After accounting for byes, primetime games and a Sunday morning contest in Germany, the Week 10 NFL DFS main slate has 10 games. There are ample selections at every position this week. Looking at each game individually will narrow the focus to a palatable pool of suggested choices.
Week 10 Matchups
Game: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -6.0
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Browns Analysis: Deshaun Watson had a decent effort last week in a favorable matchup. Still, he’s largely performed poorly for the Browns and has a nightmare matchup this week. The Browns aren’t an appealing source of DFS choices this week.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens are rolling but have a challenging matchup against Cleveland's talented defense. Baltimore's offensive tendencies and a semi-soft spot in Cleveland's defense make a pair of Ravens intriguing.
First, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Ravens have rushed on 47% of their 135 plays in a neutral game script since Week 6. Second, Cleveland's opponents have rushed on 45% of their 192 plays in a neutral game script since Week 6.
In addition, according to The 33rd Team, the Browns have allowed 82.0 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry and three touchdowns (two rushing and one receiving) to running backs since Week 6. Gus Edwards is the best bet to succeed against them on the ground. The Gus Bus is tied for fifth in Yards After Contact per Rush Attempt (2.5 YACON/ATT) among running backs with at least 10 rush attempts since Week 6. Edwards also had the most rush attempts (seven) and rushing touchdowns (five) inside the five-yard line among running backs during the same timeframe.
Keaton Mitchell is another fun pick after last week's outburst. The speedy rookie undrafted free agent (UDFA) had 138 rushing yards and one touchdown on nine carries in Week 9. He's risky since he had only an 18% snap share last week and shares work with Edwards and Justice Hill. Mitchell's home-run ability is apparent, and he has a punt salary, making the risk worth embracing for gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Watson has the ninth-highest sack rate (8.7%) among qualified quarterbacks this year. He also has five turnovers in five games. Meanwhile, Baltimore's defense is a juggernaut, allowing the fewest yards per play (4.1) and the fewest points per game (13.8) while forcing 13 turnovers and recording an NFL-high 35 sacks.
Game: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -6.5
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud halted a two-game passing yardage skid in Week 9 by setting a new rookie record with 470. The sensational rookie also threw five touchdowns. Stroud has passed for at least 280 yards four times and threw multiple touchdowns five times in eight games in his first professional season.
Stroud has two talented playmaking wideouts and a tight end who are valuable in DFS this week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Houston's bye in Week 7, Tank Dell has led the team in routes (64), targets (15) and receiving touchdowns (two) and had 130 receiving yards. Nico Collins was third in routes (58) and had 11 targets, seven receptions, 84 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Dell has averaged the sixth-most air yards per game (122) among wide receivers since Week 6. However, Collins should have an easier assignment if the calf injury that prevented him from practicing on Thursday also doesn't stop him from playing this weekend. According to The 33rd Team, Collins has aligned wide 41.1% of the time this year, and Dell has 33.0%. Since Week 6, the Bengals have coughed up the fifth-most DraftKings (22.4) and the fourth-most FanDuel (17.9) points per game to perimeter wideouts but held slots to the third-fewest DK (11.2) and tied for the third-fewest FD (9.0) points allowed per game since Week 6. If Collins has to miss this game, Noah Brown will enter the conversation as a rock-solid value option, albeit a likely chalky one.
Dalton Schultz is also balling and has a dreamy matchup. According to PFF, Schultz is second in Yards per Route Run (2.45 Y/RR) among 29 tight ends targeted at least 10 times since Week 6. He wasn't just efficient, either. Schultz was tied for second at the position in target share (26.7%). He parlayed his volume and efficiency into 16 receptions (5.3 per game), 196 receiving yards (65.3 per game) and two touchdown receptions in that timeframe.
And, again, the matchup is tasty. The Bengals have allowed 8.0 receptions per game and 86.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 6.
