Sunday’s NFL Week 12 DFS main slate has 10 games. One game in the late afternoon window is the most exciting to stack and is filled with excellent DFS selections. However, two other games are intriguing game-stacking choices. The seven remaining games have a handful of one-offs or skinny-stacking appeal.
Week 12 Matchups
Game: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: NO -1.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Saints Analysis: Rashid Shaheed isn't a high-volume player but averages a tidy 16.9 yards per reception this season and could be in store for an uptick in playing time without Michael Thomas. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Shaheed ran the third-most routes (38) on the Saints in their last contest in Week 10, just four fewer than Chris Olave and A.T. Perry ran.
Perry would also be an intriguing option, but the Falcons are a dreadful matchup for perimeter wideouts. Fortunately for Shaheed, he has a cushy matchup from the slot. According to The 33rd Team, Shaheed has a 57.1% slot rate this year. Since Week 8, the Falcons are tied for the fifth-most DraftKings (23.7) points per game allowed and have ceded the fifth-most FanDuel (20.7) points per game to slots. According to the lineup optimizer, Shaheed has the WR2 value score (WR2V) at DK and is tied for the WR9V at FD.
The Saints are a viable DST choice on FD, where their salary is palatable. Desmond Ridder will start for the Falcons this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the second-year quarterback has had the eighth-highest sack rate (9.2%) among qualified quarterbacks this year. Ridder has also thrown six interceptions and lost six fumbles in nine games (eight starts).
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are only slight underdogs at home, and Derek Carr hasn't played flawlessly this season. The veteran quarterback has taken 21 sacks in 10 games. Additionally, per PFF, Carr has had 10 turnover-worthy plays. Atlanta's DST is the cheapest viable option on DK.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: PIT -1.0
Over/Under: 34.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: Jaylen Warren has gone nuclear lately. Since Week 9, he's first in rushing yards (318) and second in yards per rush attempt (9.1), second in yards before contact per attempt (5.5 YBCON/ATT) and third in yards after contact per attempt (3.6 YACON/ATT) among running backs with at least 20 attempts. The uber-efficient Warren is underpriced at both DFS outlets against a mediocre run defense in what projects to be a close contest.
Bengals Analysis: Starting Jake Browning is a monumental dropoff from Joe Burrow, crippling Cincinnati's offense and DFS value.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Spread: JAC -1.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The AFC South battle between the Jaguars and Texans is a potential shootout, making it a compelling pivot from another potential shootout in the late afternoon window. Trevor Lawrence is the triggerman for the betting favorite in the game, and his matchup is outstanding. According to The 33rd Team, the Texans have allowed the eighth-most DK (19.5) and the eighth-most FD (19.5) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 8.
Lawrence is coming off his best game of the year, completing 24 of 32 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns while rumbling for 17 yards and two touchdowns. Sadly, it's been an up-and-down campaign for the third-year pro. However, his highs have coincided with having an entirely healthy wide receiving corps. In Week 1, Week 2, Week 5 and Week 11, Lawrence completed 95 of 142 passes (66.9%) for 1,034 yards (258.5 per game), five touchdowns and one interception.
Those were the four games when Zay Jones was active. Calvin Ridley was also lights out in those games. The veteran wide receiver had team highs in routes (145), targets (35), receptions (24), receiving yards (358) and receiving touchdowns (three) in that four-game period, reaching triple-digit receiving yards three times.
Christian Kirk was lousy in the opener but excelled in the other three games with Jones active. When tossing out the opener from the four-game sample, Kirk had 26 targets, 20 receptions (6.7 per game) and 236 receiving yards (78.7 per game) in the other three contests.
Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud plays like an experienced all-pro rather than a rookie. He's leading the NFL in passing yards per game (296.2) and 10th in passing touchdowns (17) despite the Texans leaning heavily on the ground game earlier this season. However, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Texans have had a 57% pass rate since Week 8. Stroud lit up the Jaguars for 280 passing yards and two touchdowns on just 30 pass attempts in Week 3 and can get the better of them again this week.
