The New York Jets and the Las Vegas Raiders close our Sunday slate. For the casual fan, this game seems like a nightmare of a viewing experience. For all of us in the DFS world, we find gold in this trash heap of a game.
Vegas has 36.5 total implied points for this game and only a one-point favorite leaning toward the New York Jets. Who would have figured Zach Wilson could lead a team as a favorite in a matchup? Will we see Aidan O’Connell show out as a rookie? Which of these stud running backs will lead us to victory Sunday night?
Let’s break it all down.
The New York Jets and the Las Vegas Raiders close our Sunday slate. For the casual fan, this game seems like a nightmare of a viewing experience. For all of us in the DFS world, we find gold in this trash heap of a game.
Vegas has 36.5 total implied points for this game and only a one-point favorite leaning toward the New York Jets. Who would have figured Zach Wilson could lead a team as a favorite in a matchup? Will we see Aidan O’Connell show out as a rookie? Which of these stud running backs will lead us to victory Sunday night?
Let’s break it all down.
NFL DFS Sunday Night Showdown Primer & Picks
- Game: New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: NYJ -1
- Over/Under: 36.5 Points
New York Jets
Let’s start at quarterback. The Zach Wilson experience is a torturous path to walk. Wilson represents the perfect definition of high risk but high reward. The Raiders’ defense is no picnic to face either, as they only allow 14.2 FPPG to the position, making them the ninth-toughest opponent for all signal callers this season. With the Raiders’ defense leaking oil in the run game, the Jets should look to hide their lack of talent under center by leaning on their superstar running back, Breece Hall.
Defending the running back position is where the Raiders have had issues all season. They have dealt with the third-highest number of rushing attempts against their defense. The Raiders have also allowed the second-most rushing yards and are tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns allowed this season.
This Raiders’ defense also allows running backs to manhandle their team in the passing game. Teams will target the running back at the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. They allow the seventh-most receptions against their team and the 11th-most receiving yards to the running back position. All these stats have landed the Raiders as the team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2023. Hall could take over against a strong defense, let alone a bottom-of-the-barrel run defense like the Las Vegas Raiders. Use Hall in your lineup; he is an option for your captain spot.
The main question for the Jets’ WRs is: Do you trust anyone with Zach Wilson? The answer is no. Especially when the Raiders allow only 18.3 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, making them the seventh-most challenging opponent to face this year. When you combine those stats with the inconsistent nature of Wilson, you have a concoction that could erupt in your face if you land on these wide receivers.
You could use tight ends from the New York Jets in your DFS lineup, but the Raiders only allow 6.4 FPPG to the tight end position. This low total ranks the Raiders as the eighth-toughest opponent for tight ends in 2023. Tyler Conklin would be the only usable option in this core. However, his best game this season was TE13, so don’t expect a takeover this Sunday night.
Kickers and defenses are always on the table whenever you see a low implied total such as the one in this game, especially when that defense is as strong as the New York Jets against a rookie quarterback. The Jets have four games this season with four or more sacks. This defense has also created two forced fumbles in two games while having three games with two or more interceptions. The New York Jets’ defense is stacked, and they should find a way into your lineup.
As for kickers, they are never the sexy pick, but they can lead you to victory. Greg Zuerlein has had two or more field goal attempts in every game but one this season. He also has two games of four or more attempts. With Wilson leading the way, the drives could stall and give “Greg the Leg” the chance to shine in your lineup.
Las Vegas Raiders
The spirit has changed in the locker room for the Las Vegas Raiders. However, we must keep our feet on the Earth about their upside after last week’s victory was only against the New York Giants.
Rookie QB Aidan O’Connell feels more like a floor play than one to elevate your DFS lineup. Last week, he completed 16 passes for 209 yards with no touchdowns or turnovers. Yet, the game didn’t require him to make any memorable plays. O’Connell can extend drives, but if you play him, be warned he could score you the same points as a kicker would against this strong New York defense.
Now, to the running back position and my choice for the captain slot, Josh Jacobs. One of my favorite rules of DFS is to lean on the pass-catching running back from the underdog. That is Jacobs this week, and what a play he can be for our lineup. He is the bellcow for this team, rushing 26 times in Week 9. He also sees plays in the passing game where he has received three or more targets three times this season. My favorite part of leaning on Jacobs is that the Raider’s first-half rushing percentage sits at 43.2%, the third highest in the NFL. The Raiders try to establish Jacobs in every game plan they execute in 2023. We can also take advantage of Aidan O’Connell’s check-down rate of 14.3%, the eighth highest in the NFL. Jacobs is a must in your DFS lineup, with the New York Jets allowing the 12th-most rushing yards and the sixth-most receptions to running backs.
One position I’m very weary of for both sides of the ball is the pass-catching options. The New York Jets have thrown 316 passes (21st overall), and the Raiders have thrown 317 (20th overall). Both teams prefer to run but then have to lean on the passing game when the second-half game script demands them to. Still, with both teams struggling to produce in the air, this game should be focused on something other than the pass-catching options. It is wise to avoid the pass when the Raiders face someone like Sauce Gardner, who could shut down the team’s best option. My fade in this matchup is the Raiders’ entire passing offense.
You can attack this slate with the Raiders’ kickers and defense. The defense has scored 10+ points in their last two matchups. Last week, they recorded eight sacks and had 15 over their previous four games. The opposing quarterback is Wilson, and we know what he brings to the table. It’s reminiscent of four-day-old Chinese food; we can take advantage of those lacking skills Sunday night.
Daniel Carlson is always an excellent bet for your DFS lineup. Carlson has seven games over five fantasy points this season. He has three field goal attempts or more in four of his last five games in 2023. With the low implied Vegas total, kickers are definitely in your player pool options.
DraftKings Lineup
- Josh Jacobs ($16,500) – Captain
- Raiders D/ST ($4,600)
- Jets D/ST ($4,200)
- Daniel Carlson ($5,000)
- Breece Hall ($11,400)
- Greg Zuerlein ($4,400)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Remember to peruse all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros, and feel free to contact me on Twitter at @jpep20. Remember these stacks and the rules of DFS we have discussed over these past seven weeks, and good luck in Week 10!