We have a couple important QB situation updates in the wake of Week 11, with significant implications for fantasy defenses:

• The biggest news is that Bengals QB Joe Burrow is out for the season with a torn ligament requiring surgery in his wrist. This is a sad day for Bengals fans and fans of the NFL at large. It also means Jake Browning, who had his first NFL snaps last week, will be the starter going forward. Browning will be a viable target for fantasy defense unless he can prove otherwise.
• The Zach Wilson experiment in New Jersey appears to be over, with Tim Boyle named the starter for however long it takes Aaron Rodgers to heal from his torn Achilles. Boyle has been in the league since 2018 but has seen limited playing time, starting just a few games as the Lions’ backup in 2021. I expect Boyle to be turnover-prone, but it remains to be seen if he can take as many sacks as Wilson. The Jets remain a top-tier defense target.

Week 12 D/ST Projections

Bye weeks aren’t over, but we get a break from them with all 32 teams playing for Thanksgiving week. This has resulted in a lot of good options for streaming defenses, including a few widely-available teams in my top tier. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Matchups

1. NE @ NYG: Last week, Giants QB Tommy DeVito led the team to 31 points with three touchdowns and no interceptions. You might think this would result in a poor fantasy performance for the opposing Washington Commanders, but it did not. They were the #6 defense in fantasy becuase DeVito got sacked nine times. DeVito has taken 5+ sacks and allowed 8+ fantasy points in all three of his starts. This matchup provides an excellent floor for the patriots, and the chances are low that they will need it to counteract significant points – the Giants have the second-lowest Vegas-implied point projection of the week.
2. MIA @ NYJ: The Jets finally did it – they benched Zach Wilson mid-game for Tim Boyle, who will be the starter going forward. Boyle was signed by the Packers as an undrafted rookie in 2018, and made a few starts as the Lions’ backup in 2021. Boyle has been bad in the limited amount we’ve seen him in the NFL – he has 3 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his career. The Jets definitely needed a change, but all signs point to Boyle being at least as bad as Wilson. The Jets remain a top-tier fantasy defense target until further notice.
3. TEN vs CAR: Bryce Young had the worst game of his already-bad rookie campaign last week, with 7 sacks taken and just one touchdown to show for it. This wasn’t a huge surprise against a tough Cowboys defense. The Titans are not on that level, but they’re still good enough take advantage of this matchup against a team that sold their future for a guy who just might not be an NFL quarterback. The Titans are a great steamer this week with availability in over 90% of Yahoo leagues.
4. KC @ LV: The Chiefs’ defense has been legit, which they proved again in Monday’s loss where they held the now 9-1 Eagles to just 21 points. They should feast in a divisional game against rookie QB Aidan O’Connell, who threw three interceptions last week.
5. DEN vs CLE: The Browns signed Joe Flacco to their practice squad, but there’s no sign of the 38-year-old veteran being promoted to starter any time soon. That means the Broncos will get the third career start of fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is currently the Browns’ starter since Deshaun Watson is out of the season. The Broncos defense has been cooking lately, holding some good offenses – the Chiefs, Bills and Vikings – to just 52 total points in three games. They should have an easy time against a QB who has thrown four interceptions and no touchdowns in his two career starts.
6. DAL vs WAS: Last week I commented that Sam Howell and the Commanders had been playing well for a few weeks, but targeting them was still a reasonable dart throw because we’ve seen how good Howell can be for fantasy defenses on his worst days. Well he had is second-worst game of the season against a Giants’ defense that is just OK, throwing three interceptions including a pick-six to make the Giants the #1 fantasy defense for the week. Now he gets to face one of the better defenses in the league – the Cowboys – on the road. I’m expecting to see more of the Sam Howell we know and love – the Sam Howell who is still on pace to set the single-season sacks taken record.
7. PIT @ CIN: The Bengals tragically lost Joe Burrow for the season to a torn ligament in his wrist (of his throwing arm) last week. QB Jake Browning saw his first NFL snaps playing a little more than half of that game, and is the starter going forward. Browning was signed to the Vikings’ practice squad as an undrafted rookie in 2019. Browning beat Trevor Siemian for the Bengals’ backup QB job in the 2022 preseason but had not seen the field until now. This is looking like a lost season for the Bengals, who should be a good D/ST target for the rest of the season.
8. CLE @ DEN: Russell Wilson is looking like player Broncos fans have been hoping for with four straight wins, but those have been scrappy wins where the offense has topped out at 24 points. Russ has shown an ability to allow big sack numbers against competent pass rushes. He has five games of 4+ sacks, with the Defense finishing 7th or better in fantasy in 4/5 of those games, including both such games in the current win streak. “Competent pass rush” is an understatement for a Browns unit that’s top-five in sacks per game as a unit, featuring athletic freak Myles Garrett, who leads the league with 13 sacks. There’s a bit of risk but a lot of upside here for an excellent Browns defense.
9. CIN vs PIT: The Steelers have finally fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada after much pleading from just about everyone who cares about the Steelers. The Steelers’ offense has been bad with second year QB Kenny Pickett, but that hasn’t always translated into great fantasy results for opposing defense thanks to good ball security and a somewhat low sack rate. It’s not unusual for teams to bounce back after a coach firing, but I can’t be scared before they actually show it. A divisional road game is going to be a tough place for the Steelers to try to take a step forward.
10. SF @ SEA: The Seahawks have come back to earth a bit in recent weeks, after a hot start that exceeded expectations for Geno Smith. Smith left last week’s game against the Rams with an elbow injury, but it does not appear to be a long-term thing or likely to keep him out of this week’s game. The Seahawks with Geno are a middling offense that’s not interesting to target for most defenses, but certainly viable for a top-tier defense like the 49ers, who got it done against a similarly middling Buccaneers offense last week.

