Sometimes, it’s fun to dig into the studs in a given week. Sometimes, it’s fun to dig into the duds. But other times, it’s most fun to dig into the players dragging your team through the mud.
What if I told you that the biggest predictor of Gabe Davis‘ fantasy football success has been whether or not he’s in your fantasy lineup?
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Games Won (FGW)
I go over the FGW statistic in Week 8’s article. For a deeper dive, check out my blog. TL;DR: 0.15 = 15% increase in your chances of winning a fantasy matchup.
St. Gabe, the Archwideout
Here’s a breakdown of Gabe Davis‘ fantasy season so far, each week ranked by his % Started number:
| Week | Pts | % Started |
| Week 07 | 1.1 | 58% |
| Week 06 | 1.6 | 56% |
| Week 09 | 0 | 56% |
| Week 10 | 8.6 | 53% |
| Week 01 | 4.2 | 22% |
| Week 11 | 0 | 20% |
| Week 02 | 18.2 | 12% |
| Week 08 | 19.2 | 11% |
| Week 04 | 13.6 | 10% |
| Week 05 | 19 | 9% |
| Week 03 | 9.8 | 6% |
| Week 12 | 19.5 | 6% |
Yes, you calculated that right. In weeks where he’s started at least 20% of the time, he scores 2.6 fantasy points per game. In weeks where he’s started less than that – 16.7 points per game. His top-six games are all below the 20% started threshold, too.
The % Started number I use is also adjusted to reflect expert rankings, so it shows what active fantasy managers are likely to do with their lineups.
You look at this and could conclude that recency bias is causing everyone to bench Davis when he should be played, and play him when he should be benched. You could also conclude that given enough players, someone’s schedule in the season will look like this.
What do I think? I’m probably in the latter camp. But what I know for sure is I will not be comfortable starting Gabe Davis for a long, long time.
Who Won Week 12?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | 41.7 | 95% | 0.36 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 28.4 | 100% | 0.31 |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 37.5 | 93% | 0.30 |
| 4 | Kyren Williams | RB | 35.4 | 74% | 0.29 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | QB | 36.2 | 90% | 0.27 |
| 6 | Bijan Robinson | RB | 25.8 | 91% | 0.24 |
| 7 | Miami | DEF | 21.0 | 80% | 0.22 |
| 8 | Mike Evans | WR | 22.0 | 92% | 0.20 |
| 9 | Tyreek Hill | WR | 20.9 | 98% | 0.19 |
| 10 | Dallas | DEF | 16.0 | 100% | 0.18 |
| 11 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 23.4 | 80% | 0.17 |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud | QB | 32.9 | 68% | 0.17 |
| 13 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 21.1 | 89% | 0.15 |
| 14 | Derrick Henry | RB | 20.1 | 99% | 0.15 |
| 15 | Raheem Mostert | RB | 21.4 | 84% | 0.15 |
- Josh Allen with his best week since I started recording FGW back in Week 1 of 2021. He did hit 0.36 in Week 4 when he was started 100% of the time and scored 40.5 points. Would hate to be in the 5% that benched him this week.
- Christian McCaffrey is now within 0.07 FGW of Tyreek Hill in the MVP race (most total FGW). What’s surprising is Hill has arguably been the more consistent of the two players.
- Jalen Hurts was not looking like a weekly winner at halftime – by my count he was at only 5.5 fantasy points. I saw quite a few “chances of winning” stats go nuts Sunday afternoon.
- Kyren Williams is back. 74% started seems low, especially given how rough RB has been in 2023. Fun fact: Royce Freeman was started in 1% of leagues in Week 12.
- There’s Tyreek! 0.19 FGW is his seventh-best week of the season. That’s right: On a below-average week, he was still the ninth best player to have in fantasy.
