Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Austin Ekeler: Since his return in Week 6, Ekeler has averaged 17.3 touches and 78.5 total yards. Since Week 6, among 58 qualifying backs, he has ranked 42nd in explosive run rate and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. Over his last seven games played, Ekeler has surpassed 80 total yards only twice. Ekeler likely won’t reverse this concerning trend in Week 13. Since Week 7, New England has allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and the third-lowest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Ekeler still probably sees 15-20 touches this week, and despite the bad matchup, if he falls into the end zone, he’ll finish as a top-15 back in fantasy. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1/2
Drake London: Since Week 2, London has had a 23.0% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. London has three WR2 or higher finishes this season. London is 19th in targets inside the 10-yard line with six looks. This is a brutal matchup for London. New York has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns to perimeter receivers this season. London will run about 74% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (64.9% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (73.5% catch rate and 81.5 passer rating). Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4
Brian Robinson: Robinson is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in opportunity share, 14th in weighted opportunities, 12th in carries, and 20th in red zone touches. He has averaged 15.2 touches and 78.1 total yards. His previously lucrative pass game role that helped prop up his fantasy production in Weeks 10-11 evaporated last week with Gibson back. Robinson also saw his snaps dwindle to only 45%. Robinson ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Miami has been a nightmare fuel matchup for backs with the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest missed tackle per attempt rate, and the fewest rushing yards per game allowed. Sit Robinson if you can, but most teams don’t have that luxury. Just understand he likely needs a touchdown to pay off this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB3
Puka Nacua: In the last four games with Kupp playing a full-time role, Nacua has had a 27.0% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 31.2% first-read share. He has also led the team, with 21.2% of his looks coming on designed plays (Kupp 3.8%). Since Week 7, Cleveland has trotted out single high at the highest rate (69.1%) in the NFL. In this four-game sample against single-high, Nacua has had a 25.8% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 3.28 YPRR, and a 30.2% first read share. Since Week 7, Cleveland has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2
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