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Players to Buy
Joe Burrow had an impressive day passing the ball, completing 31 out of 44 passes for 348 yards. He didn’t throw any interceptions and had a passer rating of 108.9. Burrow threw 2 touchdown passes, which were crucial for the Bengals’ success.
Tee Higgins led the receiving corps with 9 targets (two red-zone) and caught 8 passes for 110 yards (21% Target share, 33% air yard share).
Tyler Boyd received 5 targets, catching 3 passes for 56 yards.
Tight end Tanner Hudson also received 5 targets and caught 4 passes for 45 yards.
Ja’Marr Chase had 8 targets (two red-zone targets), catching 4 passes for 41 yards (19% Target share). Did get banged up during the game, which may have reflected in his subpar outing. Buy low.
Tony Pollard led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 51 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Pollard received 5 targets and caught 3 passes for 12 yards. 77% snap share.
And do not be fooled by the TD-less box score. Pollard SCORED. But it was called back due to an illegal formation penalty from the 2-yard line. Next play Dallas threw a TD.
The schedule is there for the taking for Pollard to finish the season on a strong note. Buy low before the window slams shut.
Bijan Robinson carried the ball 11 times for 51 yards, while Tyler Allgeier had 12 carries for 39 yards and scored one touchdown (4 red-zone carries). Robinson also saw 4 targets to Allgeier’s 3.
The majority of Allgeier’s production came in the second half. He was sitting in the negative yardage in the first half. He had 3 carries for -4 yards to Robinson’s 6 for 19.
The Cardinals are up next for Atlanta, followed by a bye week, then the Saints, Jets and Buccaneers. Playoff schedule remains JUICY with Carolina, Indianapolis and the Bears Weeks 15-17.
And with the ELITE matchup versus Arizona, you have to buy-low on Bijan Robinson. Still was the first-half carry leader and ran a route on 57% of dropbacks. Team went away from him later on because he fumbled. However, he still logged a 61% snap share and continued to see some work in the fourth quarter before Allgeier took over and ran the ball 7 straight times before punching in his TD.
Routes, targets, snaps and matchup are all there for Bijan in Week 10.
Jonathan Taylor had 18 rushing attempts, gaining 47 yards at an average of 2.6 yards per carry. Taylor had 5 targets, catching all 5 passes for 22 yards and a touchdown. Zack Moss totaled 7 carries for 26 yards and was not targeted (just three routes run). Moss had 6 carries in the first half and drew 2 red-zone carries. JT had one red-zone carry, but it came at the 1-yard line. He got stuffed for a loss. Next play they took a 5-yard penalty.
Still an overall positive development for JT who saw his snaps increase again and out-touched Moss 23 to 7.
Brandon Aiyuk contributed 5 receptions for 109 yards, averaging 21.8 yards per catch. 29% Target share. Dude is a straight alpha WR and it doesn’t matter when Samuel comes back.
Buy him. 29% Target share and league-leading 49% air yards share this season. No. 4 overall in total weighted opportunity.
The Jaguars, Buccaneers and Seahawks round out the next three weeks for the 49ers, followed by Eagles, Seahawks (again) and Cardinals.
Davante Adams had 1 first half target…finishing with 7 total (28% Target share). But only 4 catches for 34 yards and 0 TDs. Still ran a route on 96% of dropbacks. Adams still had all the great peripherals you want from a WR, so I’d be looking to buy low on the talented No. 1 WR.
A.J. Brown had 5 targets, nobody else had more than 2 (Dallas Goedert) in the first half. Brown was the leading receiver with 9 targets (39% Target share), catching 7 passes for 66 yards and a touchdown.
DeVonta Smith received 3 targets and caught all 3 passes for 51 yards, including a touchdown.
Goedert had 4 targets, catching 3 passes for 50 yards (hurt toward end of the game). Goedert is set to miss time and is an injured reserve candidate after suffering a fracture in his forearm.
We saw last year that the Goedert injury fueled Smith to a fantasy WR1 overall finish. Rinse and repeat folks. Buy Smith while he is on the bye week and get a fantasy WR1 for the remainder of the season.
Javonte Williams toted the rock 10 times in the first half to McLaughlin’s 2 back in Week 8.