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals are the A-side of this matchup as 6.5-point favorites at home. The hosts have a pass-happy offense and face a defense that teams have attacked through the air. Since Week 6, the Bengals have had a 62% pass rate on 146 plays in a neutral game script, and Houston's opponents have a 60% pass rate on 192 plays in a neutral game script.
Now healthy, Joe Burrow is cooking with gasoline. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games, averaging 283.25 passing yards per game, with two 300-plus yard efforts, 10 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Burrow should smash this week and is projected as the QB1 in DFS, with the QB3 value score (QB3V) at FanDuel.
Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are on the injury report. Chase is dealing with a bruised back he played through after taking a hard fall on a leaping reception attempt against the Bills. While Chase is trending toward playing this week, Higgins's hamstring injury is considered a week-to-week issue, almost certainly sidelining him against the Texans.
Chase was a monster in the only contest Higgins was absent this year. The third-year pro erupted for 15 receptions, 192 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions against the Cardinals without his talented running mate at the No. 2 wideout spot. Chase should dominate the targets in the offense if his back issue doesn't hinder his play and the matchup is favorable.
Chase moves around the formation but plays approximately two-thirds of his snaps aligned wide. Since Week 6, the Texans have allowed the 11th-most DK (16.8) and tied for the 10th-most FD (13.5) points allowed per game to perimeter wideouts. Fortunately, Chase can also barbecue the Texans when aligned in the slot since they've allowed the 12th-most DK (19.0) and the 12th-most FD (13.2) points per game to slots since Week 6.
Tanner Hudson is in the punt-TE territory without Higgins after earning five targets on only 13 routes and converting them into four receptions for 45 receiving yards in Week 9.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: SF -3.0
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
49ers Analysis: Will San Francisco stick to their run-heavy approach against Jacksonville's pass-funnel defense? The 49ers have rushed on 47% of their 123 plays in a neutral game script since Week 6, but Jacksonville's opponents have passed at the second-highest rate (68%) in neutral game scripts since Week 6.
It's probably not black and white. Instead, the 49ers will likely pass more than usual but not necessarily align with the 68% neutral pass rate against the Jags since Week 6. Brock Purdy had brutal interceptions in his last three games before San Francisco's bye in Week 9, throwing five. During his turnover spree, the second-year quarterback also averaged 254.0 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt. If he can reign in the turnovers, Purdy can be a massive value this week.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel would benefit immensely from an uptick in San Francisco's passing rate against a defense permitting the third-most DK (23.5) and the third-most FD (19.1) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 6. Admittedly, Aiyuk (63.4% slot) and Samuel (65.2% slot) have played the slot more often than on the perimeter, and the Jags have stymied slot wideouts.
Aiyuk is more likely than Samuel to see an uptick in playing time on the perimeter this week since the former spiked to a 58.6% perimeter rate in Week 2, but the latter's season-high mark was only 28.6% in Week 3.
Aiyuk and Samuel are both outstanding in one notable area for this matchup. The Jaguars play zone coverage at an above-average rate this season and San Francisco's top two wideouts feast on zone coverage. According to PFF, Aiyuk has 3.18 Y/RR and Samuel has 2.93 Y/RR against zone coverage this year.
Christian McCaffrey is projected as the RB1 this week despite Jacksonville stonewalling running backs on the ground. Thankfully, CMC is a monster through the air, and the Jags have struggled to defend running backs in the passing attack. McCaffrey has averaged 4.0 receptions per game and 41.3 receiving yards per game with three receiving touchdowns in his last three games. Conversely, the Jaguars have yielded 10.7 receptions per game and 78.7 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 6. During that stretch, Alvin Kamara had a massive outing against the Jaguars, reeling in 12 receptions for 91 receiving yards.
McCaffrey can overcome the challenging matchup on the ground. Yet, CMC's nose for the end zone (13 touchdowns this season) and receiving chops are the backbone of the case for using him in DFS this week.
Jaguars Analysis: Travis Etienne is a modern-day bell-cow running back. In Jacksonville's last four games before their bye in Week 9, Etienne had 85.4% of the backfield's rush share and produced 80.75 rushing yards per game and six rushing touchdowns.
