The inconsistent Bills are hosting the plucky Broncos to close Week 10. Buffalo is understandably favored, but the game has shootout potential. As a result, the kickers and defenses aren’t featured among the suggested selections. Instead, gamers should invest in the following players from the offenses.
Game: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -7.0
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: Denver's offense hasn't lit the world on fire. Yet, Buffalo's injury-ravaged defense could bring the best out of the Broncos. Russell Wilson has rebounded from a nightmare first season on the Broncos. He's thrown 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions, albeit with an underwhelming 201.6 passing yards per game.
Sean Payton hasn't asked too much from his signal-caller. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Broncos have rushed on a whopping 58% of their 118 plays in neutral game scripts in their last three games. Still, Wilson might have to shoulder more of the load against the Bills since the Broncos are underdogs. Teams have also chosen to attack the Bills through the air, passing on 60% of their 201 plays in neutral game scripts since Week 6.
When Wilson airs it out, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are his top weapons. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Sutton (58 routes) and Jeudy (49) were the only two players to exceed 45 routes in Denver's last two games. Sutton had eight receptions, 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and Jeudy had seven receptions, 114 receiving yards and one touchdown in those games, making them the only players to clear 100 receiving yards for Denver.
Sutton and Jeudy should have opportunities to attack where Buffalo's secondary is the most susceptible. According to The 33rd Team, the Bills have allowed more points to slot wideouts (26.6 DraftKings and 19.6 FanDuel points per game) than to perimeter wide receivers (11.1 DK and 8.1 FD points per game) since Week 6. Meanwhile, Jeudy and Sutton have slot rates of 74.8% and 53.4% this season, per The 33rd Team.
Marvin Mims could have an uptick in playing time coming out of Denver's bye in Week 9.
Mims has played in the slot 52.2% of the time this year and is a vertical threat. Per PFF, the speedy rookie wide receiver has a 19.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and seven targets deep (20-plus yards downfield) this season. Mims has as many targets deep as he has at all other depths of the field combined. His downfield ability could get a lift from the absences of cornerback Christian Benford and safety Jordan Poyer in Buffalo's secondary for this game.
Adam Trautman is an acceptable but unexciting punt on FD. However, he's a steal at $200 on DK against a defense that's struggled against tight ends. The Bills have allowed multiple receptions to six tight ends since Week 5 (the game when Matt Milano suffered a significant injury). Cade Otton (four receptions for 27 scoreless yards), Tanner Hudson (4-45-0), Drew Sample (3-30-1), Irv Smith (3-26-1), Mike Gesicki (2-5-1) and Pharaoh Brown (2-51-0) were among the tight ends to have decent performances against the Bills during that stretch. In Denver's last two games, Trautman had only one reception for five yards. Yet, he ran the third-most route (44) for the Broncos.
Gamers can expect Javonte Williams to be fed the rock when the game is close. In Denver's last two games, Williams ran 42 times out of 53 backfield rushing opportunities, amassing 167 yards. He also ran the most routes among Denver's running backs, running 23 versus 21 for Samaje Perine and eight for Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams was targeted on 30.4% of those routes and had six receptions for 27 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills have held running backs to only 67.0 rushing yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry since Week 6. However, they allowed two rushing touchdowns, 6.0 receptions per game and 43.25 receiving yards per game to running backs in those four games.
Bills Analysis: The Bills have a pass-heavy offense. Since Week 6, they've passed on 58% of their 153 plays in a neutral game script. Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen is having a productive season orchestrating the offense. He's averaged 269.2 passing yards per game with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions in nine games. Allen is averaging a career-low 25.9 rushing yards per game. Still, he's punched in six rushing touchdowns and cleared 40 yards in back-to-back games.
Denver's pass defense was sharp in their last four games. So, it's not a cupcake matchup for Allen. Nonetheless, Allen's ceiling is the highest on the slate, and even his sloppier real-life games are usually valuable in fantasy.
Stefon Diggs is the clear-cut No. 1 passing-game weapon. He's averaging 7.8 receptions per game and 92.7 receiving yards per game with seven touchdowns this year. Diggs also had at least six receptions in every game, over 65 receiving yards in eight of nine contests and a touchdown reception on six receptions and 58 receiving yards in his yardage-outlier game.
Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir have stepped up as reliable ancillary weapons in Buffalo's previous two games. While Diggs had 19 targets, 15 receptions, 156 receiving yards and one touchdown since Week 8, Kincaid had 18, 15, 146 and one, and Shakir had 10, 10, 149 and zero.
Denver's numbers against tight ends should be taken with a grain of salt since they've played Travis Kelce twice. However, it's not a terrible matchup for Kincaid, either. They coughed up seven receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns to Cole Kmet. Denver also ceded at least four receptions to three tight ends other than Kelce and Kmet this season.
Still, James Cook has the best matchup among Buffalo's skill-position players. The Broncos have allowed 108.5 rushing yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 6.75 receptions per game and 42.0 receiving yards per game to running backs in their last four games.
Can Cook take advantage of the matchup? That's not a guarantee. Still, the second-year running back had 75% of Buffalo's backfield's rush share in their last three games, rushing 33 times for 143 scoreless yards. Cook also had eight targets, eight receptions, 71 receiving yards and one touchdown reception since Week 7. Finally, Denver's opponents have rushed on 45% of their 160 plays in a neutral game script since Week 5.
Final Thoughts: Allen is in tier one for the Captain/MVP spot. However, Wilson and Kincaid are intriguing Captain alternatives, and Shakir is worth a dart or two at that spot for gamers entering many lineups. Balanced lineups are my favorite construction, but Bills or Broncos leaning are also rock-solid options.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
