Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Nov 3rd 2023, 6:56am EDT

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 9)

Trading in fantasy football is a dying art.

That’s a sweeping assessment, but I think I’m qualified to make it. Between Twitter and the FantasyPros Discord Community, there are probably 15-25 people a day who ask for my opinion on trades. (And by the way, I prioritize the trade questions I get via Discord, so I encourage you to join.)

Most of those trade proposals are out of balance. And many of those trades are never actually consummated.

It’s all too common for people to ask me whether I like a trade that appears to be in their favor. “Yes,” I tell them, and then I offer my reasoning. Then, they’ll come back to me later: “The other person wouldn’t do it. What about this different deal?”

My assumption when people present a trade to me is that the deal is actually on the table. In reality, many of these people are effectively asking me whether they should present an offer that clearly favors them to another fantasy manager — but I’m not aware of that.

No, I don’t recommend making lopsided trade offers to other people. It’s a waste of time, because the other manager is probably a sentient human being and will quickly recognize that it’s a lousy offer. Even in the unlikely event that your one-sided proposal is accepted, the other manager will probably end up with a bad aftertaste and won’t want to deal with you again. You’ll have poisoned the well and alienated a trading partner.

Fleecing someone in a trade should not be your objective. You shouldn’t be trying to “win” a trade. The goal should be to come up with a mutually beneficial trade offer that has a good chance of being accepted.

Ten years ago, I wrote an article called The Tao of Trading. The premise was sort of cheesy — I had just finished a book on Taoism and was reaching a bit with some of the analogies — but I think the advice has held up pretty well.

You should be trying to come up with trade offers that eliminate the negotiation process. Trade negotiations are exhausting. If someone offers me a trade that’s clearly in their favor, my first inclination is not to make a counteroffer. My first inclination is to reject the offer and make a mental note that the other manager is not an earnest trading partner.

Here’s how to make a mutually agreeable trade:

Look for a team in your league that has a surplus at the position you need to upgrade and has a deficit at a position where you have a surplus.
Step into the shoes of the other manager. Which player(s) on your roster would make that manager’s team better, and which player(s) from his roster might he/she be willing to part with to make the deal happen?
Put together some offers, and then ask yourself: “Would I accept this trade if I were them?” If you can honestly answer “yes,” take the deal to the other manager. If they accept the offer, great. If they decline the offer, move on. You’ve made a diligent effort, and since your offer was fair, there’s no room for negotiation. Start the process again with a different manager’s team.

Be a square dealer. We’d all like to get something for nothing, but the reality is that your competitors probably aren’t dimwits. They aren’t going to think your one-week wonders are superstars, and they aren’t going to panic-sell a good player who’s coming off a disappointing game.

Put some effort into trading. Spamming people with terrible offers is counterproductive. Your proposals will be rejected, and you’ll get a bad reputation. Coming up with mutually beneficial trade offers requires not only some work, but also sensitivity to the needs of other managers.

Now go out and make some deals. Those trade deadlines will be here before you know it.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 9 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Let’s start with the obvious: This is an especially gross week at quarterback. Injuries, benchings and bye weeks have left us with some truly abhorrent options at the position. If you have a Tier 1 or Tier 2 starter, congratulations. Enjoy your steak and lobster. On Tier 3, you can get a good hamburger. The QBs on Tier 4 are the equivalent of a gas station sandwich. Tiers 4 and 5? No thanks … I’ve lost my appetite.

Since Week 2, Dak Prescott has averaged 249 passing yards per game, with at least one TD pass in each of those contests. He’s completed 73.1% of his passes over that stretch, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. There were concerns that with Brian Schottenheimer replacing Kellen Moore as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, the Dallas offense might become overly conservative. The good news for Prescott investors is that the Cowboys haven’t been especially good at running the ball, with Tony Pollard averaging 3.9 yards per carry and posting a 48.1% success rate. Prescott has an enticing Week 9 matchup against the Eagles, whose pass defense has gone to seed. Philadelphia can still rush the passer effectively, but their defensive backs have struggled in coverage. The Eagles have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2022. So far this year, the Eagles are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs and have the league’s eighth-worst opponent passer rating.

In a week with so many grim choices at quarterback, Gardner Minshew becomes an appealing fallback option. In four starts this season, Minshew is averaging 40.8 pass attempts, 268.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns. Those starts were against the Ravens, Jaguars, Browns and Saints, teams that rank first, fifth, second and eighth in DVOA against the pass. Minshew has also run for two touchdowns. The Colts rank first in offensive pace, taking an average of 25.79 seconds between plays, according to FTN. More plays = more opportunities to score fantasy points. Minshew gets a solid Week 9 matchup against the Panthers, who rank 14th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in opponent passer rating. Carolina will be without its best cornerback, Jaycee Horn (hamstring).

