The Bears are hosting the Panthers in the first game of Week 9. It has a low total and a slight spread. Regardless, one team is more appealing than the other, reflected in the number of touted players for each club. Beyond the player suggestions, Captain/MVP picks and lineup construction are also critical.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Spread: CHI -3.5
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: Carolina's offense has struggled mightily all year, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of Bryce Young's seven starts. In two games since their bye, they've scored only 28 points under new play-caller Thomas Brown, the team's offensive coordinator.
According to RotoViz's pace app, they've passed on 58% of their 74 plays in a neutral game script with Brown as the play-caller. The Panthers' passing tendencies, coupled with the game's spread, should result in Young dropping back to pass frequently. The diminutive quarterback had his most effective game in Week 8 before producing his least effective game in Week 9. The rookie quarterback isn't a must-use player, but he's in the mix on this showdown slate.
Adam Thielen is the most exciting DFS pick from the Panthers. He's Carolina's best offensive weapon, and Brown hasn't shied away from featuring him. In the previous two weeks, Thielen had a 25.0% target share. The veteran wide receiver had eight receptions for 72 scoreless yards in Week 8 before dipping to five for 29 in Week 9.
Thielen's showing last week was the second-worst of the season for him. Still, according to The 33rd Team, Thielen has played the slot 74.8% of the time this season. Thielen's slot deployment is ideal since the Bears have allowed more points to slot receivers (18.6 DraftKings and 14.4 FanDuel points per game) than to perimeter wideouts (12.8 DK and 10.1 FD points per game) since Week 6.
Bears Analysis: The Tyson Bagent experience hasn't been entirely filled with highs for the Bears. However, the undrafted free agent (UDFA) has avoided sacks, flashed rushing ability and taken chances that have led to fantasy points and turnovers. He's reached at least 220 passing yards in back-to-back games, tossed a season-high two touchdowns in Week 9, threw three interceptions and rushed for a fantasy-friendly 70 yards last week. There are enough positives in Bagent's profile, including being the quarterback of the betting favorite in this game, to make him a viable showdown pick.
DJ Moore is the No. 1 wideout in Chicago's offense. He leads the Bears in receptions per game (5.2), receiving yards per game (81.7) and touchdown receptions (five). Moore had his most productive games with Justin Fields. Still, he was first on the Bears in targets (20), first in receiving yards (156) and second in receptions (15) in Bagent's three starts, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Tyler Scott hasn't done much in his rookie season. The Bears have used him lately, though. In Chicago's last three games, Scott ran the fourth-most routes (68) on the team. The rookie speedster had only seven targets, three receptions and 30 receiving yards in those games. Being on the field as often as Scott has lately is grounds for consideration at his punt salary on DK.
Chicago's backfield can eat against the Panthers. First, the Bears love to lean on the run. Since Week 7, they've run on 52% of their 101 plays in a neutral game script. Second, the Panthers have allowed 80.25 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 3.75 receptions per game, 20.5 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns to running backs since Week 5.
It's unclear how they'll divvy up the backfield duties in Khalil Herbert's probable return from Injured Reserve (IR). After a slow start, Herbert ran for 179 yards on 28 attempts and had four receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown in his last two games before landing on IR.
The team doesn't need to overuse him in his first game since Week 5 because D'Onta Foreman has played well in his absence. In the last three weeks, Foreman toted the rock 45 times for 206 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears could also use Roschon Johnson or Darrynton Evans, but the former didn't have an enhanced role in the offense without Herbert, and Evans is a below-average player. My educated guess is the Bears will split early-down work between Foreman and Herbert, possibly with the former getting the larger share of the pie and the latter supplementing his early-down work with passing-game usage.
Final Thoughts: The Bears aren't huge favorites, but they've shown more signs of life on offense than the Panthers this season. As a result, lineup constructions leaning toward the Bears or full onslaught lineups are my favorites.
Chicago also has my favorite Captain/MVP choices. Specifically, Moore, Bagent, Foreman and Herbert are my favorite options for that role. Thielen is a stellar option from the Panthers, though. On teams where gamers use Thielen as the Captain/MVP choice, it makes sense to use Young as a correlated pick in one of the flex spots. Finally, gamers shouldn't avoid using Foreman and Herbert together on showdown lineups.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
