The Sunday Night Football game’s spread is slight. However, the visiting Ravens are a markedly better club than the host Chargers. Baltimore’s also had extra time to prepare for the contest after playing on Thursday in Week 11. The Ravens have more alluring DFS options on this showdown slate. However, the top-heavy Chargers also have some stellar picks.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: BAL -3.0
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson is a do-it-all weapon. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's completing a career-high 69.5% of his passes for 221.9 yards per game, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. But, of course, Jackson is also gashing teams for 48.6 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns.
The fly in the ointment for Jackson is ceding touchdowns to the backfield. He also must adjust to life without Mark Andrews. Nevertheless, Jackson is an elite selection on this slate, with an unmatched ceiling in a cupcake matchup. The Chargers have allowed 287.5 passing yards per game and four passing touchdowns since Week 8.
Zay Flowers is the best healthy, relatively speaking, pass-catching option for the Ravens. He's listed as questionable but was a full practice participant on Friday. Odell Beckham has declared himself a game-time decision. Circling back to the rookie wideout, he has the most advantageous matchup among Baltimore's wideouts. Per The 33rd Team, Flowers has a 52.3% slot rate this year. Since Week 8, the Chargers have held perimeter wide receivers to 10.8 DraftKings points per game and 8.3 FanDuel points per game. Yet, they've coughed up 25.5 DK points per game and 22.0 FD points per game to slots.
Isaiah Likely is arguably the second-most attractive pass-catching choice from the Ravens. He was a productive fill-in for Andrews as a rookie. Unfortunately, the sophomore tight end had only one reception for four scoreless yards on two targets in two games where he paced tight ends on the Ravens in playing time. He's also cleared 40 receiving yards only once in 2023.
Fortunately, Likely has a good matchup this week. The Chargers have allowed 8.0 receptions per game, 73.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 8. Charlie Kolar is a sleeper. Likely's lack of production this season could pave the way for Kolar to play more often.
The Ravens actually picked Kolar slightly earlier than Likely in last year's NFL Draft. Kolar has an eye-catching athletic profile.
Kolar was also productive at Iowa State. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kolar had over 590 receiving yards in his final three college seasons, scoring at least six touchdowns in each of those campaigns. He also had at least 2.08 yards per route run (Y/RR) in each of his final three college seasons. Kolar's floor is zero points on this slate. However, he's a sneaky GPP pick who could see his career's most extensive playing time, especially if Likely can't make an immediate impact in this game.
The Ravens aren't the same run-heavy team they were in previous seasons. According to RotoViz's pace app, Baltimore has passed on 59% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 8. However, offensive coordinator Todd Monken's answer for Andrews's absence could be to run the ball more often.
Even if the Ravens maintain their present rush rate, Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell have a good matchup. The Ravens have allowed 94.5 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 7.0 receptions per game and 38.8 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 8.
Edwards is the backfield's thunder, and Mitchell is the lightning. The Gus Bus has rumbled for 218 rushing yards (54.5 per game) and eight touchdowns in his last four games. Mitchell has turned 20 rushes into 205 yards (68.3 per game) and two touchdowns in his last three games. The electrifying rookie running back also has a 32-yard reception on only four receptions on his ledger. Edwards is the best pick in the backfield, but Mitchell's big-play ability can produce a useful DFS line on only a few touches. Thus, both are rock-solid picks.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers are a pass-happy offense. They've passed on 61% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 8. During that stretch, Justin Herbert had 1,018 passing yards (254.5 per game), nine passing touchdowns and one interception. Herbert also ran for 26.5 yards per game in his last four games.
Sadly, Herbert's matchup is dreadful. The Ravens have allowed only 186.8 passing yards per game, five passing touchdowns and four interceptions to quarterbacks in their previous four games. Herbert has the talent to break through a challenging matchup. Yet, he's not a no-brainer choice.
Keenan Allen is Herbert's only reliable weapon. In three games since Joshua Palmer was injured, Allen has had 37 targets, 29 receptions (9.7 per game), 368 receiving yards (122.7 per game) and three receiving touchdowns. Allen, like Herbert, has a suboptimal matchup but can get the best of even a top-shelf defense.
Donald Parham and Jalen Guyton are useful punt-salaried players in LA's lackluster receiving corps. The Ravens have allowed 6.3 receptions per game, 59.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends in their last four games. Parham has averaged a ho-hum 2.0 receptions per game and 25.0 receiving yards per game in his last three contests. However, he's also given Herbert a skyscraper target in scoring territory, catching three touchdowns on seven targets inside the 10-yard line this season.
Guyton was blanked in his season premiere in Week 9. The veteran speedster had six targets, 41 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 10. Guyton was out last week with an injury but was a limited participant in practice all week, setting the stage for a return this week.
Austin Ekeler is also a critical piece of the passing game in addition to his rushing responsibilities. Since Week 8, Ekeler has handled 71.6% of LA's backfield's rush share, carrying the rock 58 times for 207 yards (51.8 per game) and three touchdowns. Ekeler has also been third on the team in routes (74), second in targets (15), tied for second in receptions (eight) and second in receiving yards (77) since Week 9. He's a game-script-proof workhorse.
Final Thoughts: Jackson is in tier one of the Captain/MVP options. Allen and Ekeler are in the second tier. Edwards is the only other reasonable Captain/MVP choice in the third tier.
A balanced lineup is my favorite construction. Yet, a Ravens onslaught is also an intriguing construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