He ended the day with 27 carries for 85 yards. 30 total touches. 9 red-zone touches.
Juggernaut Javonte is BACK.
Additionally, McLaughlin contributed with 4 carries for 33 yards.
Williams WAS effective as a receiver out of the backfield, catching all 3 of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown. McLaughlin saw two targets and Samaje Perine earned 3.
Williams finished with a 63% snap share. Trending WAY up after leading the Broncos in routes run (tied with Perine).
Cooper Kupp had 1 target. Puka with 4 targets. 8 pass attempts. 3 completions. In the first half. Woof.
Kupp and Nacaua would finish with 7 targets each (26% Target share), as did Tutu Artwell. Brett Rypien also had a tough outing, completing just 13 of 28 passes for 130 yards. Kupp was the primary target, but he could only secure 2 receptions for 48 yards.
Kupp’s targets have been solid in back-to-back weeks, but the efficiency has been waning dramatically.
Let’s get Matthew Stafford healthy please.
Therefore, all Rams are buy lows, specifically with Nacua who can be acquired at a cheaper cost than Kupp. Just a strong bet on an uber-talented rookie WR. He also technically saw a team-high 8 targets in Week 9 due to penalties. Also owns a 32% Target share on the year.
The Rams get a bye week then Seattle. Then it’s Arizona, Seattle (again), Baltimore and Washington.
Tyreek Hill was a significant target for Tagovailoa, receiving 10 targets and catching 8 passes for 62 yards. 29% Target share. Jaylen Waddle contributed with 3 receptions for 42 yards on 6 targets (29% target rate per route run, nearly 100 air yards). Cedrick Wilson played more because of the injury to Waddle early on in the game. He’s a rare WR handcuff for Waddle/Hill.
Waddle’s a buy after a down game because his per route efficiency was still fantastic. Should be able to get closer to 100% healthy coming after the bye week. Waddle also had a 17-yard game wiped off the board by a penalty.
Miami has a Bye Week, Las Vegas, New York (Jets), Commanders, Titans, Jets (again) and Cowboys in the next 7 weeks.
DK Metcalf caught one pass for 50 yards (4 targets, 2 red-zone targets). Still want to buy-low on Metcalf.
This was a tougher matchup versus a fierce Ravens defense. The Commanders are next, followed by the Rams, 49ers, Cowboys and 49ers again. Buy.
He is on the cusp of an eruption game.
Through 8 healthy games this year, Metcalf still leads the Seahawks in receiving yards. Also has seen 8-plus targets in three of his last 5 games.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Michael Pittman received 8 targets and made 8 receptions for 64 yards (31% Target share). Josh Downs exited with a knee injury and no other Colts player saw more than 3 targets.
Pittman is going to drown in targets if Downs misses any more time.
Indianapolis takes on New England (Germany) next week, followed by a bye week, Buccaneers, Titans, Bengals and Steelers.
Zay Flowers only had 1 target despite leading the team in routes run. I’ll chalk it up to being a non-competitive game where they wanted to get OBJ the ball on his birthday. Buy low on the talented rookie after his worst game of the season. No worried in any capacity.
D.J. Moore received 5 targets and caught 3 passes for 44 yards. Lead in routes run. Like him as a buy-low targets ahead of some easier matchups and the return of his starting QB, Justin Fields.
The Panthers (TNF) Lions and Vikings are the next 3 matchups for Chicago before a Week 13 bye week.
Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 16 times for 66 yards (68% snap share) and dominated the route share. CEH was out, and the other Chiefs RBs combined for two carries. The team gained a total of 93 rushing yards with Patrick Mahomes also chipping in ground yardage.
Diontae Johnson was the standout receiver with 7 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown (9 targets, 31% Target share). He FINALLY scored a TD and our anytime TD hit on Thursday night football. YLTSI.
He has a 26% Target share through four games averaging 5-plus catches per game.
Tank Dell was exceptional, catching six passes for 114 yards and scoring two touchdowns (11 targets, 26%). Dell was targeted a team-high 7 times in the first half. Totaled 222 air yards for a 53% air yards share. 5th overall in weighted opportunity for Week 9. Led the team in routes run as he traditionally has done when healthy.
