A few weeks every year, there are enough successful QB-WR combinations that I can’t help but reminisce about the old retired Burger King feature – the BK Stacker. Week 10 was one of those weeks.
Week 10 featured two QB-WR stacks that probably won you your week, two QB-WR stacks that probably lost you your week and a QB-TE stack that could have won you your week if only you had started them.
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Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
Talk About a Talent Stack
I go over the FGW statistic in Week 8’s article. For a deeper dive, check out my blog. TL;DR: 0.15 = 15% increase in your chances of winning a fantasy matchup.
If you want to quantify the impact a QB-WR stack (or any other combination of fantasy players) has on your chances of winning a fantasy matchup, the math is more complicated than just adding the FGW for each player together.
For example, Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb had a FGW number of 0.39 in Week 10, meaning if you had him in your starting lineup, your chances of winning in a typical week were 89%. Quarterback Dak Prescott had a similarly impressive number at 0.32, for an 82% chance of winning.
You can’t just add the FGW together to get the value of the Prescott + Lamb Stack. Not only would that result in a calculation of 0.71, which would be a non-sensical 121% chance of winning, but it isn’t the way normal curve statistics work. To combine FGW numbers you compare their combined fantasy points to the combined expected scores for one QB and one WR, and go from there. Below is the result of that exercise for a few prominent stacks in Week 10:
| Points | Stack Baseline | Combined % Started | FGW | |
| Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb | 75.9 | 33.1 | 81% | 0.40 |
| Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen | 67.4 | 33.1 | 92% | 0.44 |
| Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley | 5.1 | 33.1 | 39% | -0.17 |
| Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs | 20.3 | 33.1 | 100% | -0.27 |
| Joshua Dobbs + T.J. Hockenson | 51.0 | 30.1 | 22% | 0.09 |
The reason for the 81% started number for Prescott + Lamb is due to Prescott’s 83% started number for Week 10. Is it possible his % started is higher for managers that also have Lamb? Yes it is, and that would increase the resulting FGW score a bit.
What may be surprising here is the fact that the Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs stack had a lower FGW number than Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley. Lawrence and Ridley only combined for 5.1 points. If Lawrence and Ridley had been started 100% of the time, their FGW score would have been -0.44.
In a similar vein, if Joshua Dobbs and T.J. Hockenson were started 100% of the time, their combined FGW of 0.38 would rival the top stacks of the week.
Now, just because you can’t order a BK Stacker from Burger King anymore doesn’t mean nobody ate in Week 10. Let’s see who ordered the proverbial Quad.
Who Won Week 10?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | % Started | FGW |
| 1 | Keenan Allen | WR | 35.0 | 97% | 0.39 |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 34.0 | 98% | 0.39 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | QB | 41.9 | 83% | 0.32 |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 26.5 | 99% | 0.29 |
| 5 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 24.9 | 89% | 0.28 |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | QB | 32.4 | 95% | 0.23 |
| 7 | Jason Myers | K | 21.0 | 84% | 0.22 |
| 8 | Mike Evans | WR | 23.3 | 90% | 0.22 |
| 9 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 24.7 | 89% | 0.21 |
| 10 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | 20.9 | 98% | 0.19 |
| 11 | George Kittle | TE | 19.1 | 81% | 0.18 |
| 12 | San Francisco | DEF | 20.0 | 57% | 0.15 |
| 13 | Austin Ekeler | RB | 19.5 | 98% | 0.14 |
| 14 | Chris Olave | WR | 18.4 | 94% | 0.13 |
| 15 | Baltimore | DEF | 14.0 | 90% | 0.13 |
- Allen beat out Lamb by 0.006 FGW to take the Week 10 title. It’s the second time Allen has led the week in FGW after he also won Week 3.
- St. Brown and Allen are back into the top 20 of players with the most FGW since Week 1 of 2021.
- Hope you’re going to battle with your Minnesota Vikings tight end every week: Not only does Hockenson look the part, but “son” last names are often a sign of Viking lineage. “My mother told me, Someday I would buy, Tight ends with low floors, Prone to quite large scores.”
- Jahmyr Gibbs is “racing” to celebrate the end of the NASCAR season by earning RB1 status. Maybe we’ll find out he’s on the Joe Gibbs Racing payroll and that’s why his workload had to be so low in the early season.
- We haven’t seen a lot of Chris Olave on the FGW leaderboards this year. This was his best week, though he’s still at -0.16 FGW total for the season.
