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Fantasy Football Trade Deadline Primer: Strategy & Advice (2023)

Fantasy Football Trade Deadline Primer: Strategy & Advice (2023)

The 2023 NFL trade deadline happened two weeks ago. However, most fantasy football leagues have their trade deadline over the next few weeks. That means it’s time to evaluate which players you should buy or sell.

Yet, the trade deadline isn’t about buying low and selling high. While it’s always a good idea to take advantage of buy low and sell high players, the trade deadline is about finding the players you do and don’t want on your roster for the fantasy playoffs.

One tool to help you figure out which players to trade for and trade away is the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool. This feature breaks down which players have the easiest and the most challenging schedule for the rest of the year.

Which players should you buy or sell before your league’s trade deadline passes? Here are 16 players I would buy or sell.

Fantasy Football Trade Advice

Buy – Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)

Fantasy players likely spent a top-30 draft pick on Mahomes this year. However, the superstar hasn’t lived up to the draft cost. He is the QB9, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. The former Texas Tech star had eight games with over two passing touchdowns last year. By comparison, Mahomes is on pace to have only four games with more than two passing touchdowns this season. Yet, the superstar is coming off the bye week and is prime for a second-half explosion.

Mahomes faces the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. They have been fantasy-friendly to opposing passing attacks this season. Furthermore, that game should be a high-scoring contest. Meanwhile, the superstar faces the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals in two of the final four fantasy football season games (not including Week 18). More importantly, Mahomes faces the New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cincinnati Bengals during the fantasy playoffs. Two of those teams will likely have given up on the season at that point, while the Bengals matchup could be a fantasy shootout.

Buy – Joshua Dobbs (QB – MIN)

Despite Patrick Mahomes having a down season, fantasy players likely won’t give him away from anything less than a blockbuster package. However, Dobbs is an excellent fallback option. Fantasy players might find the veteran on the waiver wire. The former Tennessee Volunteer was the QB12 during his eight weeks with the Arizona Cardinals, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game. Yet, he has had at least two touchdowns and 24.9 fantasy points in both games with Minnesota. More importantly, Justin Jefferson could return from a hamstring injury in Week 11.

Last week, Dobbs had nearly 270 passing yards and 25.1 fantasy points against a talented New Orleans Saints defense. The veteran faces the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears before the bye week. Then he takes on the Las Vegas Raiders before facing the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers during the fantasy playoffs. While none of those matchups are outstanding, Dobbs’ rushing ability and elite weapons make him a borderline must-start low-end QB1 for the rest of the year.

Sell – Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)

While Tagovailoa has had an impressive first half of the season, fantasy players must worry about the weekly inconsistencies. The star quarterback has averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game this year, a career-high. However, it’s only up from 17.8 fantasy points per game in 2022. More importantly, Tagovailoa has scored more than 21.7 fantasy points in nearly half his games. By comparison, he scored fewer than 17 fantasy points in the other five games this season, averaging 13.2 per contest. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane will return from an injury in Week 11, further limiting Tagovailoa’s upside.

Tagovailoa has averaged 30.3 pass attempts and 17.9 fantasy points per game in the four contests with Achane. By comparison, he has averaged 37.4 pass attempts and 18.8 fantasy points per game in the five contests without the rookie running back. More importantly, the star quarterback faces the New York Jets twice over the next few weeks. Furthermore, Tagovailoa’s playoff schedule is against the Jets, Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens – three of the top defenses in the NFL. Sell high on the star quarterback while you can.

Sell – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

Everyone, including myself, had high hopes for Lawrence this year after the Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley. Unfortunately, the offense has been a disaster. More importantly, the former Clemson star has averaged only 13.7 fantasy points per game this season, down from 17.4 in 2022. Lawrence averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns per game last year, totaling two or more in 41.2% of the contests. By comparison, he has averaged only one passing touchdown per game this season. The third-year quarterback is on pace to have only four games with two or more touchdowns in 2023.

The former Clemson star has had more games without a passing touchdown (two) than games with more than one touchdown (one) since Week 1. More importantly, his rest of the season schedule is awful. He gets the Tennessee Titans this week. Hopefully, Lawrence has a bounce-back performance, and fantasy players can sell high. The former Clemson star faces the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Carolina Panthers during the final four weeks of the fantasy football season. All three teams rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points surrendered to quarterbacks.

Buy – Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)

After a couple of poor performances coming off the high ankle sprain, Ekeler has been outstanding lately. Over the past three weeks, the superstar running back has averaged 1.3 touchdowns and 19.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, scoring 19.5 or more in every contest. More importantly, he has regained his role in the passing game. Ekeler had nine total receptions in his first three games this season. By comparison, the superstar has 13 receptions over the past three weeks, totaling four or more twice, including last week.

