The Eagles and Chiefs will conclude Week 11 with a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl in the week’s marquee matchup. This year, Philadelphia and Kansas City are arguably the two best teams in the league. The offenses are top-heavy, creating a need to get creative with punts on this showdown slate. There were also tough cuts in the middle tier. The following players are the most appealing selections. Still, there are nuances to consider when constructing the showdown rosters.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is a do-it-all weapon. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's averaging 260.8 passing yards per game and 35.1 rushing yards per game, with 15 passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns this season. The Eagles have put a ton on his plate as a passer and a runner. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Eagles passed on 57% of their plays in neutral game scripts in their last four games before their bye in Week 10.
Hurts has multiple paths to scoring DFS points and is an elite pick on this slate. A.J. Brown is his top dog when Hurts takes to the air. Brown is averaging 7.4 receptions per game and 111.7 receiving yards per game with six touchdown receptions this season. Since a quiet Week 2 effort, Brown has eclipsed 125 yards six times, reeled in at least six receptions seven times and had seven receptions for 66 receiving yards and a touchdown in the only game he didn't best 125 receiving yards during his heater.
The physically imposing wideout had six receptions, 96 receiving yards and one touchdown reception in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. In addition, the matchup is a stylistic fit for Brown. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Chiefs have played man coverage at the seventh-highest rate (31.6%) this season, and Brown has the most full-point point-per-reception (PPR) points per route run (0.95), the highest PFF receiving grade and the sixth-most yards per route run (3.92 Y/RR) against man coverage this season. Brown has a massive ceiling and is an elite option.
DeVonta Smith should get an uptick in usage without Dallas Goedert. Per PFF, Smith had 40 targets, 25 receptions (5.0 per game), 420 receiving yards (84.0 per game) and two receiving touchdowns in five games without Goedert last season. Smith was also in good form before the bye, tallying 26 targets, 19 receptions, 234 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in his last four games. He's not a must-use player on this top-heavy slate. Nevertheless, Smith is worth mixing in for gamers who enter multiple lineups.
D'Andre Swift is the only other high-end choice from the Eagles. In Philadelphia's last four games, Swift had 75.6% of the Eagles' backfield's rush share, carrying the ball 59 times for 180 yards, 3.1 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. Swift also ran 89 routes versus 49 for Kenneth Gainwell. In those contests, Swift had 15 receptions, 91 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Swift's backfield role was desirable, albeit with inefficient results.
The matchup is outstanding for him this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Chiefs allowed 105.5 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.5 receptions per game, 26.25 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs in their final four games before their bye in Week 10. Additionally, the Eagles ran on 47% of their plays in a neutral game script in the Super Bowl. Swift is an intriguing choice.
It's not outrageous to galaxy-brain selections on a slate such as this. If you take a trip down the narrative street, Rashaad Penny is a reasonable pick if he's active. Penny was active for Philadelphia's final game before their bye because Boston Scott was out with a personal matter. He toted the rock twice for eight yards against the Cowboys in Week 9. It was a tiny role, but the Eagles didn't have to give Penny any carries since Swift and Gainwell could have handled the entire load.
Penny's 2022 season was cut short because of a severe injury. Moreover, he's had numerous significant injuries in his career. Have the Eagles kept him in bubble wrap to use him down the stretch? Could he have recaptured some of his pre-injury explosiveness while working behind the scenes to this point in the 2023 campaign? The most likely outcome is that Penny will be inactive this week. Yet, Scott is back from his personal matter. So, suppose the Eagles have Penny active on Monday night. In that case, it should raise some eyebrows, especially since Swift and Gainwell each averaged a paltry 3.1 yards per carry in Philadelphia's last four games before their bye despite running behind Philadelphia's butt-kicking offensive line.
Albert Okwuegbunam is also a leap-of-faith choice. He was active for the first time in 2023 in Week 9. He didn't have any targets but ran two routes, per PFF. Might the Eagles have spent their bye concocting ways to use the speedy Albert O since Goedert is out and Philadelphia's other healthy tight ends lack the tools Okwuegbunam possesses? Maybe.
Okwuegbunam has flashed receiving chops when given the chance, sporting 1.51 Y/RR and earning a target on 19.9% of his routes in his career. Brown and Smith can shoulder almost all the receiving workload, so a meaningful third contributor stepping up isn't a shoo-in. Regardless, Olamide Zaccheaus, Julio Jones, Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra haven't done much with their opportunities, paving the way for Okwuegbunam to chip in.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is having a down year by his lofty standards. But, of course, he's still playing well by mortal standards, ranking sixth in passing yards per game (271.3) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (17). Furthermore, the offense is still running through him. The Chiefs passed on 62% of their plays in a neutral game script in their last four games before their bye in Week 10.
Conveniently for the Chiefs, the Eagles have a pass-funnel defense. Teams passed at the highest rate (69%) in neutral game scripts against the Eagles since Week 6. Mahomes should be active, and Philadelphia's pass defense permitted 293.25 passing yards per game, eight passing touchdowns, and 9.25 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks from Week 6 through Week 9. It's an eruption spot for Mahomes.
Travis Kelce is the most likely player to be on the receiving end of passes from Mahomes. He's a target hog. In Kansas City's four games before their bye in Week 10, Kelce had 33 targets, 30 receptions, 375 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown, easily besting the 17 targets, 15 receptions and 205 receiving yards, which were the second-highest marks in those categories.
The matchup isn't easy. However, Kelce is a matchup-proof monster. Additionally, he had six receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl against the Eagles. Kelce is an elite pick, albeit a pinch behind Hurts, Brown and Mahomes.
Rashee Rice is the second-most exciting pass-catching choice from the Chiefs. The rookie wideout has been the wide receiving corps's lone bright spot this season. He was also cooking with gasoline before the bye, ranking second in targets (17), receptions (15) and receiving yards (205) and first in touchdown receptions (two) in Kansas City's last four games. Rice has room for more playing time in Kansas City's deep rotation of unproductive wideouts.
Rice also has a mouthwatering matchup. According to The 33rd Team, Rice has a 68.5% slot rate this year. Meanwhile, the Eagles have coughed up 27.9 DraftKings and 21.5 FanDuel points per game to slots in their previous four games versus 22.6 DK and 17.5 FD points per game to perimeter wideouts.
Justin Watson is a limited player. He's also an effective and trusted vertical weapon. Watson has tallied 19.7 yards per reception, 1.61 Y/RR and a 22.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this season. He's cleared 40 receiving yards in five of eight games this season. Watson can also benefit from a 52.6% slot rate.
Skyy Moore isn't an easy sell. The second-year pro hasn't made meaningful strides this season. However, he has a 50.2% slot rate in 2023. In addition, Moore ran the fourth-most routes (85) in Kansas City's last four games. Being on the field is half the battle when playing with a magician like Mahomes. Mahomes's ability to extend plays led to a deep reception for Moore in Week 2 against the Jaguars, and it could do the same against the Eagles.
Noah Gray was fifth on the Chiefs in routes (75) since Week 6. He was also tied for fourth in receptions (eighth) and fourth in receiving yards (81). Again, being on the field is half the battle when playing with Mahomes.
Final Thoughts: Hurts, Brown and Mahomes are in the top tier for Captain/MVP choices on this slate. Kelce is in the second tier. Swift is the only other Captain option, but not a reasonable MVP pick since FD doesn't adjust the salaries for that spot.
Balanced lineups or those leaning in either direction are the most desirable. However, a Chiefs onslaught with only one-man-stud Hurts from the Eagles isn't too shabby, either.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
