their 87 plays in a neutral game script since Week 7. In addition, the Bengals ran on 51% of their plays in a neutral game script against the Ravens earlier this season and 47% of them in Week 5 last season. Thus, Cincinnati is willing to pivot from their pass-heavy approach against Baltimore.
Mixon is a bell-cow running back, and the matchup is decent. Mixon has handled 89.1% of Cincinnati's backfield's rush share since their bye, rumbling for 170 yards and three rushing touchdowns. Mixon also ran the team's third-most routes (81) since Week 8, corraling 10 receptions for 53 yards.
And, again, the matchup is rock-solid. The Ravens have allowed 84.75 rushing yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.0 receptions per game and 21.75 receiving yards per game to running backs in their last four games.
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson will get another crack at a defense he torched in Week 2, completing 72.7% of his pass attempts for 237 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also ran 12 times for 54 yards. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken cut him loose in that contest, passing on 67% of 30 plays in a neutral game script in Week 2.
Since Week 8, the Bengals have allowed 326.3 passing yards per game, three passing touchdowns, 36.3 rushing yards per game and two rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Jackson has the passing and rushing chops to move the ball against them through the air and on the ground.
Mark Andrews should aid Jackson in picking the Bengals apart through the air. Since Week 7, he's led the team in targets (24), receptions (19), receiving yards (227) and touchdown receptions (three). In addition, the matchup is tantalizing tonight.
The Bengals have coughed up 7.7 receptions per game and 100.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 8. Andrews also has a stellar track record against the Bengals. It's an eruption spot for Andrews tonight.
Zay Flowers is the other intriguing pass-catcher in Baltimore's offense. Since Week 7, he's tied for second on the Ravens in targets (19), second in receptions (15) and second in receiving yards (178). More importantly, he has a 52.5% slot rate this year, and the Bengals have allowed 20.9 DK and 16.6 FD points per game to slot wideouts since Week 8 versus 16.2 and 13.8 to perimeter wide receivers.
Baltimore's backfield can have success against Cincinnati's unimposing run defense. The Bengals have allowed 76.7 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.7 receptions per game, 35.3 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 8.
Gus Edwards is the club's bruising back. He's a load inside the five-yard line, pacing the Ravens in carries (10) and punching seven into paydirt. Edwards isn't just a goal-line vulture, averaging over 60 scrimmage yards per game. Still, he likely needs to score a touchdown to provide value. Edwards had 10 rushes for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 2.
Keaton Mitchell has made the most of a few opportunities lately. In the last two games, he had 12 rushes for 172 yards and two touchdowns. The speedy rookie also had two receptions for 28 receiving yards. Head coach John Harbaugh has noticed the explosiveness and intends to get him more involved this week.
Mitchell can't keep up his efficiency. Yet, he has the speed to make a house call from anywhere on the field, and even a slight uptick in opportunities would be welcomed.
Final Thoughts: Balanced lineups or ones slightly tilting in either direction are the most appealing for this showdown slate. Jackson is the top Captain/MVP selection in his own tier, followed by Andrews, Burrow and Chase in the second tier. Edwards, Boyd and Mitchell are intriguing Captain choices but not viable MVPs since the salaries don't change between the MVP and flex spots at FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
