NFL DFS Digest: Thanksgiving Picks & Predictions (2023 Fantasy Football)

Thanksgiving is a delightful holiday for many reasons, including the presence of three NFL games. The spreads are sizable for each contest, creating blowout potential in all three games. However, it’s a fun DFS slate to sort through, and the following players are the most attractive selections.

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Thanksgiving Matchups

Game: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Spread: DET -7.5

Over/Under: 47.0 Points

Packers Analysis: According to RotoViz's pace app, the Packers have passed on 57% of their plays in a neutral game script since Week 8. Jordan Love has rewarded Matt LaFleur's faith by playing better lately. Love is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) ninth-ranked passer out of 32 with at least 50 dropbacks since Week 8.

He's averaged 267.0 passing yards per game, with six touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games. Love was a dumpster fire in the first half of the first meeting against the Lions in Week 4. He played better in the second half, and Detroit's defense has suffered meaningful injuries since that game. Thus, Love is the most intriguing cheap quarterback on this slate.

Jayden Reed is an intriguing piece of Green Bay's passing attack. According to PFF, he was fourth on the Packers in routes (114) in their last four games. However, the rookie wideout was third in targets (19), first in receptions (16) and first in receiving yards (232). Reed also ran four times for 67 yards and had two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving) since Week 8.

He has a favorable matchup from the slot. Per The 33rd Team, Reed has a 75.8% slot rate this season. Since Week 8, the Lions have allowed 21.0 DK points per game and 17.5 FD points per game to slots.

Tucker Kraft is a viable punt, assuming Luke Musgrave's seemingly serious abdominal injury sidelines him on the short week. Musgrave has flashed his potential this season, but Kraft is the next man up. One week after running a career-high 18 routes in Week 10, Kraft ran 13 and set a new high for receiving yards (32) while tying his previous highs for targets (two) and receptions (two). He might not absorb all of his fellow rookie teammate's vacated routes, but his 46 routes since Week 8 were many more than Josiah Deguara's seven.

Lions Analysis: The Lions are favored and should have a golden opportunity to force-feed their talented backfield. In neutral game scripts since Week 8, they've run on 46% of their plays in neutral game scripts. However, in 30 plays, when leading by at least eight points, they ran on 77% of their plays.

Teams have chosen to attack the Packers on the ground, too. Green Bay's opponents had a 47% rush rate in neutral game scripts since Week 8. During that span, running backs had 90.25 rushing yards per game, 3.8 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 3.0 receptions per game and 13.75 receiving yards per game.

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have thrived on the ground lately. In Detroit's last two games, Montgomery had 24 rushes, 192 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 21 routes, two targets, two receptions and 22 receiving yards. Gibbs had 22 rushes, 113 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 42 routes, 11 targets, nine receptions and 94 receiving yards. They're excellent picks individually. Yet, since they're vastly different backs and are both used by the Lions, they can be used on the same DFS lineup on this three-game slate.

Jameson Williams ran the second-most routes (25) he's run in a game this season in Week 11. The speedy sophomore had a productive game in an enhanced role, hauling in two receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown on three targets. The field-stretching wideout had played 55.8% of his snaps aligned wide, and the Packers have permitted more DraftKings points per game (12.9) and FanDuel points per game (10.3) to perimeter wide receivers than slots (11.9 and 9.1) since Week 8. Williams is a boom-or-bust punt since he's targeted deep and infrequently.

Detroit's defense isn't as healthy as when they flustered Love earlier in the season. Nevertheless, the Lions are favored at home, making them the cheapest home favorite DST on the slate.

Game: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Spread: DAL -11.0

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

Commanders Analysis: Completely fading the Commanders isn't a bad move. Still, Logan Thomas is a decent value option. The veteran tight end has had at least four receptions and 31 receiving yards in five consecutive games, reaching at least 40 receiving yards four times during that stretch. Thomas is a consistent piece in Washington's passing attack, and the matchup isn't a nightmare. The Cowboys have allowed 3.25 receptions per game, 40.75 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns to tight ends since Week 8.

Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys should boat race the Commanders. Dak Prescott has played brilliantly in a pass-happy offense. Since Week 8, Dallas has passed at a 66% rate in neutral game scripts. They also haven't taken their foot off the accelerator, passing on 57% of 125 plays when leading by at least eight points since Week 8. Moreover, Washington's opponents have picked on the Commanders' secondary, passing on 67% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 8.

In Washington's last eight games, they've been torched for 288.5 passing yards per game and 10 passing touchdowns while recording only one interception. Prescott can pile onto Washington's woes since the veteran quarterback is dialed in. Prescott has completed 70.9% of his 148 pass attempts for 1,271 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions in his previous four games. It's an eruption spot for Prescott on Thanksgiving.