Who Lost Week 12?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Amari Cooper | WR | 2.6 | 56% | -0.11 |
| 14 | Gus Edwards | RB | 4.2 | 58% | -0.11 |
| 13 | Lamar Jackson | QB | 16.0 | 100% | -0.11 |
| 12 | George Kittle | TE | 3.4 | 93% | -0.12 |
| 11 | Joe Mixon | RB | 7.0 | 84% | -0.12 |
| 10 | Dalton Schultz | TE | 0.7 | 71% | -0.13 |
| 9 | Jaylen Warren | RB | 5.7 | 82% | -0.14 |
| 8 | DK Metcalf | WR | 4.7 | 85% | -0.14 |
| 7 | Austin Ekeler | RB | 6.9 | 97% | -0.14 |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | WR | 3.3 | 78% | -0.15 |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 8.8 | 58% | -0.15 |
| 4 | Puka Nacua | WR | 4.7 | 95% | -0.15 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 5.7 | 95% | -0.16 |
| 2 | Adam Thielen | WR | 0.7 | 66% | -0.16 |
| 1 | Justin Fields | QB | 10.6 | 74% | -0.17 |
- Lamar Jackson is having a quietly painful season for fantasy purposes. He’s at -0.40 FGW for the year, fourth-worst among quarterbacks, despite having 0.29 in Week 7 alone.
- George Kittle with quite the feast-or-famine season so far. He’s only scored between five and 18 points in two games this year.
- Puka Nacua with his highest % Started umber of the season at 95% – and he pulls a 4.7 pointer. Ouch.
- Cooper Kupp was at least only started 78% of the time, not 95% like he was for his 1.6 points in Week 11.
- Justin Fields is having a painful season, albeit less quietly than Jacksin. He’s third-worst among quarterbacks with -0.43 for the year.
Week 12 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Blake Grupe | K | 19.0 | 0% | 0.23 |
| 2 | Tyler Higbee | TE | 17.4 | 7% | 0.17 |
| 3 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 16.5 | 0% | 0.17 |
| 4 | Jordan Love | QB | 29.6 | 14% | 0.16 |
| 5 | Green Bay | DEF | 15.0 | 5% | 0.16 |
| 6 | Gabe Davis | WR | 19.5 | 6% | 0.15 |
| 7 | Rashee Rice | WR | 20.7 | 19% | 0.15 |
| 8 | Chicago | DEF | 14.0 | 0% | 0.14 |
| 9 | Cairo Santos | K | 14.0 | 2% | 0.13 |
| 10 | Christian Watson | WR | 17.9 | 8% | 0.12 |
| 11 | Zay Flowers | WR | 20.7 | 38% | 0.12 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | QB | 27.4 | 19% | 0.11 |
| 13 | Brandon McManus | K | 14.0 | 16% | 0.11 |
| 14 | Kyren Williams | RB | 35.4 | 74% | 0.10 |
| 15 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 17.1 | 10% | 0.10 |
*bFGW is the FGW total lost due to low percent started numbers. Essentially, points scored on fantasy benches or free-agent lists.
- Blake Grupe is not a name I know well. He must have just wandered over to the JV field from the vacant lot over there.
- In the battle of Tight Ends We All Know But Nobody Played, Tyler Higbee edges out Pat Freiermuth for most bench performance.
- Jordan Love caps off a three-game stretch where his % Started never went above 14%, but he averaged 23.7 points. We’ve all forgotten his 5-pointer in Week 5 by now, right?
- Mark my words: This will be the last time we see Zay Flowers with a % Started number at 38% for a long time, barring an injury.
Leaderboard Updates
- Christian McCaffrey is making a case for MVP.
- Keenan Allen is still the best investment outside of Round 1.
- Trevor Lawrence had a nice week, but it didn’t help him much in the Least Valuable Player race.
- Sadly Nick Chubb is now the worst draft capital investment, but there’s a surprising player at No. 2.
- We have a new All-Time-Since-2021 FGW leader!
Don’t Do It, Davis Managers
If you’re less into analysis and more into obscure references and memes, perhaps you’ll enjoy my weekly video!
If Gabe Davis‘ season seems especially normal to you, as in it feels like your players wait and see whether you start them before deciding to have a good day, just know you’re not alone. This is the plight of the fantasy football manager. Even so, I don’t recall a player being so perfectly frustrating to play as Davis has been this year. It’s been something to behold.
Hopefully your stretch run will be something to behold. Good luck in Week 13, and see you here next Wednesday.
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