Etienne is also an asset in the passing attack. He was sixth among 50 running backs targeted at least six times since Week 6 in Yards per Route Run (1.85 Y/RR). Etienne had 13 receptions (3.25 per game), 170 receiving yards (42.5 per game) and one touchdown in those games.
The matchup is also good. The 49ers have allowed 98.0 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.3 receptions per game and 33.0 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 6.
Calvin Ridley is another enticing pick from the Jaguars. He's been volatile in his return from a suspension, disappearing in a few contests but also scoring a touchdown or besting 80 receiving yards and five receptions four times.
Ridley has the ideal matchup this week on the perimeter (60.2% wide rate this year). The 49ers have allowed the most DK (36.2) and the most FD (28.2) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 6.
Jacksonville's defense could have their hands full. Still, they're one of the best bargain options this week and can pan out if Purdy can't clean up his turnover woes. The second-year quarterback has the highest Turnover-Worthy-Play Percentage (8.2 TWP%) among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks since Week 6, resulting in five interceptions. He also took six sacks in those three games.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: NO -2.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Saints Analysis: Taysom Hill is a genuine weapon in the red zone. In his last four games, he had three targets, one reception, one receiving touchdown, 10 rush attempts, two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown inside the five-yard line. Hill is a unicorn at the tight end position with multiple paths to paydirt.
Vikings Analysis: Joshua Dobbs' 2023 story is remarkable. Nevertheless, the Vikings aren't a serious source of DFS options against an above-average defense this week.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -3.0
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Packers Analysis: The Packers beat backup quarterback Mark Rypien and the Rams last week. They have a trickier matchup on the road against the Steelers, reflected by their low implied team total. It's not a good week to use players on the Packers in DFS.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers have forced the third-most turnovers (16) and recorded the ninth-most sacks (26) this season. They're home favorites and can pile up sacks against a sack-prone inexperienced quarterback. Jordan Love has the 10th-highest Pressure-to-Sack Percentage (21.9 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks since Week 6. He could also make mistakes if forced to pass in a negative game script on the road.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -1.0
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Titans Analysis: Will Levis is Tennessee's starting quarterback after a brilliant debut and a less impressive second start. Uneven play isn't unusual for rookie quarterbacks. Instead, it's normal. Levis flashed his arm talent even in a less impressive second start, and the Titans passed on 61% of their 67 plays in a neutral game script against the Steelers.
Levis can produce a high-end start this week against a pass defense that's getting flamed. The Buccaneers have allowed 349.25 passing yards per game and nine passing touchdowns in their last four games. Moreover, Stroud lit them up for 470 passing yards and five touchdowns last week.
DeAndre Hopkins is the most apparent stacking option with Levis. Nuk is also a superb standalone choice. He has a 27.0% target share, 284 air yards, eight receptions, 188 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions in Levis's two starts. Hopkins is also shining in PFF's WR/CB matchup chart, sporting the second-most significant matchup advantage among wideouts playing on the main slate this week.
Kyle Philips is a sneakier stacking pick with Levis and a contrarian one-off pick. In Levis's two starts, Philips was targeted on a rock-solid 22.2% of his 36 routes, catching seven passes for 92 yards. Philips could play more this week if Treylon Burks can't clear the NFL's concussion protocol.
Philips and Hopkins are also treated to a delectable matchup when they play the slot. Nuk has a 38.6% slot rate this year, and Philips's is 80.3%. The Bucs have coughed up the most DK (42.6) and the most FD (33.4) points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 6.
Buccaneers Analysis: Mike Evans is Mr. 1000 Receiving Yards, and he's on pace to accomplish the feat for the 10th consecutive season in a 10-year career. It's all he knows. Since Tampa Bay's bye in Week 5, he was third on the team in routes (141), second in targets (27), third in receptions (17), first in receiving yards (257) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (two).
