NFL DFS Digest: Week 11 Picks & Predictions (2023 Fantasy Football)

The NFL Week 11 main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 11 games this week. A few offenses are well-represented with suggestions. Some have zero viable DFS options. The rest have one-offs or a couple of suggested selections.

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Week 11 Matchups

Game: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Spread: DAL -10.5

Over/Under: 42.0 Points

Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys have been slinging the ball around the yard since their bye. According to RotoViz's pace app, Dallas has had the second-highest pass rate (66%) in neutral game scripts since Week 8.

Dak Prescott has gone nuclear in the pass-happy offense, passing for 1,082 yards (360.7), 11 touchdowns and two interceptions since the club's bye. Dallas's implied total is encouraging for another big performance from the Cowboys, ergo, another excellent showing from their triggerman. The optimizer is projecting Prescott as the QB2 at both DFS providers.

CeeDee Lamb has erupted with Prescott. Among wideouts since Week 8, he has had the third-highest target share (36.1%) and the most air yards (535), converting his elite usage into 34 receptions (11.3 per game), 500 receiving yards (133.3 per game) and three touchdown receptions. Lamb also had two rushes for 26 yards and a touchdown. Dallas's No. 1 wide receiver is projected as the WR2 in DFS, with the WR1 value score (WR1V) at FD.

Brandin Cooks had an uninspiring start to his tenure with the Cowboys, failing to clear 50 receiving yards in his first seven games. The veteran wideout flashed signs of life in Week 6 (4-36-1) and Week 8 (3-49-1) before bottoming out in Week 9 (1-7-0). Cooks had a trajectory-changing performance last week, barbecuing the Giants for nine receptions, 173 receiving yards and one touchdown reception.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cooks has run the third-most routes (99) on the Cowboys since their bye, 28 more than Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert ran. In addition, Cooks's average depth of target ticked up from 11.9 yards downfield before the bye to 13.8 since. His deeper usage will give him a chance to help DFS squads, even in an ancillary role behind target-hog Lamb.

When the Cowboys have a high implied total, Jake Ferguson is an exciting DFS pick. The second-year tight end has the most targets inside the 20-yard line (17), the 10-yard line (10) and the five-yard line (seven) among tight ends this season. In his last three games, Ferguson was second on the Cowboys in routes (113), targets (21) and receptions (15). He was also third in receiving yards (164) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (three) in those three games.

Tony Pollard disappointed gamers who used him last week in a smash spot. He has a chance to redeem himself this week. The Panthers are tied for the third-highest rush rate (52%) against them in neutral game scripts since Week 7, and the Cowboys should rev up the run when they're blowing out the Panthers.

Pollard has 39 rushes versus only 19 for Rico Dowdle since Week 8, and the former ran 77 routes compared to 30 for the latter. Dallas's implied total, the game's spread and Pollard's role in the backfield are all dreamy. Maybe this week, he can finally make the most of a golden opportunity. Sadly, it's not guaranteed, and his inefficiency could pave the way to more chances for Dowdle.

Panthers Analysis: The Panthers have scored 15, 13 and 13 points in three games since their bye. Frank Reich is reclaiming play-calling duties this week. Carolina's desperate and has a punchless offense. Gamers shouldn't use them in DFS.

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Spread: CLE -1.0

Over/Under: 33.0 Points

Steelers Analysis: The Steelers' magical lucky ride will continue this week, facing rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. In the fifth-round pick's only start this year, he threw three interceptions, took four sacks and led the Browns to just three points. Pittsburgh's defense can tee off on him.

Browns Analysis: DTR is unlikely to produce fantasy-relevant options on the Browns this week.

Game: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Spread: DET -7.5

Over/Under: 48.0 Points

Bears Analysis: Justin Fields is expected to start this week and could provide a spark to Chicago's offense. However, he's had more downs than ups as a passer to this point in his young career and is returning from a thumb injury on his throwing hand. Thus, while it's not unreasonable to roll the dice on Fields or DJ Moore, I don't suggest doing so.

Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown has surpassed 100 yards receiving in four consecutive contests and six of eight this season. In the two contests when he failed to hit triple-digit receiving yards, he had six receptions for 71 yards and one touchdown and five receptions for 56 yards and one touchdown.