If you’re a Sam Howell investor who regularly reads this article, you’ve probably noticed that I’m below consensus on Howell in the rankings most weeks. Look, I’m a Howell investor, too. I have him on a redraft team and a dynasty team. I’m just not convinced he’s good — or even average, honestly. Howell’s appeal is mostly volume-based. He’s averaging 38.5 pass attempts per game, ranking No. 2 in that category behind only Kirk Cousins. Maybe Howell will keep chucking it at an obscene rate. Washington’s defense is poor and will get worse without edge rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young, so Washington might see a lot of pass-heavy game scripts. The Commanders aren’t very good at running the ball either. But Howell himself has just been OK. Yards per attempt is a decent back-of-the-envelope measure of a quarterback’s passing ability. Howell is averaging 7.0 yards per attempts, which puts him 19th in the league. He leads the league with 41 sacks, and his eight interceptions are one off the league lead. Howell has been responsible for a lot of negative plays. I’m ranking him QB12 this week in sort of a neutral matchup against the Patriots. He’s a reasonable option in a week where viable QB options are few, but I’m never excited about starting Sam Howell.

If you’re really scrounging at quarterback this week, can I interest you in Mac Jones? The oft-maligned Jones is averaging only 12.1 fantasy points per game and just lost overachieving WR Kendrick Bourne to a torn ACL. But Jones gets a Week 9 home date against the Commanders, who have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs and just traded away their two best pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Jones offers little value as a runner and is an inconsistent passer at best, but this looks like a pretty good spot for him.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7

Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs and Javonte Williams are on bye this week, making for a challenging RB landscape. How rough are things at the position this week? Well, Gus Edwards is RB17 in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. The enthusiasm among rankers is no doubt being pumped up by Edwards’ three-TD performance against the Cardinals last week. Gus Bus is only RB29 in PPR points per game, and after demolishing the Cardinals’ marshmallow-soft run defense last week, Edwards gets a much tougher Week 9 matchup against a Seattle defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the run and is yielding 3.1 yards per carry to RBs. But Edwards has gotten double-digit carries in seven straight games and has averaged 15.2 carries per game since the start of October. Edwards’ ECR may indeed be inflated, but I’m not far behind in ranking him RB20.

Jerome Ford toughed it out last week with a high-ankle sprain and had 9-37-0 rushing and 1-2-0 receiving. Cleveland used a three-headed approach at running back, giving 27 snaps to Kareem Hunt, 26 to Ford and 24 to Pierre Strong. But as Josh Norris of Underdog noted, 22 of Ford’s 26 snaps came in the second half of the Browns’ 24-20 loss to the Seahawks, while Hunt and Strong combined for just 16 second-half snaps. So basically, the Browns were trying to give Ford a light day of work, but they ramped up his usage late in a close game. I’m still regarding Ford as the lead back in Cleveland, and even though his ankle still can’t be 100%, I think he’s a reasonably solid play this week against the squishy Arizona run defense.

Darrell Henderson‘s Week 9 ECR is RB22. I have him at RB26 and worry that I might still be too high on him. Henderson had 12-31-0 rushing and 3-54 rushing last week against the Cowboys, but he was out-snapped by Royce Freeman 33-29, and Freeman ran more pass routes even though he didn’t have a catch. This is a split backfield, and the Rams’ offensive output might be limited in Green Bay this Sunday if QB Matthew Stafford (thumb) can’t play and the Rams have to roll out Brett Rypien at quarterback. I find it hard to get excited about using a time-share back who’s tethered to a backup QB.

I’m not that worried about Alexander Mattison getting usurped by backup Cam Akers, but I don’t want anything to do with the Minnesota running game this week. Fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall makes his NFL debut for the Vikings at quarterback a week after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, and Minnesota is facing an Atlanta defense that has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs (although a season-ending injury to DT Grady Jarrett makes the Falcons’ run defense slightly less impregnable).

People seem eager to climb aboard the Roschon Johnson bandwagon. Uh, maybe I’ll just take a cab instead. Roschon came back from a concussion and out-snapped D’Onta Foreman 24-21 last week. But the Bears were also getting trucked by the Chargers, and Foreman typically doesn’t play much when he’s on the wrong side of a blowout because he’s a total non-factor in the passing game. Foreman still out-carried Roschon 9-5, and this will probably continue to be a split backfield, possibly with Foreman being the 1A to Roschon’s 1B if it’s a run-friendly game script. Also, the matchup is tough this week, with Chicago facing a New Orleans defense that has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. And with Tyson Bagent at QB, the Bears probably aren’t going to score many touchdowns. I’m ranking Foreman RB31, Roschon RB37.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7