The ground game was led by Aaron Jones, who had 20 attempts for 73 yards and found the end zone with one touchdown. Think he’s finally fully healthy setting season-highs across the board. Jones led the team with 6 targets catching four for 26 yards. 6 red-zone carries. 57% snap share.
And the Packers won. He’s truly the engine for this offense.
Feel good about calling him a buy-low last week.
A.J. Dillon ended with 9 carries for 40 yards on just 40% of the snaps.
Rachaad White was the workhorse, carrying the ball 20 times (7 red-zone carries) for 73 yards and finding the end zone twice. Added four receptions for 46 yards. 80% snap share. After a slow start, White is starting to HEAT up. His receiving usage has really picked up.
James Cook had 6 carries for 20 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Latavius Murray carried the ball twice for a total of 4 yards. Cook received 4 targets (13%) and caught all 4 passes for 19 yards. Murray received 1 target and caught 1 pass for 6 yards. Backfield snap share was more split than in previous weeks with Cook earning 55% to Murray’s 45% snap share.
Leonard Fournette was not activated for this game. Cook is still a buy-low target for me. Over the last three weeks, Cook has out-touched Murray 41 to 15. And the Broncos’ exploitable run defense is up next.
Dalton Kincaid was targeted 11 times (34% Target share), making 10 receptions for 81 yards. He played 90% of the snaps and ran a route on 97% of dropbacks. This is ELITE tight end usage, that you don’t ever see. Tight ends don’t ever lead their teams in routes run.
In Week 7, Kincaid ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks while playing 61% of the snaps. In Week 8, he ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks while playing 84% of the snaps.
Wheels ARE up for the rookie tight end.
Mike Evans, known for his big-play ability, made the most of his 5 targets, contributing with four receptions for 87 yards. Chris Godwin finished with just 2 catches for 16 yards despite 7 targets (two in the RZ). Would buy low after a very strange game from Godwin. However would still like to sell Evans because I do think he is going to start to run cold in the TD department. But if you can’t get anything worthwhile, he’s a hold with the plus-matchups coming up.
The Buccaneers defense is a mess right now, and that is forcing more passing for Tampa.
The Titans, 49ers and Colts are ALL on the docket for the next 3 games for Tampa Bay.
Alexander Mattison had 16 carries for 44 yards playing a 56% snap share, while Cam Akers contributed with 8 carries for 25 yards. Akers left the game with an ankle injury, that was later reported as a potential torn Achilles. Guy can’t catch a break. The Vikings have one of the most favorable schedules for fantasy RBs over the rest of the season. Add Ty Chandler off waivers. And consider buying low on Mattison with the backfield all but his now that Akers is out of the way.
Jerry Jeudy was one of the primary targets in the passing game in Week 8. He had 6 targets, catching 2 passes for 50 yards, including a 39-yard touchdown reception. 31.6% Target share on 6 targets. Was on the receiving end of a total of 126 air yards. No. 1 in weighted opportunity in Week 8.
Sharp buy-low target off the bye week. He leads the team with a 23% Target share and 45% air yards share in his healthy games played this season.
Rashee Rice scored while running a route on 60% of dropbacks – same as last week. Only two targets but usage remained the best among Chief WRs with another season-high in snaps (68%). Hold through the bye week.
Christian Watson was the air yards leader but only drew 2 targets. Also suffered an injury during the game. Watson continues to draw air yards but to no avail. If he plays next week, hard to argue with the potential blow-up spot he’s against a beatable Steelers secondary. Romeo Doubs would be my highest-ranked Packers WR if Watson can’t go next week.
Nobody wants Watson or anything to do with the Packers at this point. But the usage is there to still acquire a WR with a week-winning upside. Buy low and then flip after the massive game comes.
The Steelers, Chargers, Lions, Chiefs, Giants and Buccaneers are next for the GB Packers.