Tank Dell is Houston's most productive wideout and on the same wavelength as Stroud. He's not hitting a rookie wall, either. In four games since Houston's bye, Dell has had 39 targets, 23 receptions, 335 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns.
Gamers shouldn't overlook Nico Collins. The breakout wideout has also been heavily involved in three games since the club's bye. In those games, his 22 targets were the second-most on the Texans. Collins had 14 receptions for 149 yards and one touchdown reception in his last three games.
Dell and Collins also have a good matchup. The former has a 62.4% slot rate this season, and the latter has a 58.1% slot rate. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have tied for the 13th-most DK (19.4) and allowed the 11th-most FD (16.7) points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 8. Gamers can double-stack either side of this game and use a bring-back from the opponent. They can also build skinny game stacks to complement another game stack. Regardless, this is an outstanding source of DFS upside in Week 12.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -2.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: Rachaad White isn't an efficient runner. It doesn't matter. The second-year running back's role is dreamy. In his last four games, White has handled 75.3% of Tampa Bay's backfield's rush share and ran 107 routes versus 30 for Chase Edmonds and Ke'Shawn Vaughn. In those games, White had 48.3 rushing yards per game, three rushing touchdowns, 4.8 receptions per game, 47.8 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown.
White's calling card is his receiving prowess, and a matchup against the Colts should allow him to strut his stuff. Since Week 8, Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most DK (26.7) points per game, the fourth-most FD (23.5) points per game, 112.7 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, 6.3 receptions per game, 50.7 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving) to running backs. White is the RB8 with the RB2V at DK, and he's the RB10 with the RB6V at FD.
Tampa Bay's DST is the cheapest viable defense on FD. The Buccaneers are an aggressive defense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs have the third-highest blitz rate (38.3%) this season. Conveniently for Tampa Bay, Gardner Minshew has melted in the face of blitzes this season. Minshew is PFF's 34th-ranked passer out of 35 quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 40 times against blitzes this season. In addition, he has had the third-highest turnover-worthy play percentage (5.3 TWP%) from the same sample of quarterbacks.
Colts Analysis: Josh Downs is a matchup-driven suggestion. The rookie wideout has a 78.4% slot rate this year. The Bucs have allowed the most DK (35.3) and the most FD (30.2) points per game to slot wideouts since Week 8. Of course, he hasn't been a slouch, either. Downs is averaging 4.3 receptions per game and 52.3 receiving yards per game with two touchdown receptions. The rookie wideout has the WR7V at both DFS providers in Week 12.
Game: New England Patriots at New York Giants
Spread: NE -3.0
Over/Under: 33.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: New England's DST has a mouthwatering matchup against Tommy DeVito. The rookie undrafted free agent has an unimaginably high 21.6% sack rate and threw three interceptions in four games. The Patriots have the DST2V at DK, and they're tied for the DST3V at FD.
Giants Analysis: DeVito got the better of Washington's pathetic defense last week. Still, he hadn't reached 200 passing yards in three prior contests, and he eradicated Big Blue's DFS value.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -3.5
Over/Under: 37.0
Panthers Analysis: The Panthers have an implied total of 16.75 points this week, and Frank Reich reclaiming play-calling duties last week didn't turn the offense around. They're a DFS wasteland.
Titans Analysis: Derrick Henry was nearly included in this piece. However, Tennessee's run blocking is so lousy that fading King Henry is unlikely to burn DFS gamers.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -1.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Cooper Kupp is trending toward playing after upgrading from not participating in Wednesday's practice to a limited showing on Thursday. Still, Puka Nacua is healthier and is maintaining a DFS-friendly role in the offense after a hot start and Kupp's activation from IR in Week 5. In six games with Kupp healthy, Nacua has had a team-high 30.0% target share, 429 air yards, 30 receptions (5.0 per game), 396 receiving yards (66 per game) and two receiving touchdowns. Nacua is projected as the WR4 at both DFS outlets this week.
