The Dolphins and Chiefs will open Sunday with a projected shootout in Germany. The points and offensive production should be plentiful. Both teams have elite, high-salaried players gamers should mix into their showdown lineups. Fortunately, both teams have a few values to offset the high-salaried studs. It should be a fun showdown contest.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -2.5
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Miami's offense has electrifying playmakers and an accurate triggerman, and they've leaned heavily into the pass. According to RotoViz's pace app, they've passed on a whopping 64% of their 132 plays in a neutral game script since Week 5.
Tua Tagovailoa is thriving in his second season in Mike McDaniel's offense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the lefty is first in passing yards per game (302.0), first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.41 ANY/A) and tied for first in touchdown passes (18). He's done an outstanding job of getting the ball out quickly while still chucking it deep to his speedy wideouts.
Tagovailoa is a good pick on this slate. However, he's not a must-use option since Kansas City's pass defense isn't a pushover. In the Chiefs' previous four games, they've allowed just 188 passing yards per game, seven touchdown passes and recorded four interceptions. Tua can overcome a challenging matchup, but McDaniel might not force it.
Tyreek Hill is the most exciting pick in Miami's passing attack and their offense in general. Hill is tied for eighth in receptions per game (7.6), first in receiving yards per game (126.8) and first in receiving touchdowns (eight) this season. Hill has scored at least one touchdown in seven of eight contests and had three receptions and 72 scrimmage yards in his worst game of the year. Taking Hill out of a game is easier said than done.
Jaylen Waddle isn't in the same stratosphere as Hill. Still, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Waddle had 37 targets, 25 receptions, 270 receiving yards, 2.39 Yards per Route (Y/RR) and three receiving touchdowns in his previous four games, running the second-most routes (113) on the team as one of only three players to eclipse 100.
Cedrick Wilson is a rotational player in Miami's top-heavy passing attack. Since Week 5, he's third on the Dolphins in receiving yards (101) on the sixth-most routes (49) on the club. Additionally, Wilson's alignment will help him maximize his ancillary role.
According to The 33rd Team, Waddle, Hill and Wilson have slot rates of 61.7%, 61.9% and 75.8% this year, respectively. Kansas City's secondary is more giving to slots than to perimeter wide receivers. Again, per The 33rd Team, the Chiefs have allowed 10.5 DraftKings points per game and 8.4 FanDuel points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 5. Yet, Kansas City has coughed up 20.1 DK and 15.8 FD points per game to slot wideouts during that four-game stretch.
If McDaniel chooses the path of least resistance in this game, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson could be leaned on more than usual. Since Week 5, the Chiefs have allowed 95.8 rushing yards per game at 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. They also ceded 4.0 receptions per game, 21.8 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns (one rushing and two receiving) to the position during those four games.
Mostert is the top back for the Dolphins. However, he's working through an ankle injury, even though he's not on the injury report. Mostert had the highest snap share (56%) and handled 65% of the team's backfield rushing share last week, toting the rock 13 times for 46 yards and one touchdown. Mostert also ran a backfield-high 24 routes in Week 8 but wasn't targeted. He's the top option in the backfield, but his salary isn't ideal if he gives up more work to his reserves.
Wilson debuted this year in Week 7 but played only 14% of Miami's snaps and had zero rush attempts, one target, one reception and four receiving yards. Wilson had a 25% snap share, handled 25% of the backfield's rush share and ran 10 routes in Week 8, turning his playing time into five rush attempts, 23 rushing yards, two targets, two receptions and 14 receiving yards. He was a more efficient runner than Mostert and led the backfield in receiving yards last week.
Salvon Ahmed was also used but tallied negative three yards on two rush attempts, 13 routes, three targets and three receptions. Ahmed could be squeezed from the rotation, and if Wilson absorbs his vacated opportunities, he'll be a steal at his salary.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes had his best game of the 2023 season in Week 7, carving up the Chargers for 424 passing yards, four touchdown passes and one interception, chipping in 29 rushing yards. He had his worst game of the season in Week 8, with the broadcasters noting he was playing with the flu. Mahomes had just 240 passing yards, zero touchdowns and tossed two interceptions against the Broncos.
Was the flu entirely to blame for his lackluster effort? Maybe. Divisional games are also tricky, and the Broncos saw him only 17 days earlier. Mahomes is a good bet to bounce back, and the betting line indicates the line makers and gamblers agree. The Dolphins haven't played a murderer's row of quarterbacks lately but allowed 215.5 passing yards per game, five passing touchdowns, 14.3 rushing yards per game and one rushing touchdown in their previous four games.
Miami has allowed three quarterbacks to exceed 300 passing yards this season, and Josh Allen (320 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown) and Jalen Hurts (279 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 21 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown) destroyed them. Jalen Ramsey didn't play until last week and added a game-changing talent to the secondary, but his absence doesn't entirely absolve Miami's defense from getting shredded by Allen and Hurts. Mahomes can be the next stud quarterback to light them up and is a must-use player on this slate.
Travis Kelce is Kansas City's only reliable pass-catching weapon, and Mahomes is force-feeding him the football. In the Chiefs' last four games, Kelce had a 27.1% target share, 309 air yards, six red-zone targets, 37 receptions (9.25 per game), 428 receiving yards (107.0 per game) and two touchdowns.
The stud tight end should maintain his momentum, albeit with the risk the Dolphins attempt to slow him down with Ramsey. Otherwise, the matchup is dreamy. Miami has allowed 6.0 receptions per game, 70.8 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 5.
Noah Gray can also take advantage of the matchup. Since Week 5, Gray was fifth on the Chiefs in routes (88) and had seven targets, seven receptions and 68 receiving yards. The third-year pro is a low-volume player in the offense. However, Gray had a touchdown in Week 4 and had multiple receptions or over 30 receiving yards in five of seven games, with Kelce healthy this season. Those aren't exciting marks, but he's flashed enough to make the most of this matchup and provide DFS value relative to his punt salary.
Kansas City has a deep rotation at wide receiver. Nevertheless, Rashee Rice made the most of his opportunities early in his rookie campaign and carved out a larger role lately. In the last four weeks, he was fourth on the Chiefs in routes (90), second in targets (20), second in receptions (17), second in receiving yards (221) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (two).
Andy Reid has deployed his big-bodied rookie wideout as a jumbo slot, using him there a nearly nice 68.9% of the time. Rice can feast from the slot this week. Miami has allowed 20.5 DK points per game and 15.7 FD points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 5, much higher than the 13.0 DK points per game and 9.8 FD points per game permitted to perimeter wide receivers.
Justin Watson can also benefit from the Dolphins allowing more points to the slot than to perimeter wide receivers. He has a 51.5% slot rate this year and is efficient as a vertical weapon. Watson averages 21 routes per game and has 12 receptions for 261 yards, 21.8 yards per reception, 1.78 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and a 23.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this season. Since Watson is used deep, the throws have a lower completion rate and create a risk for him to bust. Still, Watson had multiple receptions and over 40 receiving yards in five of seven games this season.
Final Thoughts: The Sunday morning showdown slate has more Captain options than most. Mahomes, Kelce and Hill are in the first tier for Captain/MVP picks, and they're the only MVP choices since FD doesn't increase the salary for the MVP spot. Waddle and Mostert are in the second tier, and Rice is in the third tier for Captain.
Balanced lineups are my preferred construction, but slightly unbalanced leaning toward the Chiefs or Dolphins are stellar options, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
