This week’s NFL DFS main slate has a decided lack of elite quarterbacks because of byes, the island games and injuries to starters. The unique quarterback dynamic could lead to chalkier options at the top than usual. It’s an interesting slate to navigate, but this piece will narrow the player pool to a manageable number of selections.
Week 9 Matchups
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -4.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Vikings Analysis: Rookie fifth-round pick Jaren Hall will start for the Vikings this week, destroying their DFS value for Week 9.
Falcons Analysis: Since Week 5, Kyle Pitts is second in air yards (288), 13th in target share (19.6%) and seventh in receiving yards (212) among tight ends. He also had 17 receptions and one touchdown reception in those four contests. In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pitts was fifth in Yards per Route Run (2.00 Y/RR) among 29 tight ends targeted at least 10 times since Week 5.
The matchup isn't too shabby, either. According to The 33rd Team, the Vikings have allowed 5.8 receptions per game, 51.8 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 5. Pitts is an intriguing GPP option, and his floor and ceiling will rise if Drake London can't suit up.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -5.5
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Since Week 5, DK Metcalf is second in air yards per game (149.5) and first in red-zone targets per game (3.5) among wide receivers. The combination of air yards and looks in the red zone is dreamy and portends well for an eventual blow-up game for Metcalf.
As it stands, his 4.5 receptions per game, 67.3 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns were rock-solid but a bigger day is in the offing if he maintains his vertical and scoring-territory usage. The Ravens have a stout defense, but big, physical receivers have given them trouble this year. Namely, George Pickens (6-130-1), Tee Higgins (8-89-2), Nico Collins (6-80-0) and Michael Pittman (9-77-0) had success against the Ravens this year. Metcalf is the archetype of wideout that's played well against Baltimore.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 11 targets, seven receptions, 99 receiving yards and two touchdowns in two games since Seattle's bye. The rookie receiver had season-highs for targets (seven) and receiving yards (63) in Week 7 without Metcalf but crashed back to four targets, three receptions and 36 receiving yards in Week 8 with a returning Metcalf.
It wasn't all bad for JSN last week, though. He ran 25 routes, the third-most on the team, and had a touchdown reception. If the road underdog Seahawks are in a negative game script, they might be forced to use more three-wideout personnel groupings and air it out enough for Smith-Njigba to provide DFS gamers with value. Nevertheless, he's highlighted in this piece only as a game-stacking option as a bring-back pick from a Ravens stack.
Ravens Analysis: Sadly, Lamar Jackson couldn't duplicate a big game in Week 7 at home against the Lions with a DFS-friendly showing in the desert against the Cardinal in Week 8. It's a rebound spot this week against a defense that's allowed some eruptions to quarterbacks, such as 320-plus yard passing games to Jared Goff (323 yards and three touchdowns), Matthew Stafford (334 passing yards) and Andy Dalton (361 passing yards and two touchdowns).
In addition, Daniel Jones rumbled for 66 yards and Joshua Dobbs ran for 43 and a touchdown against the Seahawks. Jackson's ceiling is sky-high, making him a dreamy GPP pick this week, likely on a lower percentage of rosters than the two quarterbacks opposing each other in an NFC East matchup in the afternoon window of games.
Baltimore's passing game is funneled through Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. In the team's last four games, Andrews had a 22.3% target share, 220 air yards, 18 receptions, 237 receiving yards, seven red-zone targets and three receiving touchdowns. Andrews is projected as the TE1 in DFS this week.
Flowers had a 26.4% target share, 303 air yards, 20 receptions, 217 receiving yards, four red-zone targets and one touchdown reception in those games. The rookie wideout is an optimizer darling this week, projecting as the WR14 at both DFS providers, with the WR7 value score (WR7V) at DraftKings and the WR1V at FanDuel.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -8.0
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Kyler Murray might make his season debut this week in a challenging matchup. He could have rust to shake off, and Arizona's implied total is tiny. If he doesn't start, Clayton Tune will make his first NFL start. The Cardinals aren't an enticing source of DFS options this week.