Kyren Williams has a favorable matchup in his return from IR this week. The Cardinals are tied for the second-most DK points (27.6) per game and have allowed the second-most FD (25.2) points per game to running backs since Week 8.
Williams was a one-man show in LA's backfield before he was injured. The second-year pro had 85.1% of the backfield's rush share, carrying the ball 97 times for 456 yards and six touchdowns through six games. Furthermore, Williams ran 188 routes versus 16 for Ronnie Rivers, and the former converted his route participation into 23 targets, 13 receptions, 105 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
Head coach Sean McVay might not use Williams in the same bell-cow role in his first game back from his ankle injury. However, the club waived Darrell Henderson and risked losing him to another club earlier in the week before re-signing him to the practice squad. Waiving Henderson would seem to be a positive indication of Williams's outlook this week. Many gamers might want to take a wait-and-see approach with Williams, enhancing the appeal of using him in GPPs.
Cardinals Analysis: Arizona's offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, hasn't wasted time leaning on Kyler Murray's arm. In Murray's two starts this season, the Cardinals have passed on 60% of their plays in neutral game scripts.
The fifth-year pro has averaged an acceptable 231.5 passing yards per game but tossed only one touchdown versus two interceptions. Murray might still be shaking off the rust. The Rams are an outstanding matchup for him to round into pre-injury form. Los Angeles has allowed the 10th-most DK (18.3) and the 10th-most FD (18.3) points per game quarterbacks since Week 8.
Highlighting Murray's passing numbers was also burying the lede. The speedy, diminutive quarterback hasn't shown any ill effects from his knee surgery, rushing for 84 yards and two touchdowns this season. The dual-threat quarterback is a high-upside pick in a possible shootout.
Trey McBride is the apple of Murray's eye. The sensational sophomore has had team highs for targets (16), receptions (13) and receiving yards (174) in Murray's starts this season. The 2021 John Mackey Award (the award for college football's best tight end) winner is blossoming into a top-shelf option at the position and projects as the TE2, with the TE1V at DK and the TE3, with the TE3V at FD in Week 12.
As he's done throughout his young career, Greg Dortch stepped up when his number was called last week. The undersized wideout ran the third-most routes (31) on the team and paced the club in targets (eight), receptions (six) and receiving yards (76) in Week 11.
Michael Wilson hasn't practiced this week after aggravating an existing shoulder injury late last week and missing the game. In addition, Marquise Brown was downgraded from a limited participant in Wednesday's practice to a non-participant on Thursday. If either player is out, Dortch is an elite punt. Moreover, he's even more attractive if both wide receivers are out.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -2.5
Over/Under: 35.5 Points
Browns Analysis: Jerome Ford isn't a workhorse running back. Nevertheless, he's Cleveland's lead running back and their most explosive one, too. In Cleveland's last four games, Ford has had backfield highs in rush share (47.5%), rushing yards (219), 10-plus yard rushes (five), routes (79), targets (14), receptions (nine) and receiving yards (45).
Those modest marks can climb in a Charmin-soft matchup against Denver's pitiful run defense. The Broncos have allowed 125.0 rushing yards per game, 6.1 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 4.3 receptions per game and 18.7 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 8.
David Njoku is another decent DFS option from the Browns. In Dorian Thompson-Robinson's start last week, Njoku had an eye-popping 34.9% target share, seven receptions and 56 receiving yards. Amari Cooper's 18.6% target share was a distant second.
Njoku should be busy again this week in a plus matchup. Since Week 8, the Broncos have allowed the fourth-most DK (18.9) points per game and the fourth-most FD (15.4) points per game to tight ends. As a result, Njoku is the TE6 in DFS this week, with the TE2V at DK and the TE4V at FD.
