Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Jonathan Taylor: Yes, Taylor flopped in a smash spot last week with 23 touches and only 69 total yards, but let’s not lose sight that he is back! Taylor is now the Colt’s workhorse back. After the slow ramp-up, Taylor played 74% of the snaps last week with a 67.9% route run rate and a 19.2% target share. Since Week 7, he has been seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor will need every bit of his efficiency this week against a tough Patriots run defense. New England has allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Taylor can compensate for the rushing worries with his pass game role, though, against a defense that has also given up the fifth-most receptions and the sixth-most receiving yards to backs. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1
Aaron Jones: Last week, Jones saw his highest workload and snap share of the season. He played 57% of the snaps with 24 touches and 99 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics still resemble those of a back who is not fully healthy. Jones had zero explosive runs while forcing only two missed tackles with 1.95 yards after contact per attempt. The sad thing is even in his diluted state, Jones is still better than A.J. Dillon. The Steelers are an exploitable matchup for Jones, even at less than full strength. Since Week 5, Pittsburgh has had the 12th-lowest stuff rate while ranking 17th in missed tackles per attempt and giving up the 13th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 67.3% zone). Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has underperformed versus expectation this season as the WR41 in fantasy. He has been a WR3 or better in only 50% of his games this season. Ridley has a 20.7% target share, a 39.8% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 24.8% first-read share. Since Week 5, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 55.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high Ridley has seen his numbers jump across the board with a 25.8% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 29.7% first read share. Ridley also leads the team in deep targets with 13 (Kirk seven), so if Lawrence is looking to attack this secondary deep Ridley will be the main weapon. Ridley will run about 84% of his routes against Charvarius Wards (59.6% catch rate and 77.6 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (69.1% catch rate and 76.8 passer rating). Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3
Marquise Brown: Brown is the WR32 in fantasy, ranking 15th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. Brown has had a 25.4% target share, a 39.6% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 30.9% first-read share. Brown has five games with WR2 or higher finishes this season. Since Week 6, A.J. Terrell (65% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating) has shadowed DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Terry McLaurin. Each of the receivers has surpassed 50 receiving yards in his primary coverage, and as a unit, they have scored three touchdowns. Brown could be shadowed by Terrell this week, but as recent history has shown, that’s not a bad thing. Week 10 Positional Value: WR2/3
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