Additionally, ARSB had over 100 receiving yards in all three of his home games this season. He should be busy against a defense tied for the third-highest pass rate (64%) against them in neutral game scripts since Week 7. The Sun God is projected as the WR3 in DFS in Week 11.

Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers

Spread: LAC -3.0

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Chargers Analysis: Austin Ekeler is a workhorse, handling 72.1% backfield rush share and running 91 routes versus 43 for Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller combined since Week 7. In the last four weeks, Ekeler has averaged 88.75 scrimmage yards and 3.5 receptions per game, with four touchdowns.

He should be busy this week against the Packers. Green Bay's faced a 50% rush rate in neutral game scripts since Week 7. They've also ceded 4.3 receptions per game to running backs since Week 7. Ekeler is projected as the RB2 in Week 11, with the RB8V at DK and the RB2V at FD.

Packers Analysis: The Chargers have allowed the most DK (24.0) points per game and the most FD (18.2) points per game to tight ends since Week 7. Yes, Travis Kelce had 12 receptions, 179 receiving yards and one touchdown against them during that stretch. Still, three more tight ends have cleared 65 yards, seven had at least 35 and seven had at least three receptions against the Chargers this season.

Luke Musgrave would be a reasonable selection based on the matchup alone. However, the rookie tight end had his two highest yardage outputs in Week 9 (three receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown) and Week 10 (two receptions for 64 yards). Therefore, Musgrave isn't strictly a matchup-driven pick.

Game: Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

Spread: HOU -4.5

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals at the Texans is my favorite game to stack in DFS this week. Both teams have intriguing players after the triumphant return of Kyler Murray in Week 10. Murray had 249 passing yards, one interception, six rushes, 33 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown last week.

The Cardinals passed on 58% of their 55 plays in a neutral game script in Murray's season debut. He can build on last week's showing against a defense that allowed three quarterbacks to best 325 passing yards and four to produce multiple touchdowns (Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield each threw for two touchdowns, Desmond Ridder passed for one and ran for one and Anthony Richardson ran for two). Murray is one of the most intriguing value options at quarterback, with the QB2V at DK and the QB5V at FD.

Trey McBride is the best pass-catching weapon in Arizona's offense. He led the Cardinals in targets (nine), receptions (eight) and receiving yards (131) in Week 10. The second-year tight end had a dud in Week 9 when rookie Clayton Tune was overmatched as the starting quarterback. Yet, McBride had 14 targets, 10 receptions, 95 receiving yards and one touchdown when Joshua Dobbs started in Week 8. The sophomore is blossoming and has a cushy matchup this week. The Texans have allowed the ninth-most DK (15.9) and the ninth-most FD (12.9) points per game to tight ends since Week 7. McBride is the TE1 at DK and the TE2 at FD, with the TE3V at the former and tying for the TE1V at the latter.

Michael Wilson is a tantalizing punt this week. First, according to The 33rd Team, he has a 48.1% slot rate this year, and the Texans have coughed up the sixth-most DK (25.2) and the sixth-most FD (18.9) points per game to slots since Week 7. The Texans are also mid-pack against perimeter wideouts in that timeframe. So, Wilson can succeed aligned wide.

Second, per PFF, the Texans have played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate (80.1) this season. Wilson has amassed 1.98 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) against zone coverage in his rookie campaign. He's an outstanding stylistic fit for the matchup and has the WR2V at DK.

Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud is having a remarkable rookie season. Thankfully, the Texans have opened up the offense to take advantage of his excellent passing since their bye in Week 7, passing on 57% of their plays in neutral game scripts in the previous three weeks. In those games, he had 966 passing yards (322 per game), six touchdown passes one interception, 31 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He's in a groove, and the Texans have a DFS-friendly 26.5-point implied total.

Nico Collins was out last week but should play this week. Noah Brown was a force to be reckoned with in Houston's last two games but hasn't practiced through Thursday, making it increasingly likely he'll miss this game.

In his most recent action, Collins had three receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown. The breakout wide receiver also had massive games against the Colts (7-146-1) and the Steelers (7-168-2). The third-year pro is a boom-or-bust choice this week.

Tank Dell is on the same wavelength as Stroud. In three games since Houston's bye, the diminutive pass-catcher has led the Texans in routes (104), targets (29) and receiving touchdowns (three). Dell also had 15 receptions (5.0 per game) and 186 receiving yards (62.0 per game). The dynamic rookie has the WR5V at DK this week.