Browns Analysis: Jerome Ford wasn't a limited practice participant until Friday in Week 8 but opened the week as a limited participant in Week 9. So, that's a step in the right direction for his recovery from an ankle injury. The Browns limited Ford's touches last week before unleashing him in the fourth quarter.
Assuming he's healthier this week, Ford should be busy earlier in the contest in a plus matchup. The Cardinals have coughed up 115.8 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 3.8 receptions per game and 19.8 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 5. The second-year running back can beat the Cards on the ground and through the air.
In five games without Nick Chubb, Ford has averaged 70.8 scrimmage yards per game and 2.4 receptions per game with three touchdowns. The game script should be ideal for him as well since the Browns are sizable favorites.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -3.0
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Stafford's thumb injury will either sideline him or potentially hinder his play this week. Gamers can fade the slumping Rams in DFS this week.
Packers Analysis: In two games since Green Bay's bye in Week 6, Jayden Reed is one of three players to run at least 60 routes for the Packers. The rookie wideout had 10 targets, seven receptions, a team-high 104 receiving yards and one touchdown in those contests. Reed doesn't have a massive ceiling, but his role in the offense is significant enough to deliver value at his punt salary.
Luke Musgrave is atop Green Bay's depth chart at tight end. He ran 59 routes in the previous two games, and Green Bay's other tight ends combined for 35. Additionally, Musgrave's 59 routes since Week 7 trailed only Christian Watson's 69, Romeo Doubs's 66 and Reed's 61.
The rookie tight end had just eight targets, six receptions and 39 receiving yards in those two games. Still, he's a matchup-driven punt against the Rams. Since Week 5, the Rams have permitted 5.5 receptions per game, 72.0 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns to tight ends.
The Packers are home favorites against a banged-up Stafford or Brett Rypien. It's an ideal setup, and they have the DST3V at both DFS websites this week.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans
Spread: HOU -2.5
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Texans are stout against the run, and Tampa Bay's running attack is inefficient. Oddly, neither the matchup nor the Buccaneers' inability to establish an effective running game is necessarily terrible for Rachaad White's DFS outlook.
Instead, White can make hay as a receiving weapon. Houston has allowed 5.3 receptions per game, 49.3 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 5. The second-year running back's best attribute is his receiving prowess, and he had 13 targets, 13 receptions and 135 receiving yards in the past two games. White isn't an attractive option at FD, but he has the RB3V at DK.
Texans Analysis: Nico Collins and Tank Dell have a cushy matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Bucs have allowed the most DK (38.4) and FD (28.9) points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 5. Collins and Dell have had 59.1% and 63.0% slot rates this year, respectively, per The 33rd Team.
Collins has demonstrated a higher ceiling and been more consistent, albeit with a few duds, than Dell this season. The third-year pro is projected as the WR8 and has the WR4V at FD, and he's the WR9 with the WR5V at DK. However, Dell is an intriguing pick, too. The rookie wideout caught a touchdown in two games this year, cleared 55 receiving yards three times and had at least three receptions five times in six contests.
Devin Singletary is only a viable option if Dameon Pierce is out. Volume is the king at running back, and even volume in a lousy matchup is noteworthy. Moreover, Tampa Bay's defense allowed 7.7 receptions per game and 50.0 receiving yards per game to running backs in Vita Vea's last three healthy contests (Week 4 through Week 7). Obviously, targets would be better for Singletary's fantasy outlook than rush attempts.
Still, Motor should handle the bulk of Houston's running back rushing opportunities if Pierce is out. In addition, the Texans have a run-heavy approach. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Texans ran on 54% of their 54 plays in a neutral game script in Week 8, their first game after their bye. They also ran on 51% of their 132 plays in a neutral game script in their final three games before their bye. The sledding will be tough, but Singletary should chip in some rushing production to complement his check-down receptions. Like the running back on the other side of this contest, Singletary is more appealing at DK's point-per-reception (PPR) platform than at FD's half-PPR platform.
