Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Royce Freeman: Freeman was the lead back in Week 8 with 53% of the snaps and nine rushes for 44 yards. He ran more routes than Henderson, although he didn’t draw a target. If the Rams can get out to a lead this week, the work could tilt more in Freeman’s favor. Freeman has been incredibly impressive with the work he has received this season. Among 75 qualifying backs, he ranks 24th in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Freeman could run wild this week against a Packers run defense that has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game, the 14th-highest touchdown rate, and the fifth-most missed tackles to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4 with RB2 upside
Tank Dell: In Dell’s four full games this season, he has garnered an 18.2% target share, a 25.0% air-yard share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share (fourth on the team). Among 107 qualifying wide receivers, he is 27th in YAC per reception. Dell has only one red zone target this season, which came in Week 3. Dell will run about 61% of his routes against Jamel Dean (71.4% catch rate and 116.8 passer rating) and Carlton Davis (66.7% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3/4
Tyler Lockett: Lockett had lingering health questions all last week before dispelling all of them on Sunday. He played his third-highest snap share of the season (84%) with an 86% route run rate, a 24.3% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, and 2.45 YPRR. Overall, Lockett has a 20.8% target share, a 33.7% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 24.1% first-read share. Baltimore has utilized zone coverage on nearly 70% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, he leads the team with a 20.7% target share and a 35.4% air-yard share. His YPRR remains strong at 1.82, and his first-read share is 25.5% (Metcalf 25.6%). Lockett is 17th among wide receivers in red zone targets. Lockett will run about 63% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (62.5% catch rate and 68.4 passer rating) and Marlon Humphrey (72.7% catch rate and 122.9 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3
Rhamondre Stevenson: I’ve waived the white flag on Stevenson for 2023. He has averaged 15.2 touches and done very little with it (60 total yards per game). Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 55th in explosive run rate, 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 62nd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 4, Washington has done well with defending the ground game. They have yielded the tenth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if they can continue to operate at such a high level after trading away key cogs on their defensive line. Even against a degraded defensive line, I don’t have much faith in Stevenson. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3
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