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Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 11 (2023 Fantasy Football)

Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 11 (2023 Fantasy Football)

Week 10 is in the books, and it’s time we start thinking about the fantasy playoffs. Most leagues will have playoffs in Weeks 16-17, meaning we have five more regular season matchups remaining. Some leagues might start earlier in Week 14 or 15, if they have more than 2 rounds of playoffs, or 2-week matchups. I’ve been giving recommendations for short term stashes all season, and I’ll keep doing that with an expanded perspective that includes the playoffs. Here are some teams that I think could be worth stashing on the bench, or holding on to after starting this week:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (vs PHI this week, then @LV Week 12, @GB Week 13) – They aren’t usable against the Eagles this week, but the good-looking Chiefs defense has a nice back-to-back with the Raiders and Packers the next two weeks, then again in Weeks 15-16 when they face the Patriots and Raiders again.
  • Los Angeles Chargers (@ GB this week, and @NE, vs DEN and @ LV in Weeks 13-15). The Chargers are a solid play this week, and afterward I think it’s worth stashing them through their Week 12 game against the Ravens. Afterward they have a strong 3-game streak with the Patriots, Broncos and Raiders in Weeks 13-15, and they get the Broncos again in Week 17.
  • Miami Dolphins (vs LV this week, then @NYJ, @WAS, vs TEN and vs NYJ in Weeks 12-15). The Dolphins are a solid play this week, and that’s just the beginning of a 5-game stretch of good matchups. They would make a nice tandem with a team that has a good playoff schedule, because you will not want to use Miami against the Cowboys and Ravens in Weeks 16-17.
  • Minnesota Vikings (@ DEN this week, then vs CHI Week 12 and @LV Week 14). After the Broncos this week, the Vikings get another good matchup against the Bears. If you hold on through their Week 13 bye, they get the Raiders when they come back in Week 14.
  • New England Patriots (on bye this week, then @ NYG Week 12). If you stash the Patriots through their bye, they get possibly the best matchup in the league against the Giants when they come back.
  • New York Jets (vs WAS Week 16, @ CLE Week 17). The Jets are among the best defenses in the league, but they have a pretty tough schedule with Buffalo, Houston and Miami twice in their next 5 games. But if you can afford to hold on to them they have two nice matchups against the Commanders and Browns in the fantasy playoffs.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (vs NYG Week 16, vs ARI Week 17). Like the Jets, the Eagles have a rough schedule over the next 5 weeks, but could be the #1 fantasy defense in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, when they face the Giants at home. Kyler Murray has only been back for one week so it’s hard to say how good a matchup the Cardinals will be, but I would not surprised if they’re a viable target for defenses as good as the Eagles. The Eagles also get the Giants again in Week 18, if you’re in one of those leagues. Keep an eye out for the Eagles or Jets getting dropped in your league over the next few weeks.

Week 11 D/ST Projections

The four teams on bye this week are ATL, IND, NE and NO. That means we aren’t missing any of the best defenses, and only two good-but-not-great offenses to target (ATL and NE). There are a lot of good fantasy defenses this week including four with rostership of 30% or less, but you have to reach down to Rank 11 to find a team that’s available in over 90% of leagues. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Rank Team Vs. Vs. QB PA Sacks Turnovers FPTS Rost%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 WAS NYG Tommy DeVito 13.5 3.3 1.2 8.80 21%
2 DAL @CAR Bryce Young 15.75 3.3 1.2 8.11 100%
3 BUF NYJ Zach Wilson 16.5 3.3 1.2 7.94 97%
4 JAC TEN Will Levis 16.75 3.3 1.2 7.76 20%
5 MIA LV Aidan O’Connell 17.25 3.3 1.2 7.72 38%
6 SF TB Baker Mayfield 15 2.4 1.2 7.51 91%
7 CLE PIT Kenny Pickett 16.25 2.7 1.2 7.20 83%
8 DET CHI Tyson Bagent 18.5 2.2 1.3 6.50 30%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
9 LAC @GB Jordan Love 20.5 2.9 1.2 6.46 23%
10 PIT @CLE Deshaun Watson 20.25 2.8 1.2 6.47 92%
The Maybe You Can’t Find Anything Better Tier
11 NYG @WAS Sam Howell 23.5 3.3 1.2 6.42 4%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
12 BAL CIN Joe Burrow 21.25 2.9 1.2 6.37 98%
13 MIN @DEN Russell Wilson 22.5 3.1 1.2 6.29 18%
14 SEA @LAR Matthew Stafford 22.5 2.8 1.2 6.16 69%
15 HOU ARI Kyler Murray 21.75 2.5 1.2 5.92 5%
16 LAR SEA Geno Smith 23.5 2.6 1.2 5.61 7%
17 KC PHI Jalen Hurts 21.5 2.5 1.1 5.57 61%
18 NYJ @BUF Josh Allen 23.5 2.3 1.2 5.49 90%
19 DEN MIN Joshua Dobbs 20.5 2 1.1 5.45 19%
20 GB LAC Justin Herbert 23.5 2.3 1.2 5.31 21%
21 TEN @JAC Trevor Lawrence 23.25 2.2 1.2 5.22 6%
22 CIN @BAL Lamar Jackson 24.75 2.4 1.2 5.22 34%
23 PHI @KC Patrick Mahomes II 24.5 2 1.2 4.76 76%
24 TB @SF Brock Purdy 26.5 2.4 1.1 4.75 45%
25 ARI @HOU C.J. Stroud 25.75 2.3 1.1 4.71 2%
26 CAR DAL Dak Prescott 26.25 2.2 1.1 4.60 7%
27 LV @MIA Tua Tagovailoa 29.25 2 1.2 3.89 64%
28 CHI @DET Jared Goff 28.5 1.9 1.1 3.85 43%

