I want to kick off this week’s article by giving props to the fantasy managers who stuck through six straight weeks of six or fewer fantasy points for Tyler Bass. Although you likely should have pivoted weeks ago to another option, your steadfast belief that he would turn it around paid off with 16 fantasy points against the Jets.
It was the first time since Week 4 that the Bills topped 30 points, and the defense did its part in shutting down the woeful Jets offense. The positive game script was the first time in a while that favored a big game by Bass, and he came through with the same amount of points he scored in the previous month combined.
Look for Jason Sanders to be the next beneficiary of playing against the Jets, a team that has given up the sixth-most points to opposing kickers this season. The Dolphins should create a similar positive game script, and Sanders will likely finish as a top-10 play.
As we head into the Thanksgiving weekend, weather typically becomes an issue for kickers playing outside in the elements. Yet, that is not the case for Week 11 this season, as eight of my top 12 kickers play indoors.
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Fantasy Football Week 12 Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2023)
(Rostership percentages courtesy of Yahoo!)
Week 11 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers:
Wil Lutz (DEN) vs. Minnesota: 8% Rostered
Wil Lutz has quietly been the top kicker in the last two weeks, with 31 combined points against the Bills and Vikings. His home matchup against a Cleveland defense that ranks first in the league in total defense could lead to another big week for Lutz.
Cairo Santos (CHI) @ Detroit | 1% Rostered
Sometimes, the Vegas sharps completely miss the mark, and games get out of hand. That proved to be the case this week with the Bears and Lions, as the Lions barely won the game despite being 9.0-point favorites. Some head-scratching picks by Jared Goff helped this game go sideways, and Cairo Santos benefitted with four field goal tries.
Week 11 Dud Performances From Heavily-Rostered Kickers
Riley Patterson (DET) vs. Chicago: 75% Rostered
Just one week after finishing as a K1 despite being ranked outside the top 12, Patterson came back down to Earth with two points against the Bears. I felt stronger about this game than the prior week when I recommended Patterson, but sometimes game scripts go haywire, and that was the case here with Patterson.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | vs. WAS | 48.5 | -10.5 | 12 | 14 | 5 | 31 | Dome |
| 2 | 2 | Harrison Butker | KC | at LV | 43 | -8.5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 50 | Dome |
| 3 | 3 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at LAC | 47 | -4 | 15 | 28 | 7 | 50 | Dome |
| 4 | 7 | Riley Patterson | DET | vs. GB | 47 | -7.5 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 24 | Dome |
| 5 | 4 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. BUF | 48 | -3 | 10 | 23 | 9 | 42 | 46F, 7 MPH Wind, Chance of Rain |
| 6 | 11 | Blake Grupe | NO | at ATL | 42 | -1 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | Dome |
| 7 | 5 | Brandon McManus | JAC | at HOU | 47 | -1.5 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 32 | Dome |
| 8 | 6 | Jake Moody | SF | at SEA | 43 | -7 | 28 | 26 | 3 | 57 | 44F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 9 | 13 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at NYJ | 40 | -9.5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 37 | 47F, 9 MPH Wind, Chane of Rain |
| 10 | 8 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at PHI | 48 | 3 | 25 | 29 | 6 | 60 | 46F, 7 MPH Wind, Chance of Rain |
| 11 | 9 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. NO | 42 | 1 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 51 | Dome |
| 12 | 18 | Matt Ammendola | HOU | vs. JAC | 47 | 1.5 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 19 | Dome |
| 13 | 10 | Matt Gay | IND | vs. TB | 43 | -2.5 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 41 | Dome |
| 20 | 19 | Wil Lutz | DEN | vs. CLE | 34 | -2 | 24 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 40F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 14 | 12 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. BAL | 47 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 11 | 44 | Dome |
| 15 | 14 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. CHI | 45 | -3 | 32 | 13 | 10 | 55 | Dome |
| 16 | 15 | Matt Prater | ARI | vs. LAR | 44 | 1 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 65 | Dome |
| 17 | 16 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | at DEN | 34 | 2 | 14 | 20 | 19 | 53 | 40F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 18 | 25 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | at IND | 43 | 2.5 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 45 | Dome |
| 19 | 17 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. SF | 47 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 44F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 21 | 20 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. KC | 43 | 8.5 | 23 | 8 | 29 | 60 | Dome |
| 22 | 21 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. PIT | 34 | 1.0 | 4 | 24 | 24 | 52 | 47F, 9 MPH Wind, Chane of Rain |
| 23 | 22 | Nick Folk | TEN | vs. CAR | 36 | -4 | 31 | 1 | 27 | 59 | 52F, 9 MPH Wind, Chance of Rain |
| 24 | 30 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at TEN | 36 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 46 | 52F, 9 MPH Wind, Chance of Rain |
| 25 | 23 | Lucas Havrisik | LAR | at ARI | 44 | 1.5 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 59 | Dome |
| 26 | 24 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | vs. MIA | 40 | 9.5 | 29 | 0 | 30 | 59 | 47F, 9 MPH Wind, Chane of Rain |
| 27 | 26 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at MIN | 43 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 20 | 63 | Dome |
| 28 | 27 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at CIN | 34 | -1 | 17 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 47F, 9 MPH Wind, Chane of Rain |
| 29 | 28 | Anders Carlson | GB | at DET | 47 | 7.5 | 30 | 5 | 21 | 56 | Dome |
| 30 | 29 | Joey Slye | WAS | at DAL | 48.5 | 10.5 | 22 | 22 | 12 | 56 | Dome |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Contrarian Kicker Plays
Based on the variables outlined above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be excellent plays in Week 12.
Jason Sanders (MIA) @ NY Jets | 51% Rostered
If you are looking for a high floor and high-ceiling play this week, Sanders against the Jets is your man. The Jets are a dumpster fire on offense and the Dolphins’ defense should have no issue forcing turnovers and creating short fields. In addition, Sanders plays against the Commanders in Week 13, which should be another great matchup.
Matt Amendola (HOU) vs. JAC | 10% Rostered
Matt Amendola boasts the lowest K score of the season, making him an interesting play this week despite not having the pedigree of the other kickers ranked above him. Pulling the trigger here may take some intestinal fortitude, but I would not be surprised to see the Houston kicker post 10 or more points on Sunday.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Nick Folk (TEN) @ Jacksonville | 25% Rostered
- ECR Rank: 15
- My Rank: 15
- Week 11 Finish: 25
This turned out to be my worst week of the season, with both of my kickers finishing tied for 24th. The Titans’ game against the Jags went lopsided early, and Nick Folk was held to just two extra points.
Jake Elliott (PHI) @ Kansas City | 58% Rostered
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 12
- Week 11 Finish: T24
This game turned out to be lower-scoring than expected, and Jake Elliott managed just three extra points. Elliott’s value right now is not as high as earlier in the season when the Eagles were finding it difficult to score TDs in the red zone. Still, he should bounce back this week in a favorable kicking matchup against the Bills at home.
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