Hello and welcome to the Week 11 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my fantasy football trends and takeaways for Week 11. Below we dive into a few notable players.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pass Rates
- Washington continues to air it out like they have Patrick Mahomes under center when, in reality, it’s Sam Howell. They are now one of two teams (Kansas City being the other) with a positive PROE in every game this season and are averaging a league-high 39.7 pass attempts per game. The issue is that there is little consistency in how these targets are being distributed. Over the last four weeks, the Commanders have five players with a target share between 10% and 20% with Terry McLaurin leading the team with a 21% target share over that span. The routes, however, remain fairly condensed between McLaurin (90% routes run rate over the last four weeks), Jahan Dotson (87%), and Logan Thomas (79%). One can hope that the allocation of targets to Howell’s best pass-catching options starts to condense. Until then, McLaurin is the one that I trust most in lineups.
- Action: buy Terry McLaurin, start Jahan Dotson as a boom/bust flex option, and hold Logan Thomas
- It felt almost too obvious that when Antonio Pierce — a former linebacker — took over as the Raiders’ interim head coach, that they would become a run-heavy team. In their past two games, they have PROE marks of -11.7% and -14.0%. Some of that has to do with the switch in quarterback from Jimmy Garoppolo to rookie Aidan O’Connell, who has thrown just 24 and 25 passes in those two weeks. Though the Raiders have been one of the more concentrated passing attacks this year, it was much better when Las Vegas was averaging over 32 attempts per game. This has adversely impacted Jakobi Meyers who, after averaging over nine targets per game to start the game, has gotten just eight targets in the last three weeks combined. Davante Adams has gotten the squeaky-wheel treatment with target totals of 7, 7, and 13 in the last three weeks. That said, the Raiders face a plethora of teams (Dolphins, Chiefs twice, Chargers, Vikings) to end the season that should push them to throw the ball, but until we see that change actually happen, Adams is the only Raiders pass-catcher I’m trusting in my lineups.
- Action: start only Davante Adams of the Raiders’ pass-catchers, hold Jakobi Meyers
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