Could the Texans shift back to a more run-heavy offense against the Cardinals this week? Maybe. Houston is a favorite at home, and the Cardinals have tied for the fourth-highest rush rate (51%) against them in neutral game scripts since Week 7.

Devin Singletary ran the ball down Cincinnati's throat last week, toting the rock 30 times for 150 yards and a touchdown. He also had one reception for 11 yards. Singletary has a pristine matchup this week. Arizona has allowed the eighth-most DK (26.5) points per game and the sixth-most FD (23.4) points per game to running backs since Week 7, allowing them over 100 rushing yards per game. Dameon Pierce is expected to miss this game, giving Singletary another crack at a bell-cow gig.

The Texans are favored at home, and it's only Murray's second game this year. If Murray has more rust to shake off and is in a negative game script, Houston's DST can provide DFS gamers with value at a cheap salary. They're a better pick at DK than FD since there are less enticing options in their salary range at the former.

Game: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: JAC -7.0

Over/Under: 40.0 Points

Titans Analysis: The Titans have passed on 56% of their plays in a neutral game script since handing the reigns over to rookie quarterback Will Levis in Week 8. Conversely, the Jaguars have the second-highest pass rate (65%) against them in neutral game scripts since Week 7, basically begging teams to air it out.

Levis has struggled since an electrifying debut. Nevertheless, he's wisely peppered DeAndre Hopkins with targets. In Levis's three starts, Hopkins had a team-high 25 targets, resulting in 11 receptions for a team-high 215 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions.

Kyle Philips is a sneaky punt on DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform. The second-year pro was targeted on 24.4% of his 41 routes in the last two weeks, corraling seven receptions for 129 receiving yards. Unfortunately, Philips ran fewer routes than Chris Moore and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Could Philips's performance allow him to siphon routes from Moore or Westbrook-Ikhine? Maybe.

Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars were routed last week by the 49ers in their return from their bye. The lopsided loss makes it challenging to conclude possible changes after they self-scouted during their week off.

Travis Etienne is the top dog in the backfield, though. In Jacksonville's last four games, Etienne had a 79.3% backfield rush share and ran for 222 yards (55.5 per game) and four touchdowns. In those games, the speedy running back also ran 87 routes compared to 26 for Jacksonville's other running backs, and Etienne had 15 targets, 11 receptions (3.7 per game), 131 receiving yards (43.7 per game) and one receiving touchdown.

Etienne should have a positive game script in a favorable matchup. The Titans have yielded over 100 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, the 12th-most DK (23.8) points per game and the 11th-most FD (20.5) points per game to running backs since Week 7. Etienne has a sky-high ceiling this week.

The Titans have flipped back to a pass-funnel defense. Tennessee's opponents have passed on 59% of their plays in a neutral game script since Week 8. Christian Kirk would benefit the most from Jacksonville dialing up the pass against the Titans. In his last four games, Kirk had 27 targets, 19 receptions (4.75 per game), 291 receiving yards (72.75 per game) and two receiving touchdowns.

Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Spread: MIA -13.5

Over/Under: 46.5 Points

Raiders Analysis: Josh Jacobs was nearly included in this section. Interim head coach Antonio Pierce has made Jacobs the offense's focal point. Still, the Raiders' implied total is only 16.5 points, and a negative game script would require Jacobs to be active as a pass-catcher to provide value in DFS. Jacobs had eight receptions for 81 yards when Aidan O'Connell started in Week 4, but he's had only two targets, two receptions and 11 receiving yards in AOC's last two starts.

There's also the risk a former player like Pierce, who understands the physical toll of collisions on the gridiron, might not want to subject the crown jewel of his offense to unnecessary punishment late if the Raiders get smoked. Pierce will undoubtedly use his stud running back as long as the game is close, but Miami's high-powered offense can put them in a hole in a hurry.

Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins have a blistering 30.0-point implied total. They've feasted on cupcakes this year, and the Raiders are closer to a cupcake than a championship contender despite their .500 record. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tua Tagovailoa is third in passing yards per game (289.9), tied for first in passing touchdowns (19) and second in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.05 ANY/A).

