NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 9 (2023 Fantasy Football)

As everyone clearly predicted, here were the top performers at each position in Week 8:

• QB1: Sam Howell
• RB1: Gus Edwards
• WR1:DeAndre Hopkins (with Will Levis at QB)
• TE1: Taysom Hill

If you parlay that into DFS, the wild GPP players likely had a strong week, but we still had some of the usuals put up strong floor games as well.

Now we look ahead to Week 9, and once again, some injuries (and primetime games) are giving us some pricing gifts on DraftKings. Let’s see what we can come up with.

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 9

QUARTERBACK

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) | $5,600 @ LV

Daniel Jones has reportedly been cleared for contact, and if all goes well, he should retake his starting QB role this week against the Raiders. It was an utter disaster for the Giants in Week 8 as they refused to let third-stringer Tommy DeVito throw the ball in their 13-10 loss to the Jets. Theoretically, Jones should open up the offense a lot more. The Raiders present a difficult challenge due to their pass rush, but they’re on a short week, and the Giants’ offensive line has been improving with each week. There’s also a chance they get back star LT Andrew Thomas in addition to Jones.

PJ Walker (QB – CLE) | $4,800 vs. ARI

Never in a million years did I think I’d be recommending PJ Walker for DFS, but he’s been… capable as the Browns starter in three games this year. This week, I actually think there’s an upside due to the matchup, so we’ll take the sub-$5k price tag. As long as Deshaun Watson sits again, Walker should face a clean pocket against the Arizona Cardinals, who rank last by a good bit in pressure rate. Arizona has also allowed the third-highest YPA, the fifth-highest completion % and the eighth-most FPPG to quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) | $6,800 @ PHI

Let’s face it:  Tony Pollard has been disappointing this year. The preseason hype for his first full season as lead back pushed his ADP into the first round in some drafts, and Pollard currently ranks as the RB16 in PPR formats. Throw in a matchup against the Eagles, who allow the fewest FPPG to RBs, and you have reason to fade Pollard, not play him.

However, we’re betting on talent and role versus price factor here, and Pollard is simply too cheap at $6,800. His role is unquestioned this year with over a 70% snap share and a 66.5% opportunity share. In addition, Dallas’ 30 run plays per game is sixth in the NFL. Pollard also has 35 red zone touches, the second-most in the NFL. He hasn’t scored since Week 8, so massive positive TD regression is coming.

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) | $5,000 vs. IND

Maybe Miles Sanders‘ injury is playing a part here, but it seems as though Chuba Hubbard has taken over as the lead back in Carolina. Sanders only played 12 snaps in Week 8 while logging two carries, while Hubbard shouldered the load again. The latter was wildly inefficient, but his price didn’t move as a result. This week presents a positive matchup, as the Colts have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to opposing RBs.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) | $5,000 @ NE

Don’t look now, but everyone’s preseason darling has racked up 18 targets over the last two weeks and finished as the WR7 this past weekend with 24.8 points. It might still be difficult to trust Jahan Dotson in cash games, but his price has not moved nearly enough for GPP. New England is an imposing pass defense, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency through the air. The encouraging sign is Dotson’s raised aDOT over the last two weeks, which was a major concern in the early going.

Demario Douglas (WR – NE)/JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – NE) | $4,000/$3,100 vs. WAS

Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL, and DeVante Parker was also forced out of Sunday’s game, leaving the New England pass-catching corps dangerously thin. Demario Douglas and JuJu Smith-Schuster should be looking at a heavy flow of targets, and it can’t come at a better time against the Commanders who have allowed the highest YPA and the second-most FPPG to WRs. To top it off, Montez Sweat was traded during the writing of this article, which will greatly diminish Washington’s pass rush.

TIGHT END

Hunter Henry (TE – NE) | $3,600 vs. WAS

It’s New England pass-catcher central this week for DFS value. None of the receivers (or tight end) are priced in accordance with their matchup or the injury bug slamming through them. Hunter Henry was the TE2 through the first two weeks before the offensive scheme changed, but they may be forced to heavily target him once more. Washington also offers a solid matchup for TEs, allowing the sixth-most FPPG to the position.