The Bucs have moved him around the alignment, using him in the slot at a 42.1% clip and wide 57.1%. Evans has an above-average matchup in either alignment. Tennessee has allowed the 13th-most DK (14.5) and the 13th-most FD (11.5) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 6. They also allowed the eighth-most DK (20.2) and tied for the eighth-most FD (15.8) points per game allowed to slots during that stretch.
Rachaad White is also a critical component in Tampa Bay's passing attack. Since Week 6, White has 20 receptions (5.0 per game), 193 receiving yards (48.25 per game) and 1.60 Y/RR. The Titans have allowed only 3.3 receptions per game and 15.7 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 6, but White should stay involved as a pass-catcher.
The matchup also isn't as imposing on the ground as it might seem. The Titans were a pass-funnel defense last year and early this season. However, teams have rushed on 47% (tied for the seventh-highest rate) of their plays in a neutral game script against the Titans since Week 6. Finally, Tennessee has allowed 111.0 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns to running backs since Week 6. Thus, White could have a do-it-all performance this week.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ATL -1.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: Arthur Smith isn't prioritizing using his best players, rendering them a frustrating case of what-if in DFS.
Cardinals Analysis: Trey McBride is a target hog and efficient. He's sixth in target share (23.6%) among tight ends since Week 6 and fifth in Yards per Route Run (2.12) among those of his peers targeted at least 10 times during those four weeks.
Taylor Heinicke has the fifth-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play Percentage (5.9 TWP%) among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks since Week 6. He also took two sacks in one start and one relief appearance. The veteran gunslinger is an ideal player to target with a punt defense, and Arizona has him in their crosshairs this week.
Game: Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: DET -3.0
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown is first in target share (34.7%) among wideouts since Week 6. His ability to command targets is impressive, making him a high-floor and high-ceiling player. The Sun God had at least six receptions in all but one game, cleared 100 receiving yards in all but two games and had touchdowns in the two outlier contests. He's a stud and the WR1 at both DFS providers this week, with the WR1V at FD.
Sam LaPorta is turning his nose up to the track record of slow starts for rookie tight ends. He's averaging 5.4 receptions per game, 54.3 receiving yards per game and has four touchdown receptions in his rookie campaign. LaPorta, like ARSB, is a model of consistency, catching at least five passes, clearing 50 receiving yards or scoring a touchdown in every game. He's projected as the TE1 in DFS this week.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers' wide receiving corps is ravaged by injuries. Thankfully, Keenan Allen is chugging along. In Los Angeles's last four games, he has more targets (37) than the second and third-most targeted players combined (36), converting them into 27 receptions (6.75 per game), 286 receiving yards (71.5 per game) and one touchdown reception.
Allen has a slightly above-average matchup from the slot this week. The Lions have allowed the 13th-most DK (18.8) and the 14th-most FD (13.8) points per game to slots, and Allen has aligned in the slot 70.0% of the time this season.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -16.5
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants have an implied total of 11.0 points. They are DFS poison. Stay away from them.
Cowboys Analysis: Dak Prescott probably won't have to do much late in this game. He might even be able to cheer for Cooper Rush from the sideline. However, if the Cowboys blow the Giants out as the spread predicts, Prescott might have a big hand in the wide scoring disparity.
Prescott is locked in. Since Week 6, he's first in passing yards per game (316.7) and has eight touchdown passes versus one interception. Prescott also ran for 73 yards and one touchdown in those three contests.
CeeDee Lamb has eviscerated defenses during Prescott's heater. He is third in target share (34.3%) and first in air yards per game (155) among wideouts since Week 6. Lamb is also first in Yards per Route Run (3.81 Y/RR) among wide receivers targeted at least 10 times since Week 6. As a result, Lamb averaged 10.0 receptions per game and 156.3 receiving yards per game, with two touchdown receptions during his white-hot stretch.
Lamb's success against man coverage since Week 6 is also of note against a man-heavy defense. DBro was all over Lamb's monster numbers and the matchup mismatch against the G-Men this week.