Josh Dobbs completed 20 of 30 pass attempts for 158 yards, with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Also carried the ball 7 times for 66 yards and scored one touchdown in the win coming in for the injured Jaren Hall. He got traded on Tuesday…
And although I don’t talk about QBs specifically in this article, I want to highlight the accomplishments by Dobbs. The fact that he did what he did – and what he has done up to this point – is astonishing. If I needed a QB for this week and beyond, I’d add him. Dobbs ranks second in rushing yards among QBs. The Saints cannot stop mobile QBs as indicated by Tyson Bagent‘s elite rushing in Week 9. With Justin Jefferson back in the fold sooner rather than later, Dobbs could be a fantasy football cheat code.
And he’s FREE on all waiver wires. $5,500 on DraftKings in Week 10.
Players to Sell
Alvin Kamara received 5 targets and caught 4 passes for 44 yards. Only had 9 carries for 26 yards (4 in the first half). Lowest touch number since returning from suspension (49% snap share). Also, just 2 red-zone carries.
Jamaal Williams had 3 targets and caught 2 passes for 6 yards. 3 carries.
Taysom Hill was targeted 5 times (twice in the red zone), making 4 receptions for 13 yards and a touchdown. Also led the team in rushing with 11 carries for 52 yards. Leading rusher in the first half. Threw a TD.
Does. It. All. And he remains a focal point in the red zone. 6 red-zone carries.
As I noted last week, I think selling Kamara is still the move to make. The snaps continue to dip as the Saints get more guys like Hill, Williams and Kendre Miller more involved. The heavy involvement from other RBs/Hill around the goal line also concerns me long-term, and that was apparent this past week.
Jahmyr Gibbs had 26 rushing attempts for 152 yards with an average of 5.8 yards per carry and 1 touchdown, with a long run of 27 yards in Week 8. Gibbs was also targeted 5 times (15% Target share) and caught 5 passes for 37 yards with an average of 7.4 yards per catch. 70% snap share as a clear-cut workhorse with David Montgomery sidelined. 3 red-zone carries.
Monty is expected to return after the Lions’ Week 9 bye week.
Like I said last week, this would be the prime time to SELL HIGH on Gibbs. Because this team still loves Montgomery.
Nico Collins added another touchdown reception (3 for 54), contributing to the Texans’ success (12% Target share, 2 red-zone targets). Totaled 8 targets with penalties included.
I’ve flip-flopped on Collins/Dell seemingly every week, even though I liked BOTH as buys last week. Hit.
However, the fact that it’s close between the two players, but Dell’s a rookie has me lean toward him ROS. Fill disclosure that I like both guys, but if I could sell Collins after his TD score despite low targets, I’d do so. And buy Dell after his massive game.
Chris Olave was targeted 8 times, made 6 receptions for 46 yards, and scored a touchdown (24% Target share). Sell high. He had one red-zone target in a game where Michael Thomas saw one target. That won’t be as one-sided going forward.
Ken Walker had 6 carries to Zach Charbonnet‘s 4 in the first half (2 in the red zone). Walker would carry the ball three times in the second half for a grand total of 19 yards. Walker had 2 targets to the rookie’s 1. And for the second straight game…Charbonnet out-snapped Walker because he ran more routes (55% vs 49%).
Rookie running back Keaton Mitchell led the way with 138 yards and a touchdown on 9 carries, while Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards also contributed with their rushing abilities.
In the first half, Mitchell, Edwards and Justice Hill all had 4 carries, so Mitchell’s numbers are not just garbage time related. Edwards ended with just 5 carries but converted both his red-zone attempts into TDs. Hill totaled 13 on the day, but most of that came late in the fourth quarter. 3 in the red zone late.
Hill played the most snaps and ran the most routes, but that’s because he was playing LATE with the backups.
There’s a chance that Mitchell might be carving out a larger role in this offense, so add him off waivers. And the fact that this backfield could turn into a three-headed monster wants me to sell high on Gus Edwards. The Browns are a brutal matchup in Week 10.
Raheem Mostert carried the ball 12 times for 85 yards and scored one touchdown. The team totaled 117 rushing yards. No other Miami RB saw more than 3 carries (Salvon Ahmed). Although it needs to be noted for a second straight game, Mostert was a zero in the passing game (1 target).
Jeff Wilson Jr. commanded four targets, and Ahmed earned 3. And unlike a week ago, Mostert actually ran fewer routes than Ahmed. He played 56% of the snaps for the second straight game.
