I hope everyone had a safe, restful, family-filled (and hopefully profitable) Thanksgiving. We saw some good football and chalk DFS players that carried us to the promised land in Week 12!
Now, we turn our attention to Week 13, and it’s another bye-filled one. Let’s see what we can come up with, and happy hunting!
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- NFL DFS Stacking Strategy & Advice
NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 13
QUARTERBACK
Derek Carr (QB – NO) | $5,600 vs. DET
Derek Carr is the epitome of what the kids today call “mid,” but he isn’t without value in fantasy football. His price tag is at an all-time low right now, and he’s facing a Lions squad that has allowed the sixth-most FPPG to opposing QBs. Carr has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last six games, and the six TDs suggest there’s positive TD regression this week.
RUNNING BACK
Rachaad White (RB – NO) | $6,300 vs. CAR
Rachaad White continues to be underpriced as one of the true bell-cow backs in the NFL. White has logged a snap share of 80% or higher for the sixth-straight game and has double-digit DK points in all six. White’s 44 targets are fifth in the NFL, and he’s also garnered 29 RZ opportunities, which is ninth in the league. Now he gets the nuts matchup for RBs against the Panthers, who have allowed the third-most FPPG to the position, along with a whopping 16 all-purpose TDs.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) | $5,200 vs. ARI
Jaylen Warren is getting all the buzz for Pittsburgh in the backfield, but Najee Harris has been just fine lately. He’s shown explosiveness in two of his last three games, with per-carry averages of 5.1 and 6.6, and has scored four TDs in his last six games. Jaylen Warren is a significant part of this backfield (and is also a good play this weekend), but Najee is still out-carrying him and is facing off against a Cardinals defense that cannot stop anyone. Arizona has allowed over five YPC and the second-most FPPG to opposing RBs.
WIDE RECEIVER
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) | $5,500 vs. MIA
Terry McLaurin seems to be an evergreen entry to these articles of mine, but that’s more of an indication of DraftKings’ refusal to price him up. Despite the return (and strong game) of Curtis Samuel, McLaurin still received 11 targets, which brings his total up to 85 (good for 15th in the league). “Scary Terry” also leads the entire league in route runs and is top 20 in air yards. Miami has allowed the 10th-most FPPG to opposing WRs, and Washington figures to be in a negative game script for most of this one.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) | $5,000 vs. ARI
Every Pittsburgh Steelers player gets an upgrade this week, as Arizona ranks dead last in overall defensive efficiency, pressure rat, and QB hit rate (and not really close in the last two). Diontae Johnson’s allergy to the end zone is frustrating for fantasy owners, but he’s maintained the PPR value he’s always had with 43 targets over his last five contests.
TIGHT END
David Njoku (TE – CLE) | $4,100 @ LAR
I had expected to write up Pat Friermuth here, but his price jumped from $2,900 to $4,300 after his big week against Cincinnati. Meanwhile, David Njoku’s price has remained static despite receiving nine more targets in Week 12. That marks the fifth game out of the last six in which Njoku has gotten at least eight targets, and he’s scored double-digit DK points in all six. The Rams have allowed the seventh-most FPPG to opposing TEs, setting the tight end up for continued success.
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