NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 10 (2023 Fantasy Football)

Can you believe we’re already past the halfway point of the NFL season?

It seems like we’re already that much closer to inundating Twitter with mock drafts for our favorite teams and loading up on preseason bestballs. Until that day comes, though, we press on with our DFS journey.

This week, we have another tidy 10-gamer on the docket and some interesting personnel changes among the teams. Let’s dig in and find all the DraftKings mispricings!

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 10

QUARTERBACK

Sam Howell (QB – WAS) |$5,800 @ SEA

Despite moving up the season QB scoring rankings (he’s now QB6), Sam Howell’s price tag remains static on DraftKings. Howell has thrown the ball 139 times over the last three weeks, and the removal of Washington’s top-two pass rushers on defense should give the offense a lot more dropback volume. This week, the Commanders travel to Seattle and will face a Seahawks team that gets beat through the air far more than on the ground. Howell is a high-floor/decent-ceiling play.

Taylor Heinicke (QB – ATL) | $5,100 @ ARI

I hate recommending Atlanta players since it’s such a crapshoot how the game script will play out. Atlanta is also seventh in the league in team rush rate, which lowers QB ceilings. That said, the matchup against Arizona can’t be ignored. They’ve been getting gashed on defense all season and have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to opposing QBs while ranking dead last in pressure rate and QB hits. If Drake London returns, that’s another weapon for Taylor Heinecke, who is not priced for the matchup boost he’s getting.

RUNNING BACK

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) | $5,000 vs. GB

Technically, Najee Harris should be the pricing play here, as he’s actually $100 less than Jaylen Warren. The latter is still trailing the former in snap share (52% to 47%), but the fact that Warren’s 35 targets are sixth in the NFL gives me much more of a reason to use him over Harris. Warren is also averaging over a full yard per carry more than Harris, and the Packers have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to opposing RBs.

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) | $4,700 @ ARI

This is the DFS version of the classic fantasy football mantra “Why draft ___ when you can get ___ five rounds later?”. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are both set up for success against this Cardinals defense, but the fact that Allgeier is $1,300 less makes it a pretty easy call for me. The snap shares fluctuate, but the touch shares have remained almost an even 50/50 all season. Robinson has far more targets in the passing game, but Allgeier has out-carried him 116 to 103 while garnering 11 more red zone touches on the season. If the field flocks to Robinson in this smash matchup, pivot to Allgeier for Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) glory.

WIDE RECEIVER

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) | $5,700 @ SEA

Terry McLaurin continues to be perpetually too cheap for his role in this offense and his production. McLaurin is third in the NFL in routes run and is top 20 in both targets and air yards. He has double-digit targets in three games and double-digit DK points in all but two games this year. Pair him up with Howell (again) against a Seattle squad that allows the seventh most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC) | $4,100 vs. DET

Even with Josh Palmer hitting IR, there should have been no expectation for Quentin Johnston to succeed on Monday night against the elite Jets secondary. This week should look different, as the Chargers will return home to face off against a Lions squad that allows the ninth-most YPA. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler will continue to be the first reads in this Chargers offense, but QJ’s price tag is solid in all formats.

TIGHT END

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) | $5,000 vs. NO

T.J. Hockenson was megachalk at $5,200 this past weekend and didn’t disappoint on volume with seven catches on 12 targets. For some reason, his price has gone down $200 for week 10, and he’s getting a full game of Joshua Dobbs. In eight games with the Cardinals, Dobbs targeted his TEs 78 times, and it looks like we’re at least another week out from the return of Justin Jefferson. Expect Hockenson to be fed early and often, especially if K.J. Osborn (who left the game last week) is forced to miss time as well. New Orleans is a strong defense overall but below average against TEs.