Broncos Analysis: The Browns game-wrecking defense is a lousy matchup for game manager Russell Wilson, rendering the Broncos an unattractive source of DFS picks.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: KC -9.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Isiah Pacheco has dominated Kansas City's backfield work. In the Chiefs' previous four games, the second-year running back commanded 82.4% of the backfield's rush share, running for 227 yards (56.8 per game). Pacheco also ran 74 routes (58 for Jerick McKinnon) and had 10 targets, eight receptions, 27 receiving yards and one touchdown during that span.
The hard-charging runner has a tasty matchup against the Raiders and should have a good game script since the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites. The Raiders were tied for the eighth-most DK (23.9) and allowed the ninth-most FD (21.3) points per game to running backs since Week 8. They also coughed up 4.6 yards per carry to them and 8.4 yards per reception. So, the Raiders weren't merely victims of volume; they allowed running backs to gash them efficiently.
Justin Watson could not make a somewhat challenging catch in traffic on a perfectly placed ball by Patrick Mahomes on Kansas City's failed fourth-down try on their final offensive play last week. The ending shouldn't overshadow Watson's otherwise notable performance. The field-stretching wide receiver had a team-high 25.6% target share, five receptions, a team-high 53 receiving yards and a touchdown reception in Kansas City's first game after their bye in Week 10.
Watson was also third on the Chiefs in routes (77), second in targets (19), third in receptions (nine) and third in receiving yards (110) on the team in their previous three games. He's a critical part of Kansas City's deep wide receiver rotation and is grossly underpriced at the minimum salary on DK.
Kansas City's defense is a terror for opposing offenses. They've allowed the fifth-fewest yards per play (4.7), forced 14 turnovers, tallied the highest pressure rate (29.0) and recorded the third-most sacks (36) this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. The Chiefs are massive favorites, meaning Aidan O'Connell would be in predictable passing situations if the betting expectations come to fruition, positioning Kansas City's defense to tee off on the rookie signal caller. Thus, Kansas City's DST is the DST2 in DFS this week, with the DSTV at DK.
Raiders Analysis: Michael Mayer hasn't matched the production of the two rookie tight ends drafted before him this season. Still, he's flashed his potential, reeling in four receptions for 46 yards last week, catching a touchdown in Week 10 and amassing five receptions for 75 yards in Week 6. Additionally, the rookie has distanced himself from Austin Hooper, running 68 routes compared to 30 for the veteran in Antonio Pierce's three games as the interim head coach. Mayer is the only palatable punt at tight end this week but, predictably, has a low floor.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -3.5
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Bills Analysis: Josh Allen has had some downs this year and is tied for the most interceptions (12) this season entering Week 12. Yet, the dual-threat quarterback is also eighth in passing yards per game (261.4) and first in passing touchdowns. Allen has also rushed for 23.7 yards per game and seven touchdowns.
He was brilliant last week in new offensive coordinator Joe Brady's first game calling the offense. Allen shredded the Jets for 275 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, one interception (on a hail mary to end the first half) and 15 rushing yards in Week 11. Allen will be busy for the underdog Bills against Philadelphia's pass-funnel defense. The Eagles have faced an NFL-high 68% pass rate in neutral game scripts and yielded the third-most DK (25.4) points per game and the third-most FD (25.4) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 8. Allen is the QB2 in DFS this week.
Stefon Diggs is Buffalo's No. 1 pass-catching weapon. He's had a dryspell lately by his lofty standards but still was second on the Bills in routes (145), tied for first in targets (32), second in receptions (22), third in receiving yards (217) and had one touchdown reception in Buffalo's previous four games. Diggs is also leading the Bills in targets (110), receptions per game (7.0), receiving yards per game (81.4) and touchdown receptions (seven) this season.