Game: Washington Commanders at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -3.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Logan Thomas is having his best season since a breakout 2020 campaign. The veteran tight end is averaging 4.1 receptions per game and 40.0 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns in seven games this season. Thomas had at least three receptions and 40-plus receiving yards in five of seven contests, producing two receptions for 22 yards and a touchdown in one of the outliers.
The 32-year-old has a helpful matchup this week. The Patriots have allowed 5.5 receptions per game, 54.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 5. Thomas could also have a heightened role in the offense this week since Curtis Samuel has a toe injury, putting his status for this game in doubt. The veteran tight end is a useful source of salary relief at DK, where he has the TE1V.
Patriots Analysis: The Commanders gutted their defensive line at the trade line, shipping Montez Sweat and Chase Young out of town for draft picks. The Patriots are the first team to benefit from facing their suddenly unimposing defensive line and already lousy secondary.
Sadly, Rhamondre Stevenson hasn't built on his sensational sophomore campaign in 2022. Nonetheless, he's New England's top running back. Since week 5, Stevenson has handled 52.9% of the backfield's rush share and ran 72 routes versus 35 for Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson has also tallied at least 80 scrimmage yards in two of his past three games and had at least five receptions twice.
Washington's defense held running backs to 85.8 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry in their previous four games, but those marks could slip without Sweat and Young in their defensive line rotation. The Commanders also allowed 4.5 receptions per game, 34.0 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 5, and Stevenson has the pass-catching chops to get the better of them through the air. Stevenson has the RB1V at DK but also has value at FD.
Stevenson isn't the only Patriot with the top value score at their position on DK. Instead, Demario Douglas has the WR1V at DK. The diminutive rookie wide receiver had 13 targets, nine receptions, 79 receiving yards, two rushes and 24 rushing yards in the past two games. The Patriots will need him more than ever with No. 1 wide receiver Kendrick Bourne on IR.
Sam Howell was sacked only once last week. He got the ball out faster, but it was an outlier performance. The second-year quarterback was sacked at least three times in his other eight professional starts and was sacked at least five times in six contests. The Patriots are favorites at home and can pin their ears back and get after the inexperienced quarterback if he's in predictable passing situations in a negative game script. New England's DST is among the best bargains at both DFS providers, sporting the DST4V at DK and the DST1V at FD.
Game: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -7.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Bears Analysis: The Bears have an implied total of 16.75 points. The implied total tells gamers all they need to know about the utility of the Bears in DFS this week.
Saints Analysis: The Saints have leaned on the pass, and the Bears' opponents have attacked them through the air. New Orleans passed on 63% of their 149 plays in a neutral game script since Week 5, and Chicago's opponents passed on 61% of their 85 plays in a neutral game script during that timeframe.
New Orleans's pass-heavy attack has led to Derek Carr eclipsing 300 passing yards in his previous three games. Carr doesn't add value as a runner, and touchdown variance wasn't his friend during his yardage heater. He's passed for only four touchdowns since Week 6. Still, touchdowns are fickle, and the matchup is good. The Bears have allowed 267.8 passing yards per game and seven touchdown passes since Week 5. As a result, Carr is a sweet value pick.
Alvin Kamara is the top option from the Saints. He's a workhorse. The 28-year-old running back had at least 22 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in his last four games. Kamara had surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in his past three games, and he averages 7.8 receptions per game this season.
Kamara's receiving skills will help him immensely since the Bears are stifling running backs on the ground but struggling against them through the air. Chicago has allowed 38.0 rushing yards per game, 2.5 yards per carry, 6.3 receptions per game, 65.8 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 5. Thus, Kamara is a good bet to torch them as a receiver. He's a stellar stacking partner with Carr and projects as the RB1 in DFS, obviously, making him a worthy standalone pick, too.
