While we did well with our Week 9 smash starts and cash game options, the Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) plays did not go as well.
That will inevitably happen at times because these players are riskier by nature. We aim to recommend high-variance players that could go off or completely tank our lineups. That’s how GPPs work, which motivates us to do better this week.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this Week 10 slate!
NFL Week 9 DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks
The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 10:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Jared Goff (QB – DET): $6,400 at LAC
We’ve been using Jared Goff at home for the last two years, but this is one of the rare times we’re willing to use him on the road. The Detroit quarterback has scored at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his last six outings. That’s the upside you want from a GPP play, and one of those upside games could be in play against LA. The Chargers are surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers this season. This 49-point total is also the highest of the week, and it could be the shootout of the weekend!
Sam Howell (QB – WAS): $5,900 at SEA
Sam Howell is extremely inconsistent, but he’s showcased some high upside in this Eric Bienemy offense. He’s scored at least 17 DraftKings points in all but two games this season and is averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per outing. That’s awesome from a sub-$6K player, and this matchup has shootout written all over it. Seattle ranks 25th in yardage surrendered, and this 46-point total tells the whole story.
FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke (QB – ATL): $7,000 at ARI
Taylor Heinicke has always been a slinger when he’s given the opportunity, and we’re willing to use him in a matchup like this. Let’s start there, with Arizona allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. That makes Heinicke an intriguing option because of this $7K price tag, especially since he’s averaging nearly 40 attempts per game when he’s in there as a starter.
Geno Smith (QB – SEA): $6,900 vs. WAS
It’s been a terrible season for Geno Smith, but he is too good to sit below $7,000. He was close to $8K at times last season and still has the weapons to be an elite quarterback. We’re willing to take the risk in a GPP because Washington allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. If this game is the shootout we expect, this could be the optimal stack on this slate.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA): $6,800 vs. WAS
Kenneth Walker has been woeful over the last two weeks, losing touches to Zach Charbonnet. That will have him rostered less than he should be because this was a top-five back in the opening two months of the season. He was also the top back in the second half of last season and is still one of the most talented runners in the NFL. Being a 6.5-point home favorite only adds to his intrigue because it’s a positive game script against a 23rd-ranked Commanders rush defense.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB): $6,500 at PIT
Aaron Jones scored nearly 30 fantasy points in Week 1, but a hamstring strain ruined the next two months. The good news is that Jones got 20 carries last week, scoring 19 DK points in Week 9. We know he can be one of the best backs in the NFL with a full workload, and we’re willing to take the risk against Pittsburgh. The Steelers own a 25th OPRK against opposing backs this season.
FanDuel
Najee Harris (RB – PIT): $6,500 vs. GB
It’s been a rough season for Najee Harris, but he’s still the leadback for the Steelers. That makes him a good value at just $6,500, receiving at least 14 carries in five of his last six outings. He also has at least 14 FanDuel points in two of his previous three outings and could reach that against Green Bay. The Packers have posted a 23rd OPRK against opposing running backs this season.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN): $6,200 vs. NOS
Here we are with another inefficient runner. What we love about Alexander Mattison is his role, receiving at least 16 carries in three of his last four games. That should be his floor as we advance because he’s no longer splitting carries with the injured Cam Akers. Any player who could get 20-25 touches should never be $6,200, especially since the Saints are surrendering 4.4 yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): $6,800 vs. WAS
Many people will think DK Metcalf is struggling since he had just one catch last week, but that’s not the case. DK actually scored at least 11 DraftKings points every game before that rare dud, despite Smith’s struggles. We love that in a matchup with Washington, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – TEN): $6,000 at TB
DeAndre Hopkins has been all over the map, but he looks like a different player with Will Levis behind center. In the two games since he’s taken over, Hopkins averages 24 DK points per game. That’s the stud we’ve seen in the past, and it should continue since he’s got a team target share just below 30%. Tampa Bay is a tremendous matchup, too, allowing over 400 passing yards per game in their last two outings.
FanDuel
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): $6,800 vs. WAS
It’s tough to pick between Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but both of them are intriguing options in this magnificent matchup. We already discussed how terrible Washington has been against opposing pass-catchers, and both could feast in this shootout. Lockett is averaging 7.5 targets per game since struggling in the opener, and that sort of workload makes him way too cheap against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU): $4,900 at CIN
Dalton Schultz went off with the rest of the Texans last week. People don’t realize that he’s been one of C.J. Stroud’s top targets over the last month, scoring at least 13 DK points in four of his last five outings. That makes it challenging to fade him below $5K, and the matchup is the icing on the cake. Cincy is surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
FanDuel
Trey McBride (TE – ARI): $5,100 vs. ATL
Now that Kyler Murray is back, this Arizona offense might finally be useful for DFS. That’s great since Trey McBride was starting to break out, receiving at least five targets in four straight games. That directly correlates with an injury to Zach Ertz, and he becomes really tough to fade since Atlanta has a 20th OPRK against opposing tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST: $3,800 vs. GB
Most people will use Dallas against New York, but Pittsburgh is a good pivot. This team is in the top 10 in almost every defensive metric, and they get one of the best possible matchups against the Packers. Green Bay ranks 20th in points scored and 24th in total yardage. The oddsmakers love them, too, because the Steelers enter this matchup as a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 37-point total.
FanDuel
New Orleans Saints D/ST: $4,200 at MIN
Joshua Dobbs was the hero of Week 10, but this offense is a shell of itself. They’re missing their top quarterback and receiver while losing one of their running backs in Week 9. This team signed their quarterback less than a week ago, and some growing pains are inevitable. We love that against New Orleans, who rank top 10 in nearly every defensive category.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
