The Black Friday NFL Showdown contest is a lopsided affair. The Jets are in a tailspin, and the Dolphins should smash a team spiraling down the toilet bowl. As a result, the suggested player pool is small and one-sided for this slate.
Game: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Spread: MIA -9.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: According to RotoViz's pace app, the Dolphins passed on 58% of their 67 plays in a neutral game script last week, their first game since a bye in Week 10. The pass rate was notably down from their 64% rate in neutral game scripts in their final three games before the bye. Was the change a product of self-scouting or a matchup-driven decision? Did they lean into the run slightly more because Tyreek Hill left the game briefly with a hand injury? It's a one-game sample, so it's unclear.
Nevertheless, Tua Tagovailoa was still leaned on heavily, completing 28 of 39 passes for 325 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Tagovailoa wasn't flawless, but passing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns was nothing to sneeze at. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tagovailoa is second in passing yards per game (293.4), second in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.04 ANY/A) and second in touchdown passes (21) this season.
The Jets are a challenging matchup. However, Josh Allen carved them up last week, and Tagovailoa does an elite job of quickly getting rid of the ball, mitigating the impact of Gang Green's top-shelf pass rush. Tagovailoa is a superb choice on this slate.
Hill is Tagovailoa's unquestioned No. 1 weapon and one of the NFL's premier target hogs and producers. The speedster is fourth in target share (32.0%) and tied for sixth in air yards per game (115) this season. Unsurprisingly, Cheetah's elite underlying data has resulted in sterling numbers. He is third in receptions per game (7.9), first in receiving yards per game (122.2) and first in receiving touchdowns (nine). Obviously, Hill is an elite choice on this slate.
Jaylen Waddle is a distant second in Miami's passing-game hierarchy. Yet, he's much more involved than everyone behind him. The third-year pro has averaged 4.9 receptions per game and 64.1 receiving yards per game with three touchdown receptions this season. However, Waddle showcased his contingency upside last week, getting peppered with targets when Hill was having his hand x-rayed. If Hill aggravates his hand injury or his hand impacts his performance, Waddle's value would skyrocket.
Cedrick Wilson is a useful punt and will potentially be overlooked in Miami's top-heavy passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Wilson ran the third-most routes (81) on the Dolphins in their last four games. The veteran wideout had 13 targets, seven receptions, 103 receiving yards and two touchdowns in those contests.
Wilson can benefit from his deployment in this matchup. According to The 33rd Team, Wilson has a 72.2% slot rate this season. Conversely, the Jets have allowed more DraftKings points per game and FanDuel points per game to slots (13.0 and 10.6) than to perimeter wideouts (4.4 and 3.4) since Week 8.
Julian Hill is strictly a punt to save salary for Miami's studs. He's run 43 routes since Week 7. Additionally, he ran 20 routes without Durham Smythe last week. Hill would be the default starter if Smythe is out again this week.
Raheem Mostert would benefit the most if last week's slightly more run-heavy approach sticks. Furthermore, Gang Green's opponents ran on an NFL-high 57% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 8. Mostert is averaging 69.1 rushing yards per game with an NFL-high 11 rushing touchdowns this season. He's also chipped in 2.0 receptions per game and 15.8 receiving yards per game with two receiving touchdowns.
Mostert was a workhorse last week, toting the rock 22 times. However, De'Von Achane aggravated the knee that caused him to go on injured reserve (IR) from Week 6 through Week 10 after only two touches in Week 11. Achane's status for Friday is unclear. Still, he's been a limited practice participant through Wednesday and would be an enticing selection for his home-run ability if he's active.
Salvon Ahmed was also injured last week, leaving Mostert as the only healthy active running back. Jeff Wilson will replace Ahmed in the rotation this week after the latter was placed on IR. Wilson isn't particularly attractive if Achane is active. However, he could soak up garbage-time rushes and mix in early in the contest if Achane is inactive.
Miami's defense is the next one to get a crack at New York's unserious offense. Zach Wilson was benched, but Tim Boyle probably wouldn't start for most spring football teams. That's not hyperbole. According to Sports-Reference, Boyle had a pathetic 48.4% completion rate, one touchdown pass and 13 interceptions in 19 games at UCONN. He doesn't belong in the NFL, evidenced by his three touchdown passes and nine interceptions on 120 attempts as a pro. The Dolphins will tee off on him.
Jets Analysis: Did you see Boyle's college and pro stats above? The Jets are a tire fire, and investing substantial cap space in anyone attached to a sub-NFL caliber quarterback is unwise. Therefore, the primary focus is saving salary on the one required player from the Jets.
As a result, Xavier Gipson is the best option from Gang Green. Gibson ran the second-most routes (34) for the Jets last week. In their last three games, the rookie wideout ran the third-most routes (104) on the Jets. He also had the memorable game-winning return touchdown against the Bills in Week 1. Gipson's role as a returner is a cherry on top as an admittedly unlikely path to DFS scoring if he has another return touchdown.
Final Thoughts: Hill and Tagovailoa are the tier-one Captain/MVP options. Mostert is in tier two. Achane is a contrarian Captain pick but not an MVP option. Finally, as only one suggested Jet indicates, Dolphins onslaught lineups are the ideal constructions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
