With nine weeks of action in the books, we have a decent sample size to look back on and review some of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. The top performer of the year so far is Dustin Hopkins, a journeyman nine-year veteran who is playing on his third team.
His 8.8 fantasy points per game are 1.2 more than his best season in the league, and he is on pace to lead the league with 48 field goal attempts.
Jake Elliott is close behind in second after posting the best nine games of his career. He is on pace for a career-best 34 field goals after a disappointing 2022 season in which he managed just 20 in 16 games. A big reason why Elliott is having his best fantasy season is the fact that despite having one of the best offenses in the league, the Eagles have not been as efficient in the red zone this season.
The leader in the clubhouse for rookie of the year is Brandon Aubrey of the Cowboys, who is a perfect 19 for 19 on the season. The Cowboys made a risky play going with a former professional soccer player as their placekicker despite no NFL experience, but that risky move looks to have paid off.
The biggest bust of the year has to be Daniel Carlson of the Raiders. After finishing as a top-3 player in each of the last three seasons, Carslon is nearly a full three points worse per game than his best year in 2020.
Of the top five players based on average draft position (ADP), only Harrison Butker and Justin Tucker rank in the top 12 at the position, yet all four of the top five players by ADP have a roster percentage over 80%, while six of the top 12 kickers are available in 30% of leagues or more
The moral of the story: too many people are content with drafting and staying with a kicker, even to the detriment of their fantasy team.
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Fantasy Football Week 10 Kicker Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice (2023)
Week 9 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers
(Rostership percentages courtesy of Yahoo!)
Chase McLaughlin (TB) @ Houston | 1% rostered
After a disappointing string of three games in which he failed to top seven fantasy points, McLaughlin erupted with 16 points in a shootout with the Texans. He is too sporadic of a player to recommend on a weekly basis, but he has a quite favorable K Score of 37 points at home against the Titans this week. I would not be surprised to see another double-digit performance.
Nick Folk (TEN) @ Pittsburgh | 20% rostered
The savvy veteran continues to get it done, with 11 fantasy points on the road against the Steelers. He now has ten or more points in six of his eight games. As long as Will Levis does not implode against the Bucs, look for Folk to once again be a strong play in Week 10.
Week 9 Dud Performances From Heavily-Rostered Kickers
Harrison Butker (KC) @ Miami | 99% rostered
We had more than a few players to choose from this week, with five players rostered in over 80% of leagues posting six or fewer fantasy points. The worst of the group was Butker, who managed just three extra points in a win over the Dolphins in Germany. I would not panic here and would still keep playing Butker.
Tyler Bass (BUF) @ Cincinnati: 94% rostered
I hate picking on Bass, but he continues to disappoint, and fantasy owners continue to roster him at an elite level. In his last five games, Bass has 18 fantasy points combined. The top performer of the week, Younghoe Koo, posted 19 points against the Vikings.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | vs. NYG | 38 | -16 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 33 | Dome |
| 2 | 14 | Riley Patterson | DET | at LAC | 49 | -1 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 26 | Dome |
| 3 | 4 | Blake Grupe | NO | at MIN | 41 | -3 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 36 | Dome |
| 4 | 2 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. CLE | 38 | -6 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 60 | 52, 7 MPH Wind |
| 5 | 12 | Nick Folk | TEN | at TB | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 85F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 8 | Brandon McManus | JAC | vs. SF | 45 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 43 | 75F, Rain, 14 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 3 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. HOU | 48 | -7 | 14 | 23 | 25 | 62 | 53F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 8 | 5 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | at ARI | 42 | -1 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 45 | Dome |
| 9 | 6 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. DEN | 46 | -7 | 11 | 29 | 5 | 45 | 35F, Rain, 12 MPH Wind |
| 10 | 7 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. DET | 49 | 1 | 26 | 30 | 15 | 71 | Dome |
| 11 | 9 | Jake Moody | SF | at JAC | 45 | -3 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 41 | 75F, Rain, 14 MPH Wind |
| 12 | 10 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | at BAL | 38 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 18 | 43 | 52, 7 MPH Wind |
| 13 | 11 | Matt Gay | IND | at NE | 43 | -1 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 38 | TBD |
| 14 | 17 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. TEN | 38 | -1 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 37 | 85F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 15 | 13 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. WAS | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 52F, Rain, 10 MPH Wind | ||
| 16 | 15 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | at LV | 27 | 0 | 31 | 58 | Dome | ||
| 17 | 16 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. GB | 38 | -3 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 43 | 48F, Chance of Rain, 9 MPH wind |
| 18 | 18 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at CHI | 38 | 4 | 31 | 15 | 28 | 74 | 48F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 19 | 19 | Matt Prater | ARI | vs. ATL | 42 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 50 | Dome |
| 20 | 20 | Wil Lutz | DEN | at BUF | 46 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 45 | 35F, Rain, 12 MPH Wind | |
| 21 | 21 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. NYJ | 36 | 1.5 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 44 | Dome |
| 22 | 22 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. NO | 41 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 35 | Dome |
| 23 | 26 | Anders Carlson | GB | at PIT | 38 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 46 | 48F, Chance of Rain, 9 MPH wind |
| 24 | 23 | Joey Slye | WAS | at SEA | 28 | 20 | 17 | 65 | 52F, Rain, 10 MPH Wind | ||
| 25 | 24 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at CIN | 48 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 53F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 26 | 25 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. CAR | 38 | -4 | 31 | 25 | 19 | 75 | 48F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 27 | Chad Ryland | NE | vs. IND | 43 | 1 | 24 | 28 | 27 | 79 | TBD |
| 28 | 28 | Randy Bullock | NYG | at DAL | 38 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 32 | 56 | Dome |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 7th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 25. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 9.
Nick Folk (TEN) @ Pittsburgh | 18% rostered
I’m going back to the well again on Folk. The Bucs have given up the 11th most points to opposing kickers and Folk has been great in games where he has a sub-30 K Score.
Riley Patterson (DET) vs. LA Chargers | 21% rostered
This one is a head-scratcher for me. He is playing indoors in a game with one of the highest over-unders of the week, and his team is favored by one. Oh, and his K Score is the best of the week. Why the fantasy community has him outside the top 12 is beyond me.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Nick Folk (TEN) @ Pittsburgh | 18% rostered
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 9
- Week 9 Finish: 5
For the second straight week, the K Score worked to perfection with a top-5 play. Last week it was Koo, and this week it was Folk on the road against the Steelers. Folk is someone I like again this week against a Bucs team that has given up the 11th most points to opposing kickers. As long as Will Levis does not turn the ball over a ton, Folk should be able to be a top-12 play.
Kai”imi Fairbairn (HOU) vs. Tampa Bay | 15% rostered
- ECR Rank: 12
- My Rank: 8
- Week 9 Finish: Kicker Tied 18th
I would like to put an asterisk next to this one due to the fact that Fairbairn got injured and would have been a top-10 play (a backup running back kicked a field goal in his place). But injuries happen, even to kickers, so I have to take my lumps and move on.
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