If you are a fan of the nail-biting drama of a kicker making a game-winning field goal attempt as time expires, Week 10 proved to be a perfect storm with a record-setting six games ending with a field goal.
The week’s top performer, Jason Myers of the Seahawks, secured his spot atop the weekly rankings with a 43-yard kick with double zeros on the clock. It was just the second time this season that Myers topped nine fantasy points.
If you started one of the five kickers rostered in over 90% of Yahoo leagues, chances are you were not pleased with the results. None of those kickers finished as a top-five play, and only one kicker in the top 12 had an ownership percentage over 70%.
The most heavily rostered kicker not to make the top five and disappoint fantasy managers was Tyler Bass of the Bills. Despite ranking 24th on the year in points and six-straight games of six or fewer points, Bass continues to have a roster percentage of around 95%. Brett Maher has more fantasy points this season, and he was cut by the Rams back in Week 7.
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Fantasy Football Week 11 Kicker Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice (2023)
(Rostership percentages courtesy of Yahoo!)
Week 10 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers:
Jason Myers (SEA) vs. Washington | 58% rostered
Myers came out of nowhere with a monster 21-point performance this week, with five made field goals and an extra point. Considering it was just the second time he topped 10 points, it is difficult to recommend him for the rest of the season. But the talent is there, and Pete Carroll is a kicker-friendly coach with his decisions, unlike Dan Campbell in Detroit. I do like him this week against the Rams, but next week against the 49ers might be too much of a negative game script.
Matt Prater (ARI) vs. Atlanta | 1% Rostered
Matt Prater was at the bottom of my rankings for most of the season due to the overall downgrade of the Arizona offense with Kyler Murray out. Now, with Murray back, the Cardinals should move the ball more effectively and create more chances for Prater.
Week 10 Dud Performances From Heavily-Rostered Kickers
Younghoe Koo (ATL) @ Arizona | 95% Rostered
I’m considering renaming this the “Tyler Bass Award,” given to the widely rostered player who did not live up to expectations. The difference here is I think Younghoe Koo will bounce back and be a solid play the rest of the year. It was surprising to see Prater, and not Koo, score 18 points in this game, but sometimes, players just don’t get the opportunities you would expect.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 5 | Brandon McManus | JAC | vs. TEN | 40 | -6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 73F, 12 MPH Wind |
| 2 | 2 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. CIN | 43.5 | -3 | 13 | 28 | 9 | 50 | 49F, Rain, 3 MPH Wind |
| 3 | 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at CAR | 40 | -11 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 49 | 60F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 4 | 8 | Jake Moody | SF | vs. TB | 42.5 | -10.5 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 30 | 64F, 12 MPH Wind |
| 5 | 3 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. NYJ | 40.5 | -6.5 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 42 | 34F, Snow 16 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 4 | Riley Patterson | DET | vs. CHI | 45.5 | -9 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 39 | Dome |
| 7 | 6 | Evan McPherson | CIN | at BAL | 43.5 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 24 | 49 | 49F, Rain, 3 MPH Wind |
| 8 | 11 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. PHI | 47.5 | -2.5 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 52 | 46F, Rain, 12 MPH Wind |
| 9 | 7 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | vs. PIT | 38.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 45 | 44F, 14MPH Wind |
| 10 | 12 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at KC | 47.5 | 2.5 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 42 | 46F, Rain, 12 MPH Wind |
| 11 | 10 | Jason Myers | SEA | at LAR | 44 | -3 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 36 | Dome |
| 12 | 15 | Nick Folk | TEN | at JAC | 40 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 27 | 35 | 73F, 12 MPH Wind |
| 13 | 13 | Greg Joseph | MIN | at DEN | 43 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 38 | 47F, Rain, 10 MPH Wind |
| 14 | 9 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | at GB | 42.5 | -3 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 51 | 40F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 15 | 14 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. LV | 48 | -10 | 25 | 31 | 1 | 57 | 79F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 16 | 16 | Joey Slye | WAS | vs. NYG | 36 | -8.5 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 61 | 53F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 17 | 17 | Matt Prater | ARI | at HOU | 46.5 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 52 | Dome |
| 18 | 18 | Matt Ammendola | HOU | vs. ARI | 46.5 | -4 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 41 | Dome |
| 19 | 20 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | at SF | 42.5 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 45 | 64F, 12 MPH Wind |
| 20 | 21 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | at BUF | 40.5 | 6.5 | 9 | 0 | 29 | 38 | 34F, Snow 16 MPH Wind |
| 21 | 25 | Anders Carlson | GB | vs. LAC | 42.5 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 21 | 41 | 40F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 22 | 22 | Wil Lutz | DEN | vs. MIN | 43 | -2 | 22 | 19 | 23 | 64 | 47F, Rain, 10 MPH Wind |
| 23 | 27 | Lucas Havrisik | LAR | vs. SEA | 44 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 14 | 66 | Dome |
| 24 | 23 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at CLE | 38.5 | 3.5 | 27 | 13 | 28 | 68 | 44F, 14MPH Wind |
| 25 | 24 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at DET | 45.5 | 9 | 30 | 27 | 20 | 77 | Dome |
| 26 | 19 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at MIA | 48 | 10 | 28 | 13 | 31 | 72 | 79F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 26 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | vs. DAL | 40 | 11 | 21 | 13 | 30 | 64 | 60F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 28 | 28 | Randy Bullock | NYG | at WAS | 36 | -8.5 | 14 | 2 | 32 | 48 | 53F, 14 MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Contrarian Kicker Plays
Based on the variables outlined above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be excellent plays in Week 11.
Nick Folk (TEN) @ Jacksonville | 25% Rostered
For a third straight week, I have Nick Folk in here based on his K Score and the fact that not many other K Scores jump out to me this week. The fact that they are six-point dogs to the Jags is a concern, but I think the game will stay close enough that Folk will get three field goal tries.
Jake Elliott (PHI) @ Kansas City | 58% Rostered
Jake Elliott was dropped in a bunch of leagues and is likely available in yours. Even with a bit of a cooling-off period, he is still the No.4 kicker in fantasy and should be a lock for eight points or more in this matchup.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Nick Folk (TEN) @ Tampa Bay | 18% rostered
- ECR Rank: 12
- My Rank: 5
- Week 10 Finish: 19
With three field goal tries in this game, the K Score accurately predicted the opportunity for Folk to be a top-12 play. Unfortunately, he missed a 50-yard try that would have moved him up to 11 points for the week.
Riley Patterson (DET) vs. LA Chargers | 21% rostered
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 2
- Week 10 Finish: Kicker Tied 8th
I made a bold statement in my last article that it was crazy to me that Patterson was ranked outside the top 12 based on his K Score and the Vegas over/under betting lines. That assumption proved true, and Patterson came through with 11 points. He could have had a bit more, but his head coach is more aggressive than others regarding going for it on fourth down in field goal range.
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