Stashes/Holds for Week 13+

It’s worth planning ahead for any team that’s still engaged in this point, whether it’s to have a solid plan for the playoffs, or to make every week count as we battle for playoff spots over the next four weeks. The landscape is good this week but the waver wire will get hot again in Week 13, with six teams (including the Ravens and Bills) on bye. So here are some teams that I think are worth stashing/holding for Week 13 or later:

• Atlanta Falcons (vs NO this week, @ NYJ Week 13, @ CAR Week 15) – The Falcons may not be the most exciting defense, but they get two great matchups with the Jets and Panthers in Weeks 13 and 15.
• Cleveland Browns (@ DEN this week, vs CHI Week 15, vs NYJ Week 17) – You probably don’t need much convincing not to drop the Browns. They do have some tough matchups after this week, with the Rams and Jags in Weeks 13-14 and the Texans in Week 16 They’re worth a bench spot those weeks to get to two excellent matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
• Green Bay Packers (@ DET this week, @ NYG Week 14, @ CAR Week 16) – The Packers’ defense is worth keeping an eye on since they get two of the best matchups with the Giants and Panthers in Weeks 14 and 16.
• Houston Texans (vs JAX this week, vs DEN Week 13 and @ NYJ Week 14) – The Texans have a nice 2-game run after this week, with a good Broncos matchup and a great Jets matchup.
• Miami Dolphins (@ NYJ this week, @ WAS Week 13, vs TEN Week 14, vs NYJ Week 15) – The Dolphins are a defense you can ride until the fantasy playoffs, with four straight good matchups. But you will have to find someone else for Weeks 16-17, when they face the Cowboys and Ravens.
• New Orleans Saints (@ ATL this week, vs CAR Week 14, vs NYG Week 15) – The Saints have a nice 2-week stretch coming up, with the Panthers and Giants, both at home, in Weeks 14-15.
• Philadelphia Eagles (vs BUF this week, vs NYG Week 16, vs ARI Week 17) – The Eagles might be tempting to drop as they get three straight terrible matchups starting this week, but hold the line (or keep an eye on league-mates who might drop them). They face the Giants and Cardinals in the Week 16-17 fantasy playoffs, both at home. An Eagles-Dolphins tandem the rest of the way could be a league-winner.

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