Diggs has a bounce-back matchup this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia was tied for the seventh-most DK (17.2) points per game and allowed the ninth-most FD (14.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8. They were even more futile against slot wideouts, permitting them the second-most DK (33.8) points per game and the second-most FD (28.1) points per game. Per The 33rd Team, Diggs has a 41.7% slot rate and a 56% perimeter rate this season, giving him access to Philadelphia's leaky secondary all over the formation. He's the WR2 in DFS in Week 12, with the WR2V at FD.
Khalil Shakir will also have opportunities to score points, aligning in the slot at a 55.2% route this year and ascending in Buffalo's passing-game hierarchy since Dawson Knox was placed on IR. Since Week 8, the second-year wide receiver was fourth on the Bills in routes (111), fourth in targets (16), third in receptions (14), first in receiving yards (288) and had one touchdown. He's the WR13V at DK and the cheapest useful option in this game.
Dalton Kincaid has dazzled lately after a slow start to the year, while the Bills experimented with two-tight-end personnel. In his four most recent contests, Kincaid has had 32 targets, 26 receptions (6.5 per game), 243 receiving yards (60.8 per game) and two receiving touchdowns. He should stay hot this week. The Eagles were tied for the second-most DK (19.2) points per game and ceded the third-most FD (15.5) points per game to tight ends since Week 8. Kincaid is projecting as the TE3 at DK and the TE2 at FD in Week 12, with the TE1V at the latter.
Philadelphia's opponents have avoided running against them. However, they've allowed 82.7 rushing yards per game, a sizzling 5.2 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 4.7 receptions per game and 23.3 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 8.
James Cook is slightly built and isn't asked to touch the ball 20-plus times per game. The shifty second-year back is Buffalo's lead ball carrier, though. Cook had a 62.0% backfield rush share since Week 8. Cook also led the Bills in carries (17) and rushing yards (73) in Brady's debut as the club's play-caller. Finally, Cook had three receptions for 29 yards and a touchdown on a reception in the red zone last week.
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is the quarterback on the A-side of Week 12's most exciting game to stack and projected as the QB1 in DFS, with the QB1V at FD. Buffalo's opponents have passed on 56% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 8, and Hurts can pick the Bills apart through the air or on the ground. The dual-threat quarterback is averaging 249.7 passing yards per game and 34.5 rushing yards per game this season, with 15 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns. Hurts has a cathedral-high ceiling this week.
A.J. Brown is joining his stud quarterback as the highest-projected scorer at his position. Brown also has the WR1V at FD. The Chiefs were able to hold Brown to season lows in targets (four), receptions (one) and receiving yards (eight) last week. After Brown's second-worst effort of the season (4-29-0) in Week 2, he went nuts for six consecutive games, besting 125 receiving yards in each contest and scoring five touchdowns. Brown should rebound this week.
DeVonta Smith can also succeed in Brown's shadow. In Philadephia's previous four games, Smith had 23 targets, 20 receptions (5.0 per game), 298 receiving yards (74.5 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.
The third-year pro also strutted his stuff in an enhanced role when Dallas Goedert missed five contests in 2022. During those games, he had a 27.3% target share, 25 receptions (5.0 per game), 420 receiving yards (84.0 per game) and two receiving touchdowns. This week, Smith is projected as the WR9 at FD and the WR10 at DK.
D'Andre Swift exploded out of Philadelphia's bye for 76 rushing yards, three receptions, 31 receiving yards and a touchdown, averaging a scintillating 7.1 yards per touch. He was held under 4.0 yards per touch in three of his last four games before Philadelpia's bye in Week 10.
Swift is a game-script-proof weapon with at least 15 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in nine consecutive games. The sledding won't be easy on the ground since the Bills have held running backs to only 3.3 yards per carry since Week 8. However, Buffalo permitted 7.3 receptions per game, 60.5 receiving yards per game, 8.3 yards per reception and two receiving touchdowns to running backs during those four years. Swift is projected as the RB4 and tied for the RB4V at DK and projects as the RB5 with the RB5V at FD in Week 12.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
