Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Rashee Rice: Since Week 7, Rice has settled in with a 57.3% route run rate, a 13.8% target share, a 10.6% air-yard share (5.5 aDOT), 2.27 YPRR, and an 18.4% first-read share (second on the team). Rice’s short-area role will come in handy this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-most yards after the catch (YAC) and the fifth-most missed tackles. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, Rice ranks first in YAC per reception and 26th in missed tackles forced per reception. Rice will run about 58% of his routes against Kader Kohou (83.3% catch rate and 126.0 passer rating). The Dolphins have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside
Mike Evans: Evans is the WR14 in fantasy drawing a 21.5% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, and a 27.4% first-read share (second on the team). He has produced 2.47 YPRR while ranking tenth in deep targets among wide receivers. Evans has been the primary deep threat for Mayfield, so if he is looking to chuck it deep it should be Evans coming down with it. The Texans utilize zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league (79.6%). Against zone, Evans leads the team with a 21.8% target share, a whopping 40.8% air-yard share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share. Evans will run about 71% of his routes against Steven Nelson (67.9% catch rate) and Shaquill Griffin (69.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating). This sets up as a huge Evans week. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1/2
Gus Edwards: Edwards had a week to remember with 21 touches, 94 total yards, and three scores. Since Week 2, Edwards has averaged 14.8 touches and 71.6 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, Edwards ranks 32nd in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards is outside the top 30 backs in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunities as he shares the work with Justice Hill. Edwards owns the red zone work now, though, with 13 touches inside the 20 over the last three games (Hill four). Don’t expect the Gus Bus to come close to last week’s numbers against Seattle. Seattle has been a terrible matchup for backs as they have the eighth-highest stuff rate, ninth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 9 Positional Value: Low-end RB3
Trey McBride: McBride blew up last week with an 87.8% route run rate, a 37.8% target share, 2.64 YPRR, and a 46.4% FIRST READ SHARE. My jaw dropped when I read that first-read share. McBride’s talent is real. He is fifth in receiving grade and second in YPRR, behind only Travis Kelce. Against man coverage, he has a 30% target per route run rate and 2.04 YPRR. The Browns have played two elite tight ends this season. George Kittle had a 2.8% pass block rate against Cleveland, but he only produced one receiving yard on one reception (two targets). Mark Andrews, on the other hand, roasted them for 80 receiving yards and two scores. McBride just cooked the Ravens secondary with his monster Week 8 outing, and they had been lockdown against tight ends. I won’t make the bet that he can’t do it this week against the Browns. Week 9 Positional Value: TE1
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