Who Lost Week 10?
| R | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Marquise Brown | WR | 3.3 | 63% | -0.12 |
| 14 | Terry McLaurin | WR | 5.3 | 83% | -0.12 |
| 13 | Tyler Bass | K | 2.0 | 92% | -0.13 |
| 12 | Josh Allen | QB | 15.4 | 100% | -0.13 |
| 11 | Calvin Ridley | WR | 3.0 | 67% | -0.13 |
| 10 | Alexander Mattison | RB | 3.8 | 67% | -0.14 |
| 9 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 6.6 | 93% | -0.14 |
| 8 | Lamar Jackson | QB | 14.0 | 88% | -0.14 |
| 7 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 4.2 | 85% | -0.15 |
| 6 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 4.9 | 100% | -0.16 |
| 5 | Travis Etienne | RB | 5.4 | 92% | -0.16 |
| 4 | Tony Pollard | RB | 5.5 | 97% | -0.17 |
| 3 | Diontae Johnson | WR | 2.2 | 81% | -0.17 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 2.1 | 58% | -0.21 |
| 1 | Derrick Henry | RB | 2.5 | 93% | -0.21 |
- Marquise Brown’s % started number jumped up to 63% this week with the return of Kyler Murray after it was down at 30% for Weeks 8 and 9. The savvy fantasy managers who made that switch might regret being so clever.
- If you stacked Allen and Diggs and threw kicker Tyler Bass in there for good measure, you … probably lost.
- The honeymoon for Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis and, in turn, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins managers is probably over. Time to find a new pair of jeans. I’ve heard Lee’s are OK.
- It has been a rough year for Trevor Lawrence managers. He’s threaded a fine line for most of the season as a below-average fantasy quarterback, but good enough that you’d rather start him over a lot of streaming QBs. Before his Week 9 bye, Lawrence scored between 15 and 20 fantasy points in seven of eight games (he scored 9.24 in the eighth – which is bad, but not terrible). So every week, he had a % started number between 54% and 88%. Week 10 just kicked the bottom out.
- Back in 2021, when Titans running back Derrick Henry dominated the first half of the fantasy season, I started calling him The Terminator in my blog. It was a fitting comparison. I did not realize at the time that the comparison might necessitate my watching all the lowly-rated Terminator sequels when Henry started to slip in his production in order to keep my Terminator references on point. Time to turn on Netflix. Wish me luck. This could be a long night.
Week 10 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Brandin Cooks | WR | 27.8 | 11% | 0.28 |
| 2 | Matt Prater | K | 18.0 | 2% | 0.21 |
| 3 | Noah Brown | WR | 20.7 | 6% | 0.18 |
| 4 | Brian Robinson | RB | 24.7 | 32% | 0.16 |
| 5 | Devin Singletary | RB | 22.6 | 21% | 0.16 |
| 6 | Greg Zuerlein | K | 16.0 | 8% | 0.16 |
| 7 | Wil Lutz | K | 15.0 | 0% | 0.15 |
| 8 | Trey McBride | TE | 17.1 | 20% | 0.14 |
| 9 | Indianapolis | DEF | 16.0 | 23% | 0.14 |
| 10 | San Francisco | DEF | 20.0 | 57% | 0.11 |
| 11 | Matt Ammendola | K | 13.0 | 0% | 0.11 |
| 12 | Cleveland | DEF | 15.0 | 35% | 0.11 |
| 13 | Jayden Reed | WR | 16.9 | 7% | 0.10 |
| 14 | Chris Boswell | K | 13.0 | 16% | 0.09 |
| 15 | Brock Purdy | QB | 26.8 | 33% | 0.09 |
- Cooks made his first appearance on an FGW board this season. His highest % started number was 24% in Week 1, we’ll see if he breaks that in Week 11.
- If it seems surprising that Green Bay Packers reciever Jayden Reed had a higher % started number than Noah Brown … I was surprised by that, too. Most of that is adjustment by expert rankings. The raw population % started numbers were 12% for Brown and 8% for Reed.
- Dobbs missed the list by one spot, but I have to mention his TikTok Post of the guy doing the Creed duet to his rushing touchdown. I really hope this turns into a trend of late-90s/early-00s hard rock and nu metal references for prominent NFL moments. Yeah that’s right, back in the day I had at least one Creed CD, poorly photoshopped album covers in all.
Leaderboard Updates
As consolation for snapping his touchdown streak, San Francsisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is almost back atop the MVP leaderboard.
Allen had the 46th highest ADP this year and thus is No.2 on the Return on Investment board.
Lawrence is the current Least Valuable Player, and it’s not even close.
As far as draft capital investment goes, taking Lawrence at pick No. 57 was worse than taking Nick Chubb at pick No. 7.
Ain’t No “Sunshine” Trevor Lawrence Anymore
There was a period in time when you could order the BK Stacker even though it wasn’t technically on the Burger King menu anymore. Lawrence should probably be off the menu for Week 11. But if you’re forced to order a large Lawrence again in Week 11, hopefully your fantasy team takes a morning jog to Gettysburg before suiting up. Good luck in Week 11, and see you back here next Wednesday.
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