Matchups

  1. WAS vs NYG: Last week, Tommy DeVito and the Giants got absolutely clobbered by the Cowboys. The Giants actually exceeded expectations by a bit on offense, with DeVito throwing two touchdown passes. But that still resulted in a good fantasy day for the Cowboys thanks to an interception and five sacks. The Commanders’ defense is not on the Cowboys’ level, but they’re certainly good enough to take advantage of a five-star matchup like this. Look for a repeat of Week 7 when Washington scored 9 fantasy points against a Giants team led by Tyrod Taylor before he was injured.
  2. DAL @ CAR: Much has been said about Bryce Young‘s failure to live up to his first overall pick status. In the three games since the Panthers’ Week 7 bye, the team has scored an average of less than 14 points per game, while Young has taken 4.3 sacks per game. The Cowboys will be the toughest defense Young has faced yet, so they have an excellent outlook for fantasy.
  3. BUF vs NYJ: The Zach Wilson-led Jets are on a three-game streak of putting the opposing defense in the top 6 for fantasy. For all the Bills’ dysfunction on offense, their defense has been solid and sits at second in the NFL with 33 sacks. They should eat up Wilson, who took 8 sacks from a similarly strong Chargers pass rush just two weeks ago. This meeting of two teams that are better on defense should be a low-scoring affair, as evidenced by a Vegas total of just 40 points.
  4. JAC vs TEN: After an excellent debut in Week 8, Titans QB Will Levis has now had back-to-back bad games, with nearly identical stat lines of 4 sacks, an interception and no touchdowns. Expect more of the same from a pretty good Jaguars defense playing at home.
  5. MIA vs LV: The Aidan O’Connell-led Raiders won with just 16 points last week, because that’s what happens when you play the Jets. They shouldn’t keep up with the Dolphins offense (who can actually play against bad teams like Vegas), so there could be increased turnover potential if they find themselves playing from way behind. Opposing defenses have finished 6th or better in fantasy in 3 of O’Connell’s 4 starts, and another one is likely this week.
  6. SF vs TB: The 49ers defense is the truth, as we all know, and should have the support of an offense that got back on track against the Jags last week. There’s always some risk when targeting Baker Mayfield in fantasy, becuase he can put up numbers on his best days. I suppose that’s still possible, but I’m not really expecting it against a defense this good. Mayfield also doesn’t take quite as many sacks as quarterbacks we would typically target, but he has had a healthy 11 sacks in his last 4 games.
  7. CLE vs PIT: The Browns’ defense is truly excellent, and should have no trouble against a Kenny Pickett-led Steelers’ offense that has topped out at just 24 points this season. Pickett has done a good job avoiding sacks with just four in four games since the team’s Week 6 bye, but Myles Garrett and company should put a stop to that.
  8. DET vs CHI: The Bears were able to beat the Panthers last week with only 16 points, while relying almost entirely on their run game. That won’t be an option against a Lions team that’s playing like one of the best in the league. If the Bears choose to throw more to keep up we could see Bagent get back to throwing interceptions, and if they don’t, well, the Lions don’t need to worry about allowing very many points.
  9. LAC @ GB: The Packers have allowed 8 or more fantasy points to 6 of their last 7 opponents. Quarterback Jordan Love has been boom-bust on the sack front, taking 4 or more in three games, but 2 or fewer in his other six games. I’m expecting another game in the former category, against a Chargers defense that’s top-5 in sacks.
  10. PIT @ CLE: I’m a little surprised to see that the Steelers’ defense is rostered in over 90% of leagues. If you’re one of those managers, there’s no need to jump ship now. Deshaun Watson has played well in just 2 of his 5 starts this season, and now he’s playing through an ankle injury that he sustained in the first half of last week’s game but hasn’t sidelined him. I don’t expect much scoring in this game that has a rock-bottom Vegas total of just 36 points.
  11. NYG @ WAS: It makes me a bit sad to see Sam Howell, the former king of sacks, abdicate the throne over the last three weeks. Even though the team is 1-2, in that time he has posted an impressive 8:2 TD:INT ratio while taking just 7 sacks. The last time the Giants faced the Commanders in Week 7 they were the #3 defense in fantasy and sacked Howell 6 times. It’s optimistic to think that’s very likely to happen again with the Giants on the road and Howell playing better, but at just 4% rostership it’s a dart throw that should be available to most fantasy teams, if you can’t find anything better.

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