Tagovailoa could get burned if the Dolphins take the air out of the ball late, and touchdown variance didn't shine favorably upon him before that point. Nevertheless, Tagovailoa's efficiency and potential to have a hand in scoring touchdowns to push the Dolphins to a sizable lead resulted in him being projected as the QB1 in DFS this week, with the QB1V at FD.

Conveniently, Tyreek Hill is projected as the WR1 in DFS, with the WR2V at FD. Stacking the projected QB1 with the projected WR1 sounds appealing in DFS, right? Hill is tied for third in receptions per game (7.7) and is first in touchdown receptions (eight) and receiving yards per game (119.6). He's a matchup-proof nightmare capable of leading all players in scoring this week.

De'Von Achane is expected back from Injured Reserve after practicing this week. The speedy rookie running back was a cheat code in the three games he had extensive playing time in Week 3 through Week 5. In those three games, he had 37 rush attempts, 455 rushing yards, 12.3 yards per carry, 7.2 yards before contact per attempt, 5.1 yards after contact per attempt, five broken tackles, five rushing touchdowns, nine targets, eight receptions, 63 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Moreover, he had more rush attempts than Raheem Mostert (30) and ran more routes (54 versus 51) than his veteran teammate.

Obviously, Achane's pace is unsustainable. Still, he can have a monster game against a defense that permitted the third-most DK (28.5) and the third-most FD (24.8) points per game to running backs since Week 7, getting smashed for over 125 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry.

The Dolphins are commanding favorites at home against a rookie quarterback making only his fourth start. O'Connell's 8.8% sack rate would be the 10th-highest mark if he were a qualified quarterback. Miami's DST can rack up sacks and turnovers if he's forced to throw in predictable situations in a negative game script.

Game: New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Spread: WAS -9.5

Over/Under: 37.0 Points

Giants Analysis: In three games in which Tommy DeVito played most of New York's snaps at quarterback, they've scored 10, six, and 17 points. They're not a serious source of DFS options this week.

Commanders Analysis: The Commanders have an NFL-high 71% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 7, five percent higher than the second-highest rate. During that time, the Giants were tied for the fifth-highest pass rate (62%) against them in neutral game scripts. Washington's lousy defense might not allow Sam Howell to take his foot off the gas this week.

Howell is locked in and taking fewer sacks. The second-year quarterback has cleared 310 passing yards in three consecutive games, passing for 1,034 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions and taking only seven sacks. Howell had the three lowest sack totals of his career in the previous three games. The Giants are ill-equipped to slow him down after getting shredded by Prescott for over 400 passing yards last week.

Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy loves to rotate wide receivers. Nonetheless, Terry McLaurin is a fixture on the field, leading the team in routes (181), targets (34), receptions (20) and receiving yards (259) since Week 7.

McLaurin has a drool-inducing matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the fifth-year pro has aligned wide 67.1% of the time this year. Meanwhile, Big Blue has allowed the fourth-most DK (24.2) and the fourth-most FD (19.1) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 7. Don't fret. McLaurin has a nearly equally favorable matchup when he aligns in the slot since the G-Men have allowed 23.8 DK and 18.7 FD points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 7. Finally, in three games against New York's defense with Wink Martindale as the defensive coordinator, McLaurin has had 27 targets, 20 receptions, 265 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: SF -11.5

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers are large underdogs on the road. A negative game script for them is good for Rachaad White's DFS outlook. The second-year running back is an inefficient runner but a weapon in the passing game. In his last four games, White has had 20 targets, 19 receptions (4.75 receptions per game), 228 receiving yards (57.0 per game) and one receiving touchdown. And while White is an inefficient runner, he still chipped in 197 rushing yards (49.25 per game) and two touchdowns on a 76.5% backfield rush share in the four-game sample.

49ers Analysis: Brock Purdy has excelled in five games this year (Weeks 1, 2, 4, 5 and 10) when he had all his weapons for the entire game. In that sample, he completed 73.6% of his passes and tallied 1,257 passing yards, 10.1 yards per attempt, 10 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. Additionally, Purdy is first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.67 ANY/A) this season. He doesn't need to pass a ton to score DFS points and has the QB1V at DK and the QB3V at FD this week against a defense that's allowed the third-most DK (24.7) and the third-most FD (23.2) points per game to quarterbacks since Week 7.