Jake Ferguson isn't a consistent presence in the box scores. He's entering this contest on a roll, though. Ferguson had 14 targets, 11 receptions, 138 receiving yards and two touchdowns in two games since Dallas's bye in Week 7. The second-year tight end is a favorite of Prescott's in scoring territory, pacing tight ends in targets (eight) inside the 10-yard line this year. Since the Cowboys have a slate-high implied total, Ferguson is one of the best bets at his position to reach paydirt.
Tony Pollard isn't the same dynamic running back he was as a change-of-pace running back in previous seasons. Nevertheless, he's getting all the volume gamers can hope for, tallying at least 13 opportunities (rushes plus targets) in every game this season. Pollard also previously beat up Big Blue for 82 scrimmage yards, two receptions and two touchdowns in Week 1. The G-Men have held running backs to only 3.3 yards per carry since Week 6. Yet, they permitted over 100 scrimmage yards per game and four touchdowns to running backs in that four-game span. And, obviously, the game script should be positive for Dallas's running game, albeit with the risk of Pollard getting an early hook when the game gets out of hand.
Defense is volatile, and spending substantial salary cap space on a DST is rarely wise. The Cowboys are an exception this week against a non-NFL caliber quarterback. Tommy DeVito has a 22.9% sack rate and a 7.4% interception rate this year. To put those marks in perspective, the highest sack and interception rates among qualified quarterbacks this year are 15.8% and 5.4%, respectively. The Cowboys will make DeVito's life hell this week, and they're projected as the DST1, with the DST1V at both DFS providers.
Game: Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -6.0
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has trusted his second-year quarterback Sam Howell to lead a pass-happy offense. In fact, Washington's 68% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Week 6 is four percent higher than the second-highest rate.
Howell has rewarded his OC's faith lately, passing for 397 yards and four touchdowns in Week 8 and 325 and one in Week 9. The sophomore also took only one sack in Week 8 and three in Week 9, the two lowest totals in games in his 10 career starts. The improvement to Howell's sack rate was encouraging and bodes well for continued success if it sticks.
Terry McLaurin is the team's No. 1 wideout. Since Week 6, he has led the team in routes (166), targets (38), receptions (22) and receiving yards (307), adding one touchdown reception for good measure. Jahan Dotson has emerged from an early-season slump to tally the second-most routes (158), targets (26), receptions (17) and receiving yards (220) for the Commanders and a team-high two receiving touchdowns in their previous four games.
McLaurin can overcome any matchup, but Dotson will have the easier assignment in the slot more frequently. McLaurin has a 32.2% slot rate this year, and Dotson's is 57.4%. Since Week 6, Seattle gave more to the slot (16.7 DK points per game and 12.6 FD points per game) than to perimeter (9.5 DK points per game and 7.6 FD points per game) wide receivers. Dotson is more appealing if Curtis Samuel's toe injury sidelines him again this week. The second-year wideout's floor will be lowered if Samuel returns.
Seahawks Analysis: Kenneth Walker is an up-and-down, big-play-chasing running back. The second-year running back had only 16 scoreless rushing yards and a one-yard reception in last week's blowout loss. In Week 8, he had 66 scoreless rushing yards on eight rushes and a four-yard reception. Walker hasn't reached double-digit rushes in Seattle's last two games. Regardless, Walker handled 65.4% of the backfield's rush share since Week 8 and 84.9% since Week 6.
It's a get-right spot if Walker's new chest injury doesn't prevent him from suiting up. The Commanders have allowed 81.5 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 6.25 receptions per game, 48.25 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 6. Zach Charbonnet is a no-brainer value pick if Walker is ruled out.
Tyler Lockett is also a rock-solid pick in Week 10. He's averaged 5.25 receptions per game and 61.0 receiving yards per game, with one touchdown reception in his last four games. Seattle has used him nearly 50/50 on the perimeter and in the slot this season. The veteran wide receiver has a midpack matchup from the slot and a great one on the perimeter. The Commanders have allowed the sixth-most DK (20.0) and the sixth-most FD (15.4) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 6.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