Trading for Ekeler won’t be cheap, as the Chargers have one reliable weapon in the passing game other than the superstar running back – Keenan Allen. That means the team will continue to lean on Ekeler on the ground and in the air. Meanwhile, his rest of the season schedule is appealing. He faces the Las Vegas Raiders, Buffalo Bills, and Denver Broncos in the fantasy football playoffs. All three rank in the top 10 in explosive run rate allowed over the first 10 weeks. Furthermore, the Raiders and Broncos have been top-10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Buy – Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)

McKinnon is rostered in under a third of ESPN and Yahoo leagues, making him potentially a league-winning addition off the waiver wire. However, fantasy players in deeper redraft or dynasty leagues should acquire the veteran running back. Every year, the Chiefs limit his workload early in the season before turning him loose in the second half. McKinnon has played under 42% of the snaps in every game this year. By comparison, he played at least 47% of the snaps in all but two games over the final eight games of the fantasy football season in 2022.

Furthermore, he played most running back snaps during the playoffs last year. More importantly, McKinnon has a 21% target per route run rate, while Isiah Pacheco has a 22% rate over the first nine games despite running fewer routes (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the veteran faces the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cincinnati Bengals over the final four weeks of the fantasy season. Three of those teams rank in the top 13 in receptions allowed to running backs this season. McKinnon had a receiving touchdown against the Bengals last year.

Sell – Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)

Unfortunately, the 2023 season has been a nightmare for New York. Injuries and poor production have made an already unfriendly fantasy offense into a dumpster fire. Daniel Jones is out for the year. Tyrod Taylor and Darren Waller likely won’t return with the team looking ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft. That means Saquon Barkley is the only Giants player left worth rostering. Yet, he has struggled the past two weeks with Tommy DeVito under center, averaging only 9.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite averaging 5.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Opposing defenses will do everything possible to limit the superstar running back. Meanwhile, Barkley’s rest of the season schedule is awful for fantasy players. He faces the New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams during the fantasy playoffs. All three teams rank in the top 10 in the fewest fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Furthermore, Barkley has his bye week almost right before the fantasy playoffs start. Hopefully, he has a strong performance against the Washington Commanders this week, allowing fantasy players to sell semi-high on the running back.

Sell – James Cook (RB – BUF)

Fantasy players had high hopes for Cook, given all the preseason hype. The Bills recently signed Leonard Fournette to the practice squad. He should have a role moving forward. However, Cook has struggled even without Fournette taking the field. After averaging 6.1 yards per rushing attempt over the first three weeks, the second-year player averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt from Week 4 through Week 9. Furthermore, he scored fewer than 7.9 half-point PPR fantasy points in all but two of those matchups. Unfortunately, his role in the receiving game hasn’t saved his fantasy production.

More importantly, Cook’s rest of the season schedule is awful. He faces the New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles before the team’s bye in Week 13. Then, the second-year player takes on the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in his first two games off the bye. Therefore, Cook will face three top-tier run defenses over his next four matchups. With no goal-line work combined with a lack of consistent touches in the passing game, now is the time to trade away the former Georgia star.

Buy – Brandin Cooks (WR – DAL)

It’s time to accept reality for those with Tony Pollard on their roster – the Cowboys have become a pass-happy team. CeeDee Lamb has been on a historical run over the past few weeks. However, Cooks is the wide receiver fantasy players want to trade for. The veteran will be less expensive than the superstar, even coming off his nine receptions on 10 targets for 173 receiving yards and 27.8 half-point PPR fantasy points performance in Week 10. Cooks has a touchdown in three of the past four games despite a limited target share.

Since Dallas has unleashed their passing attack starting in Week 6, the veteran has scored 12.7 or more fantasy points in all but one contest. Last week, Cooks led the team in receiving yards (173) and averaged more fantasy points per target than Lamb (2.8 vs. 2.4). Hopefully, the Cowboys continue to feature the veteran wide receiver. Meanwhile, he has an excellent rest-of-season schedule. Cooks faces the Washington Commanders in Week 12 and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 before taking on the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and Detroit Lions during the fantasy playoffs.

Buy – Demario Douglas (WR – NE)

The Patriots are heading into their bye and might end up benching Mac Jones. While their offense is a disaster, Douglas has been outstanding the past few weeks. Since returning from a concussion, the rookie has been the WR32, averaging 7.3 targets and 8.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, the former Liberty star has been New England’s best weapon in the passing game since losing Kendrick Bourne to a torn ACL. Over the past two weeks, Douglas led the team in receptions (11), targets (16), and receiving yards (139).

Meanwhile, the Patriots’ 2023 season is all but officially over. If the season ended today, they would have the third-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Therefore, New England will be playing for the future. Douglas should be their featured target in the passing game, regardless of who plays quarterback. More importantly, the rookie has an excellent rest-of-season schedule. He faces the New York Giants in Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14, and the Denver Broncos in Week 16. With the bye being this week, now is the time to acquire the rookie wide receiver.

Sell – Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

Washington’s offense has been outstanding and frustrating for fantasy players this season. Sometimes, Sam Howell is electric, and McLaurin sees double-digit targets. Other times, the second-year quarterback has 312 passing yards with only 33 yards coming from the star wide receiver like last week. While he hasn’t been as big of a bust as Jahan Dotson, McLaurin hasn’t lived up to his draft price. Unfortunately for fantasy players, Howell doesn’t lean on the star wide receiver and instead spreads the ball around to everyone on the offense.

