Fantasy Football Outlook: Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson, Brock Purdy, T.J. Hockenson

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

T.J. Hockenson: With Jefferson sidelined, Hockenson has seen a 27.9% target share and a 31.0% air-yard share with 2.29 YPRR and a 30.4% first-read share. Hockenson has been seeing Travis Kelce-level usage. Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy, ranking 18th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Look for Hockenson to get fed volume again this week, but his production with said pass game looks is in question. The Saints have been a tough draw for tight ends, allowing the fourth-lowest receiving yards per game and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1

Brock Purdy: Purdy is the QB14 in fantasy. After two down games, he rebounded in fantasy with a QB12 outing in Week 8. Purdy has four weeks with QB1 fantasy output this season. Looking at his full-season resume, Purdy has still been quite good for fantasy while we can poke some holes in his real-life quarterback play. Purdy is first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and third in fantasy points per dropback, but he is also 25th in highly accurate throw rate and 20th in hero throw rate. This speaks to Purdy being a serviceable real-life quarterback, but he’s not among the league’s elites. Since Week 6, Jacksonville has had the third-highest rate of zone coverage (82.2%). Against zone, Purdy has been ninth in first-read rate, so expect him to zero in on San Francisco’s zone-beater this week. Jacksonville has been a pass funnel, but not one that we should be heavily targeting. Since Week 5, they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game, but they also are tied for the most interceptions, the tenth-lowest passing touchdowns, and the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Purdy should be able to rack up the yardage this week, but touchdowns and efficiency will be the question marks. Week 10 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has fallen to RB24 in fantasy as the Falcons have continued with their usage shenanigans. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has played 74% and 61% of the snaps, averaging 12 touches and 60.5 total yards. I could rant here for days about the usage of this backfield, but I’ll take the high road. Robinson remains one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, ranking 12th in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. I will continue to invest in that type of talent despite the headache-inducing usage so far this season. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points via rushing and the 12th-highest yard per carry to zone runs (Robinson 65% zone) while also having the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Robinson is an RB1/2 that could finish in the top three this week if ole Arthur can get out of his own way. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tony Pollard: My preseason RB1 has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this season. He is RB18 in fantasy and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Since Dallas has skewed more pass-heavy (Week 6), Pollard has retained his lead role, playing at least 77% of the snaps if we take out the blowout win against the Rams. He has averaged 16.3 touches and 76 total yards. Among 45 qualifying backs, he is 20th in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Luckily for Pollard, the Giants remain putrid against the run. Since Week 5, they have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate and the highest yards before contact per attempt with the eighth-lowest stuff rate. Pollard ran for 5.0 yards per carry with two scores against this defense in Week 1. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1