Rashid Shaheed has a boom-or-bust profile as New Orleans's No. 3 wide receiver. Thankfully, the Bears are an ideal matchup for coaxing a boom week out of Shaheed. First, according to PFF, the Bears play zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate this year and Shaheed leads the Saints in receiving yards (359) against zone coverage despite running only 190 routes versus 235 routes and 330 receiving yards for Michael Thomas and 239 and 354 for Chris Olave this season.
Second, Shaheed has a 57.5% slot rate this year, and Chicago has allowed the ninth-most DK (23.4) and tied for the eighth-most FD (17.7) points per game allowed to slot wide receivers since Week 5. It's a good week to take a stab at Shaheed in GPPs.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
Spread: IND -2.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor has hit his stride after a ramp-up period. He had a season-high 61% snap share last week after setting a previous season-high at 50% in Week 7. Taylor parlayed his uptick in playing time into 30 rushes, 170 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six targets, four receptions and 47 receiving yards in those two games.
The electrifying running back has a mouthwatering matchup for a slate-breaking performance this week. The Panthers have allowed 136.3 rushing yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry, six rushing touchdowns, 4.3 receptions per game, 29.3 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 5. Taylor can succeed even if he doesn't siphon more work from Zack Moss, but Taylor could explode with another slight step forward. So, Taylor is projected as the RB4 at both DFS providers, with the RB4V at DK.
Panthers Analysis: Head coach Frank Reich handed play-calling duties over to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown during Carolina's bye in Week 7. After the one-week breather, the team passed on 58% of their 60 plays in a neutral game script in Brown's play-calling debut.
Bryce Young had his best game as a pro, as measured by quarterback rating. The rookie signal-caller completed 71.0% of his passes for 235 yards and one touchdown. It was an encouraging game and could be the sign of a post-bye rookie bump. Additionally, he's had his three highest passing yardage outputs in his past three games. Young might be putting things together in his rookie campaign. He's the cheapest viable quarterback this week and has the QB1V at DK.
Adam Thielen is the apple of Young's eye. The veteran wideout has bounced back this season by moving into the slot, sporting a career-high 74.8% slot rate. Thielen is on a roll, exceeding 70 receiving yards in five straight games and catching at least seven passes in six consecutive contests. Furthermore, he led the Panthers in targets (11), receptions (eight) and receiving yards (72) out of their bye. Volume-hog Thielen is projected as the WR3 in DFS in Week 9.
Jonathan Mingo has settled in as Carolina's No. 2 wideout. In Carolina's last four games, he was second on the team in routes (115), tied for second in targets (15), second in receptions (11) and second in receiving yards (131). Additionally, Mingo had his best game as a pro in Week 8, setting a new personal best for receiving yards with 62 on five targets and four receptions. The game could be a blip on the radar. However, Mingo might also be primed for an uptick in production from now on. He's not an exciting standalone pick, but he is an interesting stacking choice.
Game: New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -1.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Giants Analysis: Daniel Jones has fully practiced this week and should start this week, barring an unexpected setback for his neck injury. Starting tackles Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal might also play this week, providing needed reinforcements on the offensive line.
A healthier offensive line would be optimal for Saquon Barkley's outlook, and Jones will save the Giants from starting non-NFL caliber QB Tommy DeVito. The offense should continue to run through Barkley, though. Big Blue's do-it-all back has averaged 27.0 rush attempts, 99.3 rushing yards per game, 3.3 receptions per game and 15.3 receiving yards per game, with one receiving touchdown in his last three games.
The Raiders don't have a defense to dissuade the Giants from force-feeding Barkley. Teams have run on 46% of their 168 plays in a neutral game script against Las Vegas since Week 5. Moreover, the Raiders have yielded 130.3 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, six rushing touchdowns, 4.8 receptions per game, 33.5 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 5. It's wheels up for Barkley, and he's the RB2 in DFS this week, with the RB3V at FD.
