Fantasy Football Outlook: Zack Moss, Juwan Johnson, Rachaad White, Tank Dell

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Zack Moss: With the news of Jonathan Taylor‘s thumb injury, Moss resumes his previous role as Indy’s bell cow. In Weeks 2-5, he played at least 76% of the snaps weekly, averaging 24.2 touches and 129.3 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, Moss has been a king at tackle-breaking, ranking 18th in explosive run rate and 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Tennessee has been a team that you can run the ball against, ranking 15th in rushing yards per game, 10th in explosive run rate, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. The last time that Moss tangled with Tennessee, he had 25 touches, rumbling for 195 total yards. Moss could easily see a similar workload this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1

Juwan Johnson: Last week, with the Saints’ depth chart depleted of receiving options, New Orleans turned to Johnson. He had an 85% route run rate, an 18.4% target share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. These are all TE1 usage numbers. Johnson was already seeing more work with five red zone targets over the last four games he played. Johnson is a plug-and-play TE1 this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and yards per reception to tight ends. Detroit is also tied for the most receiving touchdowns per game given up to the position. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1

Rachaad White: White is the RB10 in fantasy, coming off arguably his best game of the season with his first 100-yard rushing game of the year. White has averaged 18.0 touches and 83.9 total yards per game. He is sixth in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. While White has piled up volume on the ground, ranking 11th in carries, his saving grace has been the pass game usage, ranking ninth in targets, third in receptions, and second in receiving yards among backs. While White’s tackle-breaking hasn’t been amazing, he has shown some signs of life here since Week 8. Over the last five weeks among 48 qualifying backs, he ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Carolina remains a team that you can run on. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 11th-highest zone success rate (White 53.8% zone) and the seventh-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt and rushing touchdowns. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1

Tank Dell: Dell opened the week with a DNP (calf). We’ll need to monitor his practice reports for the rest of the week. DeMeco Ryans didn’t sound worried about Dell, so we’ll proceed with the thought that he plays this week with his usual allotment of snaps. In the seven games this season, with Dell and Nico Collins both playing full-time roles, Dell has had a 21.4% target share, a 35.1% air-yard share, 2.60 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. Since Week 7, Denver has utilized single-high on 56.8% of their defensive snaps. In those seven games against single-high, Dell has had a 25.2% target share, a 37.2% air-yard share, 2.93 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share. Houston has slid Dell inside to the slot on three occasions this season, with Dell seeing a 34.3-42.2% slot rate. They could easily do that again this week to keep Dell away from Surtain. I’m projecting Collins to get the Surtain shadow, which means Dell will see Fabian Moreau (59.3% catch rate and 57.9 passer rating) and Ja’Quan McMillian (60% catch rate and 83.1 passer rating) all day in coverage. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2