CeeDee Lamb has balled out during Prescott's heater. Since Week 8, Lamb has had 53 targets, 40 receptions (10.0 per game), 538 receiving yards (134.5 per game), four receiving touchdowns, three rushes, 33 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Lamb is versatile, aligning in the slot 63.4% of the time and wide at a 31.5% clip this season. He can eat from either spot since the Commanders have no answers for wideouts lately. Since Week 8, they've allowed the sixth-most DK (21.2) and the seventh-most FD (17.5) points per game to perimeter wideouts. Yet, Washington has coughed up more DK (22.6) and FD (18.6) points per game to slots.

Brandin Cooks can also barbecue Washington's secondary. After a slow start, he's had 20 targets, 16 receptions, 271 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in his past four games, albeit with a 9-173-1 effort against the Giants accounting for a significant chunk of that production. Nevertheless, Cooks has had at least three receptions and over 40 receiving yards in three of his last four games, splashing paydirt twice. He's also locked into the No. 2 wideout spot for the Cowboys, running the second-most routes (134) among Dallas's wide receivers since Week 8. Michael Gallup is next among the wide receivers, running only 90 routes during that stretch.

Jalen Tolbert was nipping at Gallup's heels in the last four games, running 88 routes, only two fewer than Gallup. The second-year wideout has had only 16 targets, seven receptions, 63 receiving yards and one touchdown since Week 8, but he's a reasonable punt on this specific slate.

Jake Ferguson is arguably Dallas's second-best pass-catching option on the three-game slate. He's had 25 targets, 18 receptions, 196 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions in his last four games. The second-year tight end is a volume hog in scoring territory, pacing tight ends in targets inside the 20-yard line (18), the 10-yard line (10) and the five-yard line (seven). Whenever the Cowboys have a massive implied total like this week, Ferguson is a compelling selection.

Tony Pollard had an encouraging performance last week, amassing 80 scrimmage yards on 12 rushes and four receptions. Pollard also scored his first touchdown since Week 1 against the Panthers in Week 11. The game script and matchup are ideal for a stellar follow-up game from Pollard. Since Week 8, the Commanders have allowed 86.5 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 6.0 receptions per game, 59.25 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns to running backs.

Dallas is the biggest favorite on Thanksgiving and has the home advantage against their division foe. It's a recipe for their opportunistic defense to get after a young quarterback who's taken an NFL-high 51 sacks and thrown an NFL-high 12 interceptions this season.

Game: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: SF -6.5

Over/Under: 43.0 Points

49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is the crown jewel of San Francisco's supremely talented offense. CMC has eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in seven of 10 games and scored at least one touchdown in nine contests this season. He's also had at least three receptions in nine games. McCaffrey's floor and ceiling are absurd.

Brock Purdy and the passing attack can also have success against the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed 246.0 passing yards per game and six passing touchdowns to quarterbacks since Week 8. In addition, Purdy succeeded in two prior meetings against the Seahawks, completing 35 of 56 passes (62.5%) for 549 yards (9.8 yards per attempt), five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Purdy was also sharp in two games since San Francisco's bye in Week 9, completing 78.4% of his 51 passes for 629 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

While CMC is a stacking option with Purdy or a fantastic standalone pick, the same applies to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. The Seahawks have played zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league in 2023. According to PFF, Samuel has had 24 targets, 21 receptions, 309 receiving yards and 2.73 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) against zone coverage in 2023. Kittle has also torched zone defense this season, tallying 33 targets, 26 receptions, 337 receiving yards, 2.07 Y/RR and three touchdown receptions.

Brandon Aiyuk has had the most Yards per Route Run (3.14) against zone coverage for the 49ers this season. However, the salary gap is too wide between Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle. Finally, Samuel and Kittle had more success than Aiyuk against the Seahawks in Purdy's two starts against Seattle.

San Francisco's DST isn't as attractive as Dallas's, but they're an upgrade from Detroit's for gamers with the available salary to spin up to them. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers have the ninth-highest pressure rate (23.6%), 27 sacks and 19 turnovers (tied for the second most) this season.

Seahawks Analysis: Kenneth Walker is trending toward an absence this week with an oblique injury. Zach Charbonnet should step into a bell-cow role if Walker is out. As a complementary player, the rookie running back has eclipsed 60 scrimmage yards in three of his last four games. He's also had 10 receptions in the last two weeks, alleviating some concern about a negative game script ruining his outlook.

The matchup isn't mouthwatering, but it's not a nightmare, either. The 49ers have allowed 61.0 rushing yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.7 receptions per game and 33.0 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 8. Thus, Charbonnet is the cheapest useful running back on this slate.

DK Metcalf is Seattle's most exciting DFS choice if a toe injury doesn't prevent him from playing. The Seahawks have passed on 65% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 8, and San Francisco's opponents have passed on 61% of their plays in neutral game scripts during that stretch.

The physically imposing wideout has aligned wide 79.1% of the time this year, and perimeter wideouts have scorched the 49ers. Since Week 8, San Francisco has allowed the second-most DK (24.5) and the second-most FD (20.1) points per game to perimeter wideouts compared to only 16.9 and 13.4 to slots.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.