Big Blue's DST has the highest value score on DK this week. The Raiders understandably fired Josh McDaniels and benched Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but the transition is unlikely to be seamless to a first-time head coach and a rookie fourth-round pick at quarterback. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Aidan O'Connell has an 11.9% sack rate and a 3.8% interception rate. Those marks would be the third highest and tied for the third highest, respectively, if O'Connell were a qualified quarterback this year. It's a favorable setup for New York's defense this week.
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders scored just 17 points in O'Connell's lone start this year. Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Josh Jacobs have the skills to overcome inconsistent play at quarterback. Still, that doesn't make them good DFS investments this week.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -3.0
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys have passed on 62% of their 109 plays in neutral game scripts since Week 4, which meshes perfectly with Philadelphia's pass-funnel tendencies. The Eagles' opponents have passed on 69% of their 188 plays in a neutral game script since Week 5, tying for the highest rate during that period.
Dak Prescott hasn't been flawless this year in Dallas's pass-happy offense. However, he's cooking with gasoline, rebounding from a beatdown against the 49ers in Week 5. In two subsequent contests, he's passed for 576 yards, five touchdowns and one interception, adding 11 rush attempts, 59 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown for good measure.
Prescott has also carved up the Eagles in recent meetings. He completed 27 of 35 passes for 347 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and rushed for 41 yards against his NFC East foe in Week 16 last year. Prescott also lit up the Eagles for 533 passing yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games in 2021. Prescott will likely be chalky this week, but he's an excellent selection and is projected as the QB3.
CeeDee Lamb is the most exciting piece from the Cowboys in a cushy matchup. Dallas's No. 1 wide receiver exploded for 19 receptions, 275 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns and 12 rushing yards in his last two games, besting 100 receiving yards in both contests.
The Eagles are unlikely to slow his roll. Philadelphia has allowed the second-most DK (27.9) and the second-most FD (21.3) points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 5, and Lamb has played the slot 65.6% of the time this season. Lamb can also cook from the perimeter against a defense that allowed the fifth-most DK (20.6) and the fifth-most FD (16.4) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 5.
Jake Ferguson is the cheapest useful piece from the Cowboys. He ran the second-most routes (89) for the Cowboys and had eight receptions, 90 receiving yards and one touchdown in their last three games. The second-year tight end has the TE1V at FD and the TE3V at DK in Week 9.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles gave Jalen Hurts the bag in the offseason, and they're treating him like a franchise quarterback by putting the offense on his shoulders. Philadelphia has passed on 59% of their 242 plays in a neutral game script since Week 5. Hurts was up to the tall task of carrying the offense, passing for 1,181 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games.
Hurts should take to the air at a high rate again this week. Dallas's opponents have passed on 60% of their plays in a neutral game script since Week 4. Hurts has passed for over 275 yards in six straight contests and can get the job done through the air against the Cowboys.
But, of course, Hurts's passing is only part of his value. The dual-threat quarterback has averaged 35.0 rushing yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns through eight games this year. Hurts can pile up points in a potential shootout and is projected as the QB1 in DFS this week.
DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are above-average passing game weapons, but A.J. Brown is the alpha in the passing attack. He's ripped off six consecutive games with more than 125 receiving yards. During his unprecedented heater, Brown has averaged 8.2 receptions per game, 138.5 receiving yards and scored five receiving touchdowns.
Brown has a legitimate chance to extend his streak of at least 125 receiving yards to seven games against Dallas's man-heavy defense. Per PFF, the Cowboys have played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate this year, and Brown has eviscerated man coverage for 4.34 Y/RR this season. He's a no-brainer pick in cash games and an outstanding selection in GPPs. Brown is projected as the WR1 at both DFS outlets, with the WR2V at FD.
Julio Jones has played two games for the Eagles and hasn't made waves. He did score a touchdown last week, though. The veteran wideout has played 48.4% of his snaps in the slot, and the Cowboys have allowed the 12th-most DK (20.3) and tied for the 10th-most FD (16.3) points per game allowed to slot wide receivers since Week 5. Jones's bust potential is high, but he's a sneaky contrarian value pick for gamers stacking this contest.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