Brandon Aiyuk is the best wide receiver to stack with Purdy. He's aligned in the slot 62.8% of the time this year, and the Bucs have allowed the most DK (33.9) and the most FD (25.9) points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 7. Aiyuk is San Francisco's wide receiver most capable of beating man and zone coverage, and PFF credits the Bucs with playing each at a league-average rate this season. Aiyuk has 3.71 Y/RR versus man coverage and 2.91 Y/RR against zone coverage this year.

Christian McCaffrey is also a nifty stacking choice with Purdy. In five games with all of San Francisco's studs healthy for the entire game, CMC was tied for the third-most routes (119) on the team and had 26 targets, 21 receptions (4.2 per game), 181 receiving yards (36.2 per game) and one receiving touchdown.

Of course, McCaffrey is also an elite runner, steamrolling defenses for 520 rushing yards (104 per game), 5.4 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns in the five-game sample. CMC is the RB1 in DFS this week at both DFS outlets, with the RB1V at FD and tying for the RB3V at DK. He's also projected as the highest scorer at DK across all positions in Week 11.

San Francisco's DST is a screaming value at FD, where they have the DST1V. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers have forced the fifth-most turnovers (17), pressured quarterbacks at the 11th-highest rate (24.8%) and tallied 23 sacks in nine games. After adding pass-rusher Chase Young at the trade deadline, they're better equipped to harass quarterbacks when the opposing offense drops back to pass. In Young's first game on the 49ers last week, San Francisco had five sacks and forced four turnovers. The Bucs are 11.5-point underdogs with a tiny implied total of 15.0 points. San Francisco's defense can have another dominant effort this week.

Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Spread: BUF -7.0

Over/Under: 39.5 Points

Jets Analysis: Zach Wilson hasn't progressed to NFL competency. Fortunately, that hasn't prevented Tyler Conklin from popping up for six receptions and 66 receiving yards in Week 9 and seven and 70 in Week 10. He can have another rock-solid game this week in a good matchup. The Bills have allowed the eighth-most DK (16.6) and the sixth-most FD (13.7) points per game to tight ends since Week 7. Thus, Conklin has the TE2V at DK.

Gang Green's defense smothered Josh Allen and forced him into numerous blunders in Week 1, sacking him five times and forcing four turnovers. Allen was a trainwreck last week against Denver's ascending defense, and the Bills fired their offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, after the contest. The Jets could have another superb game against the Bills. They're the cheapest useful defense at DK and have the DST1V there.

Bills Analysis: It's unclear what changes are in store for the Bills under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. It's late in the season, and the Bills had a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Therefore, sweeping changes are unlikely this week. On that note, since Week 7, the Bills have had a 59% pass rate in neutral game scripts.

They could run more often against the Jets, but when Allen passes, he'll presumably attempt to avoid New York's stud outside corners, which is good news for blossoming rookie Dalton Kincaid and second-year slot wideout Khalil Shakir.

Kincaid has turned it on lately, tallying 32 targets, 28 receptions (7.0 per game), 272 receiving yards (68.0 per game) and two receiving touchdowns in his last four games. Shakir was fourth on the Bills in routes (105) during those games and had 16 targets, 15 receptions (3.75 per game) and 208 receiving yards (52.0 per game). Each young pass-catcher has encouraging optimizer data, with Kincaid projecting as the TE3 in DFS and tying for the TE1V at FD and Shakir tying for the WR6V at DK.

Game: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: SEA -1.0

Over/Under: 46.5 Points

Seahawks Analysis: Geno Smith shredded the Rams for 367 passing yards and three passing touchdowns in Week 13 of 2022. However, he's passed for only 325 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while taking five sacks in two subsequent meetings, including getting stuffed in a locker by the bully Rams in Week 1. The Seahawks have a tasty implied total, but the salaries for their best players aren't appealing with Smith's inconsistent play and struggles in back-to-back matchups against the Rams.

Rams Analysis: Per PFF, Smith has had the 11th-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage (3.8 TWP%) among 36 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks since Week 7. He's also taken eight sacks since Week 7. The Rams' defense is below average, but they're at home and had an extra week to prepare for this matchup since they were on their bye in Week 10. As a result, Los Angeles's DST is a contrarian pick in tournaments this week.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.