Fantasy Football Outlook: Michael Pittman, Bijan Robinson, Chris Godwin, Jerome Ford

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Michael Pittman: With Minshew under center, Pittman has had a 28.5% target share, a 34.1% air-yard share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 37.0% first-read share. Pittman is the WR17 in fantasy and is tied for the second-most red zone targets in the NFL. Since Week 7, Tennessee has utilized zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate (75.6%). Since Week 6, with Minshew starting and Josh Downs playing at least 65% of snaps, Pittman has had a 22% target share, a 28.4% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share against zone. Pittman should eat again this week against a Tennessee secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Pittman will run about 70% of his routes against Sean-Murphy Bunting (65.5% catch rate and 87.3 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (72.3% catch rate and 122.5 passer rating). Week 13 Positional Value: WR1/2

Bijan Robinson: Hello, Bijan Robinson. Over the last two games, we haven’t seen any usage goofiness from the powers that be in Atlanta. I’m hoping that we are over that nonsense. Since Week 10, Robinson has averaged 69% of the snaps with 21 touches and 114.5 total yards per game. Robinson ranks 17th in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has seen 75% of the red zone opportunities for the backfield. Since Week 7, the Jets have been a neutral matchup for rushers, ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and 16th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Robinson 68.8% zone). Week 13 Positional Value: RB1

Chris Godwin: Godwin has endured a tough season as the WR41 in fantasy. Godwin hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points since Week 8 against Buffalo, which was only the second time all season he has surpassed 14 fantasy points in a game. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (63.8%). Against single-high, Godwin has a 22.7% target share, a 23.3.% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share. Among 123 qualifying receivers against single-high, Godwin ranks 39th in fantasy points per route run and 41st in expected fantasy points per route run. Carolina has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target this season to perimeter wide receivers, so maybe there is some hope Godwin has a mini bounce-back week. At this point in the season, I won’t be surprised if this is just another Evans game. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3

Jerome Ford: Ford has played at least 64% of the snaps in three of the last four games. In those three contests, Ford averaged 18.6 touches and 88.3 total yards. Ford is the RB25 in fantasy, ranking 17th in carries and 13th in targets. Ford has been one of the best tackle breakers in the NFL this season, ranking 19th in missed tackles forced and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Ford will be running uphill all day against a run defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, along with the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Ford is a volume play only. Week 13 Positional Value: RB3