Miami is showing that they want to use a committee and I don’t think it will work favorably for Mostert when De’Von Achane returns likely after the Week 10 bye week. Sell.
George Kittle operated as the primary target without Deebo Samuel, with 9 receptions for 149 yards. He averaged an impressive 16.6 yards per catch. 35.5% Target share. Same old song dance folks. You sell Kittle after these blow-up games that are cultivated based on teammate injuries. Considering the bye week, expect Samuel to be back sooner rather than later. He is already back at practice.
Brian Robinson led the team in carries with 18 and covered 63 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. He found the end zone once but also lost a fumble. Robinson had 2 targets and caught 1 pass for 4 yards.
Antonio Gibson contributed 34 yards on 6 carries, displaying his explosiveness and ability to pick up significant yardage. Gibson was targeted 5 times and made 5 receptions for 42 yards. He ran four more routes than Robinson (22 vs 18).
I like Gibson’s upside with his three-down skill set but there’s nothing from this game that suggests BRob has lost the starting job in any capacity. But because the talent gap is non-existent, I’d be looking to sell high on Robinson after his best game with a tough matchup on deck versus Seattle.
The Steelers’ rushing game was effective on Thursday night football against a stout Titans run defense, with Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris leading the way. They combined for 27 attempts, 157 yards, and one touchdown.
Warren had 11 attempts, 88 yards, 8.0 avg, 0 TD, 22 long. Harris had 16 attempts, 69 yards, 4.3 avg, 1 TD, 25 long. Warren also had a productive day as a receiver, catching all 3 of his targets for 25 yards. Harris totaled 2 receptions on 4 targets.
The snaps remained a split with the slight lean toward Najee at 58% to Warren’s 40%. The fact that Warren has looked great is awesome, but Harris isn’t playing bad enough to totally lose his grip as the starter. Still, I’d rather roster Warren with the chance he does carve out a larger role or if Najee suffers an injury. That also makes Harris a sell after he has scored for the second time in his last 3 games.
Harris still holds the main red-zone role in the Steelers backfield, with 4 red-zone carries to Warren’s zero.
Jerome Ford started and led with 20 attempts for 44 yards – 9 carries in the fourth quarter – while seeing heavy usage as a receiver. 23% Target share on a team-high 7 targets. 5 targets in the first half. 2 red-zone carries.
Kareem Hunt: 14 attempts, 38 yards, 2.7 average and 1 touchdown, as he tends to see the most RZ work. 3 red-zone carries.
Through the first half each guy had 6 carries. Pierre Strong also had 3 carries in the first half.
Hunt ended with only a 29% snap share to Ford’s 64% snap share.
Ford’s success rate continues to be abysmal – dead last in the NFL – but his take over as a highly involved receiver is encouraging for his fantasy value.
Considering touches/targets/snaps are more predictable and sticky week over week, I’d likely be a buyer/holder of Ford, while looking to sell HIGH on Hunt and his recent TD production of 5 scores in the last four games.
Also the Browns lost starting tackle Jedrick Wills to an MCL injury that will sideline him several games.
George Pickens ended with just 2 receptions on 5 targets for -1 yards (17% Target share). Came close to scoring but was ruled out of bounds (2 red-zone targets). He remains tough to trust with Johnson the alpha target earner in the offense. He’s a hold until he pops off another big game/TD.
The Steelers schedule: Packers, Browns, Bengals, Cardinals, Patriots and Colts
Chuba Hubbard out-touched Miles Sanders 10 versus 1 in the first half. Hubbard led the rushing attack overall with 16 carries, accumulating 58 yards at an average of 3.6 yards per carry. Sanders contributed with 6 carries for 39 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Almost exclusively worked in the second half with 5 targets to Hubbard’s six targets.
The fact that Sanders looked better in the second half as a rusher has me concerned, we might see more of a split moving forward. It was a near touch split in the second half which is hard to tell from the box score alone.
On the first drive, it was Hubbard with an attempt followed by Sanders with an attempt that was erased due to a penalty.
Tyler Lockett saw 7 of his 8 targets (32%) in the first half but was not efficient, 3 for 32. Lockett’s getting a solid Target share but his efficiency marks are showing signs of decline.
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