The Vikings and Broncos are closing Sunday night in a battle of clubs on the rise after dreadful starts to the 2023 campaign. There’s an interesting clash of offensive styles, and the defenses won’t make life easy for their opponents. There’s critical injury information to track. Still, it could be a low-scoring slugfest, reflected in both defenses and kickers earning recognition as viable plays. There’s an intriguing mix of the top offensive players for each club and a sneaky punt worthy of usage on this showdown slate.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -2.5
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: With Justin Jefferson out, T.J. Hockenson is the most exciting option from the pass-happy Vikings. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Vikings passed on 59% of their plays in a neutral game script last week. Kevin O'Connell hasn't abandoned a pass-heavy offense without Kirk Cousins, and Hockenson is the apple of Joshua Dobbs's eye.
Hockenson has a 39.1% target share, 18 receptions, 204 receiving yards and one touchdown reception on Dobbs's 64 pass attempts for the Vikings. Hockenson is a volume hog and has a superb matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Broncos have allowed 7.25 receptions per game, 76.0 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to tight ends since Week 6, albeit they faced Travis Kelce twice.
Dobbs is also a stellar selection from the Vikings as the dual-threat triggerman of a pass-happy offense. In a relief appearance and one start for the Vikings, Dobbs has completed 43 of 64 passes (67.2%) for 426 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He's also rumbled for 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns while donning Minnesota's uniform. Denver's defense has terrorized quarterbacks lately, but Dobbs's rushing ability elevates his floor and ceiling in a tricky matchup.
Alexander Mattison is listed as questionable but trending in the right direction to play.
The Vikings previously played it safe when K.J. Osborn passed through the NFL's concussion protocol last week. Will they do the same with Mattison? It's unclear.
Nevertheless, Ty Chandler cut into Mattison's work before he was concussed last week. According to Nathan Jahnke at Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mattison and Chandler each had eight carries in the first three quarters in Week 10. Chandler had season-highs for rushes (15) and rushing yards (45) last week and punched in a touchdown from the Wildcat formation.
Chandler's value would skyrocket if Mattison were made inactive. Still, after Mattison has inefficiently lumbered through the season to this point, the speedier Chandler is an intriguing matchup-driven pick.
The Broncos have yielded 101.25 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 6.25 receptions per game and 37.25 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 6. Even if Mattison is active and Chandler is at risk of remaining in a complementary role, he can deliver value in a cushy matchup.
Broncos Analysis: Sean Payton has taken the air out of the ball, and that didn't change after their bye in Week 9. In Week 10, they ran on 54% of their plays in a neutral game script. Javonte Williams was unleashed before the bye and remained atop the heap after the break. He handled 21 of Denver's backfield's 28 rush attempts, churning out 79 yards in Week 10.
According to PFF, Williams also ran 11 routes and had four targets, four receptions, 31 receiving yards and a touchdown reception. Samaje Perine ran 12 routes in Week 10. Still, Williams's stranglehold on the bulk of the rushing attempts and a chunk of receiving work makes Williams an attractive DFS choice for the favored Broncos.
Russell Wilson is an acceptable pick. However, he hasn't eclipsed 200 passing yards in his last five games. Wilson has tossed multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games and had at least 30 rushing yards in four of his last six, though.
The most significant concern for Wilson's DFS value this week is his struggles against the blitz and Minnesota's blitz-heavy tendencies. First, Wilson is PFF's 29th-ranked passer among 34 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks against the blitz. Second, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings have had an NFL-high 49.0% blitz rate this season. Thus, Wilson isn't a no-brainer pick.
Courtland Sutton is Denver's top passing-game weapon. He's a touchdown machine, reaching paydirt in his previous four games and seven of nine. In the Broncos' last four games, Sutton paced the club in routes (120), targets (26), receptions (20), receiving yards (209) and receiving touchdowns (four). Sutton has the highest ceiling in Denver's offense, but the floor is low if he doesn't score a touchdown in their run-heavy offense.
Marvin Mims is the second-most inviting pick in Denver's pass-catching corps, salary considered. Payton said he intended to get the rookie more involved in the offense after the bye, and he delivered. Mims didn't catch his only target. Still, he ran the third-most routes (28) for the Broncos.
The rookie wideout doesn't have any receiving yards in four straight contests. However, he showcased his upside earlier in the year, catching two passes for 113 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 and securing three receptions for 73 yards in Week 3. Mims is a boom-or-bust pick.
Lucas Krull is a sneaky contrarian pick if he's elevated from the practice squad again this week. Krull ran 16 routes versus 18 for Adam Trautman in Week 10. The 25-year-old tight end has an intriguing athletic profile and was used vertically in the preseason by the Saints.
In two seasons playing for the Saints in the preseason, Krull had 28 targets, 14 receptions, 160 receiving yards and a 10.8-yard average depth of target. Trautman hasn't added anything to Denver's passing game. So, they might summon Krull from the practice squad and give him a second chance. He's a viable option at the minimum salary on DraftKings against a defense that has allowed 5.0 receptions per game, 68.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to tight ends since Week 7.
Final Thoughts: Hockenson and Williams are the top Captain/MVP choices for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate. Finally, balanced lineups are my preferred construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
