Fantasy Football Outlook: Trey McBride, Elijah Moore, Jayden Reed, Adam Thielen

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Elijah Moore: Moore has had an 18% target share, an 18.8% air-yard share, 1.06 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share as the WR62 in fantasy. Last week, Moore flashed some hope for his rest of the season prospects with 44 receiving yards and a score. That was only the second game this season in which he has surpassed ten fantasy points. Moore will run about 51% of his routes against Keanu Neal (63.9% catch rate and 72.1 passer rating). Since Week 5, the Steelers have been abysmal at defending the slot, allowing the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Jayden Reed: Since Week 5, Reed has only had a 56% route run rate with an 11.8% target share, a 16.1% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. His usage and snap share have been all over the map all season. He has three games with six or more targets while also logging two weeks with less than 50% of the snaps played. The matchup this week is worth taking the swing if you need some upside from your WR3 or flex spot. Reed ranks 12th in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 5, the Chargers have allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards to slot receivers (Reed 80% slot). Week 11 Positional Value: High upside flex

Adam Thielen: The wild ride of the Thielen show over the first few weeks has come to a screeching halt. Since Week 8, Thielen has finished as the WR24, WR42, and WR35 in weekly fantasy scoring, eclipsing 50 receiving yards only once. Since Week 8, Thielen has had a 25% target share, a 19.8% air-yard share, 1.14 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. The usage numbers have still been present, but the production hasn’t. This could be a good bounce-back spot for him, though. Since Week 5, Dallas has allowed the highest PPR points per target and highest passer rating to opposing slot receivers. Thielen will run about 68% of his routes against Jourdan Lewis (65.2% catch rate and 134.1 passer rating). With how badly Bryce Young has struggled and with consideration of the outside corner matchups, Thielen is the only wide receiver worth discussing as a start this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR2/3

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, among 50 qualifying tight ends, McBride has ranked second in target share (31.5%), third in air-yard share (34.5%), second in YPRR (3.02), and first in first-read share (38.2%). He has been utterly filthy in nearly every efficiency and usage metric I can find. Since Week 6, Houston has had the third-highest rate of two high (60.3%). Since Week 8, against two-high (among 41 qualifying tight ends), McBride has been third in fantasy points per route run. Houston has allowed the highest fantasy points per game and the fifth-highest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: top-three TE