We typically think of Gabe Davis as a boom-or-bust WR option with a high upside and shaky floor. Perhaps we should rethink that assessment based on the way the Bills used Davis in Week 8. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2022, Davis has averaged 6.1 targets, 3.4 catches and 55.2 receiving yards per game. The weekly target volume hasn’t been reliable, but Davis has averaged 16.1 yards per catch and 9.1 yards per target the last two years. Last week, Davis served as a possession receiver for Bills QB Josh Allen, finishing with 9-87-1 on 12 targets. As Chris Towers of CBS pointed out, Davis’ average depth of target in Week 8 was just 6.7 yards after being 15.1 yards over the first seven weeks. Maybe we’ll continue to see Davis be less of a lid-lifting deep threat and more of a volume receiver while Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) is out. Or maybe the Week 9 usage was an anomaly. I have Davis ranked WR28 this week, and while I’m habitually above consensus on him, I do think his usage in Week 8 makes him even more appealing than usual in a potential Week 9 shootout against the Bengals.

With the Raiders firing head coach Josh McDaniels this week and benching starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, I’m fully expecting Davante Adams to get the squeaky-wheel treatment, with targets galore. Adams has been notably unhappy with his role in the Las Vegas offense, and the coach and QB changes suggest that the Raiders might endeavor to get the ball to Adams much more frequently. The changes might not bode as well for Jakobi Meyers, a favorite of McDaniels who has been enjoying a fine season. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will be making his second start at quarterback for the Raiders. In O’Connell’s first start, Adams had 8-75-0 on 13 targets. Meyers had 2-33-0 on just four targets. I have Meyers ranked WR30 this week, slightly below his consensus WR28 ranking.

Christian Watson is averaging 44 receiving yards per game, has scored only one touchdown and has caught only 11 of his 24 targets. He’s produced 33 or fewer receiving yards in three of his four games. Granted, Watson’s numbers have been discouraging, and so has the recent play of Packers QB Jordan Love. Still, I’m sticking with my initial read on Watson and continuing to start him in most circumstances. I’m not anxious to give up on a 6-4 receiver with sub-4.4 speed who scored eight touchdowns over a four-game stretch as a rookie.

Jordan Addison has been WR2 in PPR fantasy scoring the last two weeks, with 7-123-2 against the 49ers and 7-82-1 against the Packers. Dare we bench a red-hot receiver due to a QB downgrade? Yeah, I think it’s worth considering. Kirk Cousins was having a banner season before tearing his Achilles last week, and he was leading the league in pass attempts. The Vikings are sure to dial down the passing volume this week with rookie Jaren Hall, a Day 3 draft pick, making his NFL debut. Addison will run most of his routes against either A.J. Terrell or Jeff Okudah, who form a tough outside CB duo for the Falcons. I have Addison ranked WR36 and worry that his floor is no longer sturdy without Cousins as his target-delivery mechanism.

As much as I’d like to think Week 8 was the long-awaited 2023 coming-out party for Jahan Dotson, I’m skeptical. Dotson had 8-108-1 against the Eagles last week. It was the first time all year he’s had more than 40 receiving yards in a game and the first time all year he’s gotten into the end zone. Dotson’s big day came against a Philadelphia defense that’s been letting opposing WRs go wild. The Eagles have given up the most fantasy points per game to WRs in 2023. This week’s matchup against the Patriots isn’t as appealing, and I can only get so excited about a receiver with a 17.1% target share.

TIGHT ENDS

Tier 1

Travis Kelce

Tier 2

Mark Andrews

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Dalton Kincaid SZN is upon us. With fellow TEs Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris out with injuries, Kincaid had a season-high 84% snap share against the Buccaneers in Week 8, ran routes on 39 of his 58 snaps and finished with 5-65-1. Now he gets a matchup against the Bengals, who have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Opposing TEs are averaging 8.7 yards per target against Cincinnati.

Taysom Hill‘s TE eligibility annoys a lot of fantasy managers, but for those of you with the “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” mindset, I’ll mention that Hill is TE2 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR) over the last three weeks. Hill isn’t a safe weekly play because it’s hard to get a handle on how many touches he’ll get in any given game. It’s reassuring, however, that Hill has played at least 28 offensive snaps in each of his last five contests. He’s played 191 snaps over that stretch, and he’s gotten a carry, a target or a pass attempt on 22% of those snaps — an average of 8.4 opportunities per game. I have Hill ranked TE6 in a seemingly favorable matchup against the Bears.

Trey McBride was a smash play in Week 8, with 10-95-1 on 14 targets — good for a TE2 finish in 0.5 PPR fantasy scoring. He managed to do it against the Ravens, who had been extremely stingy to opposing TEs all season. With Zach Ertz out, McBride played a season-high 63 snaps last week, and his increased usage puts him squarely in the TE1 class. That said, McBride is a dicey proposition this week. He’ll be playing with fifth-round rookie QB Clayton Tune, who’ll be making his first NFL start, and McBride will be facing a Browns defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 9)

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 9 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIGHT ENDS

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