McLaurin has been a solid low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for fantasy players, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game this season. However, his schedule has been fantasy-friendly, including two matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles. He scored 32.2% of his fantasy points for the year against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, McLaurin has an awful fantasy playoffs schedule, taking on the Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers. Furthermore, his bye is in Week 14, meaning fantasy players won’t have the receiver in a potential win-or-go-home matchup.

Sell – Elijah Moore (WR – CLE)

If you haven’t dropped Moore from your roster yet, now is the time to trade him away for the best available offer. The former New York Jet is coming off his best performance of the year, totaling five receptions on seven targets for 44 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 12.9 half-point PPR fantasy points. By comparison, he averaged only 3.6 receptions on 6.3 targets for 33.8 receiving yards, zero touchdowns, and 5.1 fantasy points per game before last week’s contest. More importantly, Moore has struggled to produce despite being second on the team in targets this year.

Unfortunately, last week’s success was a one-hit wonder. The Browns have an awful rest-of-season schedule for wide receivers. While fantasy players should hold onto Amari Cooper because of his elite talent and high target volume, Moore is a must-trade before your league’s deadline. Cleveland faces the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, and New York Jets in the fantasy playoffs. Sell high on Moore while you can. A week or two from now, fantasy player will likely cut him from their roster if they haven’t already.

Buy – Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

Many believe T.J. Hockenson could be the TE1 for the rest of the season. Yet, I’d rather target Andrews at the trade deadline. The star tight end is coming off an awful performance against the Cleveland Browns, totaling two receptions on four targets for 44 receiving yards and 5.4 half-point PPR fantasy points. His performance is disheartening after he had two receiving touchdowns and 22.5 fantasy points in the earlier matchup against the Browns this year. However, the former Oklahoma star had been playing well, averaging seven targets and 14.9 fantasy points per game over the previous three contests before the matchup against Cleveland.

More importantly, Andrews has an appealing rest-of-season schedule. Unfortunately, the Ravens have their bye in Week 13. However, their next two matchups are against the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams rank in the top six in fantasy points per game surrendered to tight end this season. Meanwhile, Andrews faces the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins during the fantasy football playoffs. Only the 49ers rank as an unfriendly matchup for the superstar tight end. If you can flip any tight end besides Travis Kelce or Hockenson into Andrews, that’s a move you must make.

Buy – Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

Hopefully, fantasy players grabbed McBride off the waiver wire a few weeks ago. If he is still available in your league, he has league-winning upside at the tight end position. The former Colorado State star has been outstanding. He has averaged seven receptions on 9.3 targets for 82.7 receiving yards and 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the past three weeks despite playing with three different quarterbacks. More importantly, McBride led the team in receptions (eight), targets (nine), and receiving yards (131) in Kyler Murray’s season debut.

While Zach Ertz is eligible to come off injured reserve after the Week 11 matchup, McBride should remain the featured tight end. Arizona is playing for the future, and the second-year tight end has been outstanding. More importantly, his fantasy playoff schedule is excellent. He faces the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15. However, McBride scored a modest 8.3 fantasy points in the earlier matchup against the division rivals this year. Meanwhile, he faces the Chicago Bears in Week 16 and Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17. They have been two of the more fantasy-friendly teams to tight ends in 2023.

Sell – Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)

Unfortunately, Goedert has a fractured forearm and will reportedly miss four weeks. The injury will make trading the star tight end difficult. However, it’s a move fantasy players should explore making before the fantasy trade deadline. Goedert has been inconsistent this season, scoring more than 6.8 half-point PPR fantasy points in only two games. Philadelphia’s passing attack flows through A.J. Brown, leaving the star tight end to compete with DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift for the leftover targets. More importantly, Goedert suffered a similar injury last season and wasn’t the same when he returned.

Last year, the former South Dakota State star suffered a small fracture in his shoulder in the Week 10 matchup. He was playing well before the injury, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game over his last two games. However, Goedert averaged only 7.3 fantasy points per game in the three games after returning from the injury. More importantly, the veteran has an unappealing fantasy playoff schedule with matchups against the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals. If you have Goedert and depth at wide receiver, try to package him and a WR3 for Trey McBride or Jake Ferguson.

Sell – Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)

C.J. Stroud is the heavy favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and is in the MVP conversation. Therefore, it makes sense for fantasy players to want a piece of Houston’s offense. Yet, now is the time to sell high on Schultz. The veteran tight end has averaged 11.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the past four contests, scoring 14.1 or more twice. However, the Texans haven’t had all four of their wide receivers in any of those games. Hopefully, Nico Collins will return this week, giving Stroud all four of his wide receivers for the first time since Week 5.

Meanwhile, Schultz has an unfriendly fantasy matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this week. They have been one of the top teams at slowing down tight ends this season. More importantly, the veteran has an awful fantasy football playoff schedule. He faces the Cleveland Browns in Week 16. They have given up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year. Furthermore, Schultz takes on the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 and Week 17. While the Titans struggle to slow down wide receivers, they have held tight ends to the second-fewest fantasy points per game in 2023.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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